Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE1872
2006-11-17 15:17:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

Belgrade Reaction to Status Decision

Tags:  PGOV PBTS KDEM PREL SR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2366
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RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1872/01 3211517
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171517Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9750
INFO RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 3585
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1248
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001872 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PGOV PBTS KDEM PREL SR
SUBJECT: Belgrade Reaction to Status Decision
Postponement


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SUMMARY
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001872

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PGOV PBTS KDEM PREL SR
SUBJECT: Belgrade Reaction to Status Decision
Postponement


--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) UN Special Envoy for Kosovo Martti
Ahtisaari's announcement on November 10 that he
would postpone presenting his proposal for the
status of Kosovo until after Serbian elections
was met with mixed reactions in Belgrade. While
President Tadic expressed some gratitude for the
delay, he also acknowledged that independence
appears to be the probable outcome for Kosovo's
status. Prime Minister Kostunica predictably
attacked Ahtisaari and said that Ahtisaari has
failed in his mandate, while other DSS members
characterized the delay as a chance to reopen
negotiations. The SRS, meanwhile, accused Tadic
and Kostunica of making a deal with Ahtisaari to
delay, and thus reduce the impact of the
potential loss of Kosovo on their parties during
the election. End Summary.

Ahtisaari Moves to Postpone Until After Elections
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) UN Special Envoy for Kosovo Martii
Ahtisaari announced after a meeting of the
Contact Group that he would delay a decision on
Kosovo until after Serbian parliamentary
elections, scheduled for January 21. Ahtisaari
had warned the Serbian leadership earlier in the
week that it needed to make a decision on
elections before the Contact Group meeting on
November 10. Ahtisaari also announced that he
would present his proposal "without delay" after
the parliamentary elections in January,
potentially delivering immediately a significant
issue to the newly elected parliament.

Tadic Reacts Positively to Delay
--------------


3. (SBU) President Tadic on Friday expressed
gratitude for delay, emphasizing that
postponement was useful for the democrats. Tadic
reiterated his position that artificially set
deadlines for a decision on future status was
neither contributing to the solution nor
stabilizing the situation in Serbia. Tadic also
suggested that Ahtisaari chose delay because
there is no unity within the Contact Group on the
direction of the future status of Kosovo. In a
more moderated statement to local press, Tadic
said that, though he would continue to fight
against Kosovo independence, the probable status

for Kosovo is closer to independence than any
other solution. Early election campaign planning
by the DS suggests that the democrats are
focusing on their message on integration with the
West and improving the daily lives of citizens in
Serbia, instead of trying to use Kosovo to garner
more votes.

DSS Looks to Undermine Ahtisaari Again
--------------


4. (SBU) Continuing with their usual attacks, the
PM's DSS mobilized after the announcement in an
effort to undermine Ahtissari's credibility in
the negotiations. Prime Minister Kostunica said
publicly on November 11 that the postponement was
actually an admission by Ahtisaari of his failure
to secure a sustainable resolution for Kosovo.
Kostunica also questioned the timing of the
decision, and accused Ahtisaari of stepping
outside of his mandate by concerning himself with
Serbian elections. Kostunica reiterated that
Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia and that any
move towards independence would violate the
territorial integrity of Serbia and endanger the
stability of the region. DSS vice-president
Aleksandar Popovic raised the stakes by
reiterating Kostunica's statements and suggesting
that delay was due to "the big 'No' of Russia."
Popovic also assessed that recognition of Kosovo
by NATO members would confirm that the NATO
bombing of Serbia was meant to separate Kosovo
from Serbia -- which would thereby force Serbia

BELGRADE 00001872 002 OF 002


to break diplomatic ties with those countries
that recognized an independent Kosovo.


5. (SBU) Other DSS members, including Kostunica's
advisor and negotiating team member Samardzic and
Coordination Center for Kosovo Chief Raskovic-
Ivic, took another view, seeing postponement as
an opportunity to continue the negotiations.
Samardzic said that postponement demonstrated
that artificial deadlines should not be imposed
on the process, and he called for the
negotiations to continue between Belgrade and
Pristina. Raskovic-Ivic said that Ahtisaari's
decision to postpone showed that the Serbian
position in the negotiations had improved.

Radicals Say Democrats Plotting with Ahtisaari
-------------- -


6. (SBU) SRS General Secretary Vucic accused
Tadic and Kostunica of collaborating with
Ahtisaari to organize a postponement of a
decision on Kosovo. Vucic said that Tadic and
Kostunica, because they expect that a decision on
Kosovo will be negative for Serbia, were working
with Ahtisaari to get him to delay his decision
until after the parliamentary elections in
January. The Radicals are probably banking on
their position in the elections improving if
Kosovo becomes independent before the elections,
and see Ahtisaari's announcement as a small
victory for the democratic bloc.

--------------
Comment
--------------


7. (SBU) Judging by the early reactions, Kosovo
will continue to be exploited as a central
campaign issue. Aside from the obvious SRS and
Socialist attacks, the DSS will continue to cite
the constitution, and the preamble, as evidence
that they have, and will continue to protect the
territorial integrity of Serbia and keep Kosovo
within Serbian borders. The DS appears more
realistic in what the final status of Kosovo will
be, and will probably avoid Kosovo as the main
part of their message. Nonetheless, the DSS and
others may be relishing the idea that Tadic, as
the only senior elected official continuing in
office before and after parliamentary elections,
could be a convenient scapegoat for the loss of
Kosovo.

POLT