SERBIAN ELECTIONS SET FOR JANUARY 21, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001854

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SR YI PREL
SUBJECT: SERBIAN ELECTIONS SET FOR JANUARY 21, 2007

REF: A) BELGRADE 1777; B) BELGRADE 1700; C) BELGRADE 1610;

D) BELGRADE 1590

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Early on November 10, the Serbian Parliament
adopted the constitutional law and set January 21 as the
date for new parliamentary elections, with presidential
elections mandated sometime before December 31, 2007.
Parliament is disbanded and Prime Minister Kostunica's
government continues in caretaker status without the G17
Plus ministers, whose resignations have now been formally
recognized. Separate cables will discuss reactions to the
postponement of Kosovo negotiations and the official start
of the election campaign. End Summary


Constitutional Law Adopted Early Friday Morning
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2. (SBU) The Serbian Parliament formally adopted the
constitutional law during a marathon session early Friday
morning, November 10 after the main parties-- the
Democratic Party (DS),the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) and
the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS)--reached agreement on
a timetable for elections. It was agreed that
parliamentary elections would be held on January 21, 2007
and that all other elections (Presidential, Provincial and
Local) would be held at some point before the end of 2007.
The Parliament set the end of 2008 as the deadline for
passing the many laws that are required under the new
Constitution, with passage of five key ones (Law on the
Presidency; Law on the Military; Law on Defense; Law on
Internal Security; and Law on Foreign Affairs) required
before Presidential elections can be scheduled.


3. (SBU) The SRS, DS and DSS all voted for the law, while
the G17 Plus voted against, pressing unsuccessfully for an
amendment that would have lowered the minimum amount of
time for elections from 45 to 30 days and allowed aDecember election date. The Socialists took the lad in
fighting off the G-17 plus effort, successully passing
their own amendment upping the timeable for elections from
45 to 60 days, effectivel ensuring a date in 2007.
Despite the fact that the session was mainly a formality
because an agreement between the main parties had been
reached ahead of time, the session lasted well into the
night, with parties verbally assaulting each other at all
levels.


4. (SBU) Speaker of the Parliament Markovic opened the
session by formally recognizing the letters of resignation
submitted by G-17 plus Ministers back in October. Once the
Constitutional Law was passed the door was opened for
President Tadic to officially confirm the date of elections
with a Presidential Proclamation, which he did later that
day. The law effectively recognizes that the government's
mandate is technically over (it is not a resignation); the
parliament was in effect disbanded the moment President
Tadic signed for new parliamentary elections. The
government remains in caretaker status and the G-17 plus
Ministries (Finance, Health and Agriculture) are now to be
headed by coordinators (other caretaker ministers) that
will be appointed at the next session of this caretaker
government. Since there is no parliament until after the
elections (barring a state emergency),there will be a
provisional budget for 2007, a form of continuing
resolution that Serbian law allows until March 31, 2007.
Press reports were suggesting that the government would
appoint Economy Minister Bubalo (DSS) as coordinator of the
Ministry of Finance.


5. (SBU) The Constitutional Law also mandated the
reappointment of certain governmental functions that were
designed to be protected from political influence,
effectively shortening the existing "technical mandates."
Thus, the law provides for the new parliament to re-appoint
the Governor of the Central Bank and the [Freedom of]
Information officer, an ombudsman-type appointment that
prevents the government from withholding official documents
from the public and which has repeatedly come into conflict
with Kostunica's Ministers. In addition, the law will
require the reappointment of all judges, including those at
the Special Courts responsible for War Crimes and Organized
Crimes.


6. (SBU) Given the enormous legislative task that the next

BELGRADE 00001854 002 OF 002


parliament will face on both appointments and legislation,
there is some murkiness as to when the government will
follow the provisions of existing laws (under the old
Constitution) and when it will decide to respect specific
provisions of the new Constitution that have not yet been
formally incorporated into legislation. To make matters
worse, the Presidency of the Constitutional Court is vacant
-- he recently retired and his replacement has yet to be
named -- with only the President of the Court empowered to
convene the court if there is a dispute over legal
interpretations of the Constitution.

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Comment
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7. (SBU) Political parties across the spectrum did not
waste any time in launching their parliamentary campaigns.
Amidst all the self-congratulatory statements following the
debate on the constitutional law, it is hard not to see the
January 21 date as a defeat for the DS. Tadic lost on his
push for concurrent elections and also on his efforts to
force elections before the end of the year. In exchange,
the DS received an extended time frame for Presidential
Elections, from May 31 (the Radical position) to the end of
the year.


8. (SBU) The political convenience of many provisions
written into the Constitutional Law could mean problems
down the road. The Governor of the Central Bank has
already criticized the decision to effectively shorten his
mandate but his protests are likely to be in vain. NGO
groups have taken up against the re-appointment of the
Information Officer, protests that are also likely to have
limited effect. Most problematic, however, is that the
Constitutional transition, with its long cross-cutting list
of required legislation and appointments, could allow
considerable political manipulation of sensitive issues.
This will give the caretaker government and the President
new opportunities to remain passive or to take unexpected
action on the difficult issues we are likely to face in the
months ahead.

POLT