SERBIAN ELECTIONS SET FOR JANUARY 21, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001852

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SR YI PREL
SUBJECT: SERBIAN ELECTIONS SET FOR JANUARY 21, 2007

REF: A) BELGRADE 1777; B) BELGRADE 1700; C) BELGRADE 1610; D)

BELGRADE 1590

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Early on November 10, the Serbian Parliament adopted the
constitutional law and set January 21 as the date for new
parliamentary elections, with presidential elections mandated
sometime before December 31, 2007. Parliament is disbanded and
Prime Minister Kostunica's government continues in caretaker status
without the G17 Plus ministers, whose resignations have now been
formally recognized. Separate cables will discuss reactions to the
postponement of Kosovo negotiations and the official start of the
election campaign. End Summary


Constitutional Law Adopted Early Friday Morning
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2. (SBU) The Serbian Parliament formally adopted the constitutional
law during a marathon session early Friday morning, November 10
after the main parties-- the Democratic Party (DS),the Serbian
Radical Party (SRS) and the Democratic Party of Serbia
(DSS)--reached agreement on a timetable for elections. It was
agreed that parliamentary elections would be held on January 21,
2007 and that all other elections (Presidential, Provincial and
Local) would be held at some point before the end of 2007. The
Parliament set the end of 2008 as the deadline for passing the many
laws that are required under the new Constitution, with passage of
five key ones (Law on the Presidency; Law on the Military; Law on
Defense; Law on Internal Security; and Law on Foreign Affairs)
required before Presidential elections can be scheduled.


3. (SBU) The SRS, DS and DSS all voted for the law, while the G17
Plus voted against, pressing unsuccessfully for an amendment that
would have lowered the minimum amount of time for elections from 45
to 30 days and allowed a December election date. The Socialists
took the lead in fighting off the G-17 plus effort, successfully
passing their own amendment upping the timetable for elections from
45 to 60 days, effectively ensuring a date in 2007. Despite the
fact that the session was mainly a formality because an agreement
between the main parties had been reached ahead of time, the session
lasted well into the night, with parties verbally assaulting each
other at all levels.


4. (SBU) Speaker of the Parliament Markovic opened the session by
formally recognizing the letters of resignation submitted by G-17
plus Ministers back in October. Once the Constitutional Law was
passed the door was opened for President Tadic to officially confirm
the date of elections with a Presidential Proclamation, which he did
later that day. The law effectively recognizes that the
government's mandate is technically over (it is not a resignation);
the parliament was in effect disbanded the moment President Tadic
signed for new parliamentary elections. The government remains in
caretaker status and the G-17 plus Ministries (Finance, Health and
Agriculture) are now to be headed by coordinators (other caretaker
ministers) that will be appointed at the next session of this
caretaker government. Since there is no parliament until after the
elections (barring a state emergency),there will be a provisional
budget for 2007, a form of continuing resolution that Serbian law
allows until March 31, 2007. Press reports were suggesting that the
government would appoint Economy Minister Bubalo (DSS) as
coordinator of the Ministry of Finance.


5. (SBU) The Constitutional Law also mandated the reappointment of
certain governmental functions that were designed to be protected
from political influence, effectively shortening the existing
"technical mandates." Thus, the law provides for the new parliament
to re-appoint the Governor of the Central Bank and the [Freedom of]
Information officer, an ombudsman-type appointment that prevents the
government from withholding official documents from the public and
which has repeatedly come into conflict with Kostunica's Ministers.
In addition, the law will require the reappointment of all judges,
including those at the Special Courts responsible for War Crimes and
Organized Crimes.


6. (SBU) Given the enormous legislative task that the next
parliament will face on both appointments and legislation, there is
some murkiness as to when the government will follow the provisions
of existing laws (under the old Constitution) and when it will
decide to respect specific provisions of the new Constitution that
have not yet been formally incorporated into legislation. To make
matters worse, the Presidency of the Constitutional Court is vacant
-- he recently retired and his replacement has yet to be named --
with only the President of the Court empowered to convene the court
if there is a dispute over legal interpretations of the
Constitution.

BELGRADE 00001852 002 OF 002



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Comment
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7. (SBU) Political parties across the spectrum did not waste any
time in launching their parliamentary campaigns. Amidst all the
self-congratulatory statements following the debate on the
constitutional law, it is hard not to see the January 21 date as a
defeat for the DS. Tadic lost on his push for concurrent elections
and also on his efforts to force elections before the end of the
year. In exchange, the DS received an extended time frame for
Presidential Elections, from May 31 (the Radical position) to the
end of the year.


8. (SBU) The political convenience of many provisions written into
the Constitutional Law could mean problems down the road. The
Governor of the Central Bank has already criticized the decision to
effectively shorten his mandate but his protests are likely to be in
vain. NGO groups have taken up against the re-appointment of the
Information Officer, protests that are also likely to have limited
effect. Most problematic, however, is that the Constitutional
transition, with its long cross-cutting list of required legislation
and appointments, could allow considerable political manipulation of
sensitive issues. This will give the caretaker government and the
President new opportunities to remain passive or to take unexpected
action on the difficult issues we are likely to face in the months
ahead.

POLT