DEL PONTE CONFIDENT OF MLADIC HANDOVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000176

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: CLOSURE OF ICTY
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR ICTY
SUBJECT: DEL PONTE CONFIDENT OF MLADIC HANDOVER

Classified By: DCM Roderick Moore, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (c) Summary: Despite public criticism of SaM efforts to
date on ICTY cooperation, del Ponte told assembled
ambassadors she is convinced she will have Mladic in The
Hague by the end of February - but only if the EU exerts
maximum pressure on Kostunica by conditioning SAA talks on
Mladic's being handed over. We should encourage the EU to do
so, and recommend an early certification decision by the
Secretary as additional pressure. End summary.

SIPDIS


2. (c) ICTY chief prosecutor Carla del Ponte's public
remarks following her February 6 visit to Belgrade were
typically gloomy, belying an uncharacteristically upbeat
appraisal in a private briefing to the diplomatic community
at the end of the visit. Del Ponte met with a host of GoS
and GoSaM officials during her one-day visit, including PM
Kostunica, intel chief Rade Bulatovic, ICTY Cooperation
Council chair Rasim Ljajic, local war crimes special
prosecutor Vladimir Vukcevic, and DEFMIN Stankovic.
Following her meetings, the prosecutor issued a brief
statement to the press critical of Serbia's lack of
cooperation to date. She stressed that Mladic is still at
large and that ICTY access to documentation is still
insufficient. Kostunica's remarks following the visit,
meanwhile, emphasized Serbia's national interest in
fulfilling its obligations to the Tribunal.


3. (c) Del Ponte's typically critical public remarks,
however, were balanced by a much more hopeful assessment
during talks with resident ambassadors at the end of her
visit. A visibly excited del Ponte told the group she is
convinced/convinced she will have Mladic in The Hague by the
end of February. She said her assessment is based on the
results of her private meeting with Kostunica, at which intel
chief Rade Bulatovic was also present, wherein she said
Kostunica passed her a document with detailed information and
specifics about the government's efforts and progress that
she said gave her confidence that Mladic could be wrapped up
(she did not go into further detail, but noted, inter alia,
that the government had shown proof that they had tracked
Mladic "much more recently" than 2003). She noted that her
confidence is somewhat tempered by past experience with
unfulfilled expectations from the GoS, but said she
nevertheless believed Kostunica could deliver Mladic soon.
Del Ponte highlighted that Kostunica told her there would be
little domestic fallout from the arrest, as recent polls
showed a majority of Serbs were in favor of Mladic's arrest.
She noted, though, that they did not discuss the likely
reaction from the Radical party.


4. (c) Del Ponte caveated, though, that Kostunica would
only come through if the pressure remained on the GoS to
deliver. She said it would be critical for the EU to
continue to seriously threaten the suspension of SAA
negotiations as the most credible pressure point to keep the
GoS to its word. She said she had already made this pitch to
Enlargement commissioner Ollie Rehn directly, and urged local
ambassadors to support this request in their capitals. She
emphasized that this was uncharacteristic of her - usually
she declined to take a stand on political pressure, as such
activity is out of her sphere of authority. She stressed,
though, that the current moment is different - that it
represents perhaps the last, best window of political
opportunity to capture Mladic before other events (read
Kosovo and Montenegro) would make any such action impossible.
Del Ponte said once Mladic is in The Hague, Tolimir would
quickly follow, and Karadzic would likely also follow soon
thereafter.


5. (c) Further details: del Ponte said it looks most
likely that Karadzic is currently in Montenegro, but admitted
there was no solid lead in this regard, and that other
reports had him in Serbia. Regarding her meeting with DEFMIN
Stankovic and VBA chief Kovac, she said it was significant
that the military for the first time admitted that it
supported Mladic until 2002, something they had been
unwilling to say before. She said she was briefed by Kovac
on his oral report to the Supreme Defense Council, and that
the report had uncovered some 300-400 people who had been at
one time in the Mladic support network from 1997-2004. She
also said it now appeared civilian and military intelligence
services were finally working together on Mladic. On
documents, she said she was pleased with the proposal to
improve access by ICTY investigators, and said they would
test the system in the coming weeks.


6. (c) COMMENT: Del Ponte's excitement was palpable - she
truly seems to think Mladic's transfer is a possibility by
the end of the month. She is equally convinced, though, that
it will only happen if the pressure is kept on at a high
level. We strongly support her proposition that the EU
seriously threaten repercussions on the SAA talks if Mladic
is not delivered by the end of February, and would encourage
Washington to engage in Brussels to that effect. In addition
to coordinating with the EU, we recommend Washington announce
that the Secretary will make a certification decision at the
end of February, and that her decision will be driven by
Belgrade's actions on Mladic. In the event Mladic is not
handed over by the end of February, we would recommend the
Secretary not certify and that certain direct assistance to

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the Serbian government be suspended.
POLT