MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM NOTES: TALKS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000170

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM NOTES: TALKS
AGREE ON MONITORING MECHANISMS- WEEK 4

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

REF: Belgrade 0143


1. (U) Summary: Expert-level talks opened January 31, and
quickly reached agreement that the EU, COE, OSCE, and
OSCE/ODHIR will be invited to monitor the referendum
campaign and vote. The sides are still far apart on
financing and rules for media coverage, and talks on those
subjects will continue February 6. EU Envoy Lajcak called
the GoS to engage the GoM on post-referendum issues, a call
that was quickly rejected by advisors to Serbian PM
Kostunica. Ambassador Polt will meet with Montenegrin
leaders February 8 (his previously scheduled visit was
delayed after the train crash January 23). End summary.

Monitoring Agreed


2. (U) Expert-level talks opened January 31, discussing
monitoring, financing, and media coverage of the referendum
campaign. By February 1, the two blocs had already agreed
on international monitoring, and specified that that the EU,
COE, OSCE, and OSCE/ODHIR will be invited to monitor the
referendum campaign and vote.

Blocs Still Far Apart on Media, Finance


3. (U) Despite long sessions, the blocs' experts remain far
apart on rules for media coverage of the campaign and
financing for the campaign. The pro-Independence (GoM)
bloc generally supports a focus on transparency (a view
shared by the private media in respect of their actions).
The pro-Union (opposition) bloc is looking for stringent
legal controls on both media and financing; the private
media has objected that new media laws would impinge on
press freedoms guaranteed by recent legal reforms. The
talks will resume February 6.

Political Talks Continue, Sotto Voce


4. (U) Ambassador Lajcak continued high-level political
discussions on January 31 and February 1. After meeting
with Lajcak, President Vujanovic announced his readiness to
delay the proposed February 7 session of Parliament.
Vujanovic had said that he would request the Parliament to
initiate the referendum on that date, the earliest date
after the expiration of the Constitutional Charter's three-
year moratorium on independence. Vujanovic will make the
decision to delay or not on February 6, telling Lajcak he
would opt for delay if that would facilitate agreement in
the talks. The length of the delay is unclear, with
Vujanovic's chef de cabinet telling post that it would be
"no more than three or four days" -- but later unconfirmed
media speculations said the rescheduled session would be on
February 28.


5. (U) Paralleling the expert talks, the pro-Union bloc has
held onto their "demand" for a "national unity" government
or, failing that, positions in the security services and in
(non-existent) media control boards. Lajcak indicated no
movement away from his earlier rejection of such demands
(ref).

Lajcak Lectures Government of Serbia


6. (U) Appearing on Montenegrin TV February 1, Lajcak
criticized the GoS for refusing to discuss Serbia-
Montenegrin relations post-referendum, while it allows the
Serbian Justice Minister to repeatedly assert that
Montenegrins in Serbia will lose all rights if Montenegro
becomes independent. Lajcak reiterated those statements
February 2 in addressing the OSCE Permanent Council in
Vienna. An advisor to Serbian President Tadic agreed with
Lajcak's proposal, but advisors to Serbian PM Kostunica
sharply rejected the idea, saying Lajcak had exceeded his
mandate.

Majority Question in Background


7. (SBU) Per Lajcak's ordering of the agenda for the talks,
no focused discussion of the majority that will be needed
to approve independence was held. Media speculation is
rampant, however, and has increasingly focused on requiring
55 percent of votes cast to approve independence, so long
as the threshold of 50 percent of all registered voters
cast votes. UK Ambassador Gowan told post that his talks
January 30 with both blocs showed broad acceptance of the
55 percent requirement, although the opposition (pro-Union)
bloc is unwilling to state that publicly.

EU Ministerial Council Recognizes Referendum Right

8.(U) In their January 30 meeting, attended by Lajcak, the
EU Council of Ministers reiterated previous positions on
the referendum. They recognized the right of Montenegro to
hold the referendum, reiterating support for the December
report of the Venice Commission on referendum standards.
It also called on "all political forces in Montenegro to
cooperate" and "refrain from unilateral actions that might
reduce the chances of success in the dialogue."

Comment


9. (SBU) The international community continues to urge both
blocs to stay committed to the dialogue - a point stressed
by the UK and French Ambassadors in visits to Podgorica
January 30. For the pro-Independence bloc, that means
showing flexibility - Vujanovic's offer to delay the
February 7 parliamentary session is (one) step in that
direction. For the pro-Union bloc, it is simply sticking
with the talks and recognizing that Lajcak is first and
foremost a mediator, not an arbitrator. For now at least,
the opposition shows no indication that it will publicly
agree on the key issue of the majority needed to approve
independence (although they might acquiesce to an "imposed"
standard),a conundrum to which the EU has the main key.
End comment.

POLT