Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BELGRADE128
2006-01-27 13:45:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

EU Envoy Tempers Optimism on Montenegro

Tags:  PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW 
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UNCLAS BELGRADE 000128 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW
SUBJECT: EU Envoy Tempers Optimism on Montenegro

Referendum - Looks for U.S. Support

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000128

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW
SUBJECT: EU Envoy Tempers Optimism on Montenegro

Referendum - Looks for U.S. Support


1. (SBU) Summary: Preparations for the Montenegrin
referendum are slowly progressing, but the two sides
remain far apart on key modalities. After a month of
talks, little has been decided, but discussions will
begin to quicken as pro-Independence and pro-Union
forces hopefully resolve the less complicated rules by
the end of January. Nonetheless, critical issues, such
as the date, required majority, and form of the
question, will challenge all sides--and the EU envoy--
to reach an acceptable compromise. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Ambassador Miroslav Lajcak, the EU envoy
responsible for facilitating preparation of the
Montenegrin referendum, met with the Ambassador on
January 25 to discuss his progress. After a month on
the job, Lajcak was less optimistic than previously
about reaching an accord between the pro-Independence
and pro-Union sides. He said that the Montenegrin
government does not trust him or the opposition and the
pro-Union forces are making some unrealistic demands
e.g. a power sharing arrangement at all levels. He
added that, "if it wasn't for us, they wouldn't agree
on anything." Additionally, Serbian Prime Minister
Kostunica told Lajcak that Belgrade would work on
behalf of the opposition and could not remain neutral.
[Embassy Comment: Vladeta Jankovic, Kostunica's point
man on the referendum, told poloff that he expects the
Serbian Orthodox Church to use its resources to fight
against independence and support Serb interests in
Montenegro. End Comment].


3. (SBU) Lajcak said that the three key issues will be
the date, percent of voters required to approve the
ballot, and wording of the question. On the majority
needed to approve the ballot, Lajcak is considering two
proposals: a winner-take-all, two question format and a
55 percent supermajority. He noted, however, that the
earlier could be contentious if the margin of victory
is close, while the latter would guarantee at least a
10 percent victory margin and discourage an opposition
boycott. He did not discuss the potential wording of
the question(s),although said that he planned to begin
discussions with the two sides the week of February 2.
He admitted that it was unlikely that the two sides
would agree on all these issues, however, and concluded
that "most critical issues will need to be imposed
because the two sides will never agree." The EU was
looking to U.S. support when it came to applying the
necessary pressure.


4. (SBU) Lajcak highlighted the progress he is making
and next steps. He said that the Montenegrin
government was playing by the rules and was making
concessions. He said that the opposition, other than
the Serbian Peoples Party, was also engaging in talks
in good faith. In response to his request on the
referendum's key questions, both sides submitted well-
written responses. Next week, Lajcak intends to
provide the two sides with his analysis of their
responses and request more specific reactions. He also
plans to submit a proposal on the less controversial
rules (such as media access and observation),on which
he expects agreement.


5. Comment: Lajcak will need to rapidly accelerate
progress in order to bridge the sizable gulf between
both sides' positions in order to reach an accord
within the short time span (measured in weeks) allotted
for talks. We will stay in close touch with Lajcak and
his team. During the Ambassador's upcoming visit to
Montenegro, we will probe the status of the discussions
further and support any reasonable EU approach
POLT