Serbia and Montenegro Reaction to Rugova Death

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000106

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SR MW YI
SUBJECT: Serbia and Montenegro Reaction to Rugova Death

SUMMARY
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1.(U) Though anticipated, the death of Kosovar President
Ibrahim Rugova from lung cancer on Saturday January 21 has
garnered widespread media speculation about Rugova's
successor and how his passing will affect the Kosovo status
negotiations. With the notable exception of PM Kostunica,
Serbian leaders have issued generally dignified condolence
statements, and President Tadic has publicly announced that
he has sought approval from the United Nations Mission in
Kosovo (UNMIK) to attend the funeral. END SUMMARY.

CONDOLENCES
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2.(U) As of Monday January 23, all major Serbian leaders
with the notable exception of PM Kostunica had issued
statements of condolence. Serbian President Boris Tadic
said he respected Rugova as a politician, and that his
death was a loss for the Albanians of Kosovo. He also said
he hopes Rugova's death will not hurt efforts to find a
peaceful solution for the future status of Kosovo through
compromise. (note: Tadic also framed his condolences
within the context of his self-declared responsibilities as
President of all of Serbia, including Kosovo. see below)
Serbia and Montenegro President Svetozar Marovic said that
"Rugova was known and respected as a proponent of peaceful
means in the achievement of political goals." He added
that he hopes Rugova's style of politics will continue to
dominate among politicians in Kosovo and the province's
interim government institutions. Foreign Minister Vuk
Draskovic announced that he asked SRSG Jessen-Petersen to
convey his condolences to Rugova's family Kosovo PM Bajram
Kosumi and Assembly President Daci. Montenegro's Prime
Minister and President both sent letters of condolence to
Kosovo Premier Bajram Kosumi.

PREDICTIONS
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3.(U) A somewhat discordant public statement came from the
president of the Kosovo Coordination Center, Sanda
Raskovic-Ivic. She told the media she feared Rugova's
successor could go about seeking statehood for Kosovo in a
much more aggressive manner. Singling out Rugova as the
only leader other than Veton Surroi who used peaceful means
to achieve his goals, she said, "I am afraid that Ibrahim
Rugova's spot could be taken by an individual whose method
of operation will be military action, open aggression that
could lead to unwanted events, bloodshed, conflict, or at
the very least incidents in Kosovo and Metohija."

4.(SBU) Members of the Serbian negotiating team for Kosovo
status gave their private reaction to Rugova's death during
a luncheon hosted by the DCM for visiting EUR/SCE Deputy
Director. Tadic and Kostunica advisors Leon Kojen and
Slobodan Samardzic believed that Assembly President Nexhat
Daci would serve at least as Acting President for a
significant period. Given the political complications of
electing a successor to Rugova, Daci represented the path
of least resistance, since Rugova's Democratic Alliance of
Kosovo (LDK) party would likely want to hold on to the
presidency. The advisors did not express serious concerns
about the possibility of a Daci presidency, though they
believed he would be less flexible than Rugova on
decentralization. Raskovic-Ivic and others noted that
Fatmir Limaj, recently acquitted by the ICTY on charges of
war crimes, was gaining support. She echoed her public
comments that Rugova was the only Kosovo politician who had
not resorted to violent means to achieve his goals, adding
that the choice of a successor would be a clear signal to
Belgrade about whether the Albanians intended to cooperate
in the final status discussion. All of the advisors said
they hoped the Vienna decentralization discussion which had
been scheduled for January 25, would get underway soon.

TADIC ASKS UNMIK TO ATTEND
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5.(U) On January 23, President Tadic sent a letter to SRSG
Soren Jessen-Petersen asking for assistance for Tadic to
attend Rugova's funeral. He simultaneously gave an
interview to Beta news agency explaining his reasons for
wanting to attend the funeral. In the statement, Tadic
said, "Common courtesy dictates that the president of
Serbia should travel to Kosovo, which is a part of the
territory of this country and its integrity, to pay due
respect to the political representatives of the Albanian
people." Tadic said also that he wanted to demonstrate
that Serbia is "prepared to face in a European way, the
political plans of those have different and opposing ideas,
emphasizing, that "I will not be the president of one
little xenophobic country, frightened of the world, but of
an open European, prosperous country which communicates
with the world and gives respect even to those which have
different political opinions."

6.(SBU) The Belgrade UN office told us they had forwarded
the letter to Pristina, and that UNMIK would contact the
Rugova family to seek approval for Tadic to attend. The
office was skeptical, however, that the family would
approve, particularly because Tadic's statement may be
interpreted as political.

COMMENT
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7.(SBU) We should not dismiss President Tadic's impulse to
attend the Rugova funeral as a reflexive effort to assert
Serb sovereignty over Kosovo. While this is clearly a
factor in his move, the fact that he did this for his
domestic constituency should not overshadow the more
important potential conciliatory nature of such a gesture.
END COMMENT.

POLT