AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH NEW DPM

C O N F I D E N T I A L BELGRADE 001030

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/16
TAGS: PGOV PREL INRB SR
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH NEW DPM
DULIC-MARKOVIC


Classified by Ambassador Michael C. Polt,
reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador's June 23
meeting with newly-appointed Deputy PM Ivana
Dulic-Markovic revealed the new DPM as a deeply
idealistic technocrat eager for positive change
but uncertain of how to use her new position to
effect it. The Ambassador encouraged Dulic-
Markovic to speak her conscience to try to
energize a population poorly served by its
leadership in recent months. We expect Dulic-
Markovic to be extremely receptive to our policy
priorities, and we will encourage her to use her
bully pulpit to speak out on behalf of Serbs who
want to move forward. End Summary.


2. (c) Newly-appointed Deputy Prime Minister
Ivana Dulic-Markovic invited the Ambassador to
her office June 23 to exchange views on hot
button policy issues and to seek the
Ambassador's input into how she could help move
the pro-reform agenda forward. She informed the
Ambassador she will maintain the portfolios held
by her predecessor, including EU integration,
serving on the Kosovo negotiating team, and
economic issues.


3. (c) Dulic-Markovic said she is firmly
committed to Serbia's future in Europe and the
Euro-Atlantic community, but she sees "two
Serbias" existing side by side - a (largely
silent) majority, which wants to see Serbia
progress, and a strong, vocal minority that is
eager to side with the Radicals. She knows, she
added, that the majority of Serbs are
disappointed with their government, and she
believes it is necessary to energize them by
addressing core concerns like creating economic
opportunities and strengthening judicial reform.
To this end, she said, she and her G-17 Plus
party leaders are formulating a road map of
priorities for Serbia, including operational
steps, to present to Tadic and Kostunica.


4. (c) Dulic-Markovic expressed dismay over
Kostunica's recent remarks to the Ambassador and
in the press that attempted to shift blame for
his recent failures onto the international
community. She surmised that the PM may be
looking for a "way out" of his current difficult
political situation through nationalist
retrenching. The Ambassador urged her to speak
with Kostunica about his upcoming trip to
Washington to meet the Secretary, expressing his
disappointment with the PM's refusal to meet
jointly with Tadic. The Ambassador emphasized
that Kostunica will need to present the
Secretary constructive ideas about the future,

SIPDIS
and not repeat well-worn legalistic arguments
about Kosovo and Serb victimhood. Dulic-
Markovic promised to speak with him, but
cautioned she was leery of pushing him too hard,
as she fears he is increasingly willing to side
with the Radical (SRS) Party.


5. (c) On Kosovo, Dulic-Markovic recognized
the inevitability of independence by the end of
the year. She agreed that it would be difficult
to explain the outcome to the Serbian people if
the government continued to maintain its firm
stance against independence. She thought the
government's current planning looks to be to
hold elections in the spring, in the hopes they
can use elections to forestall a status decision
on Kosovo until after elections are held. The
Ambassador reiterated that a status decision was
likely by the end of the year, and the
international community would not allow Serbian
internal politics to drive the timetable.
Dulic-Markovic said she is prepared to call
elections anytime, but said her influence on the
process was extremely limited due to the
weakness inherent in the position. The
Ambassador encouraged her to use her "bully
pulpit" to speak her mind on important issues of
Serbia's future, and offered to assist her
efforts wherever possible.


6. (c) COMMENT: Dulic-Markovic is uncertain
in her new role, acknowledging that her position
in the government is a relatively marginal one.

Nevertheless, she is a committed reformer and
idealist, and has never in the past pulled back
from speaking her mind - most famously when, as
AGMIN, she complained that Milosevic's SPS had
frittered away opportunities to focus on
economic integration by transporting Albanian
corpses instead of Serbian produce exports in
its refrigerator trucks. She recognizes her
political career may be short, and expressed
willingness to take risks for the sake of
creating improvements on the ground here. We
will continue to support her efforts, and
encourage her to give some voice to that silent
majority of Serbs who want to move forward.

POLT