MGLE01: SINIORA VIEWS SITUATION PRIOR TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000898

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2016
TAGS: EG KPAL LE PGOV PREL PTER SA
SUBJECT: MGLE01: SINIORA VIEWS SITUATION PRIOR TO
RESUMPTION OF NATIONAL DIALOGUE

REF: BEIRUT 891

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a March 21 meeting with the Ambassador and
econoff, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora denied reports that he
had asked Terje Roed-Larsen to help him, along with Saudia
Arabia and Egypt, negotiate with Syria on Lebanon's behalf.
Regarding the national dialogue, Siniora said that Egyptian
and Saudi pressure on Syria on the Shebaa Farms and on the
presidency was crucial. Siniora said that he would place the
pen in Syria's hand and accept whatever boundaries it drew
(within reason) for the Shebaa Farms. Siniora mentioned MP
Farid el-Khazen as a rumored compromise candidate for
president, but doubted its validity based on Michel Aoun's
anticipated fury. Siniora said that the national dialogue
will continue and MP Saad Hariri will attend despite threats
against him. Expressing disappointment at the walkout of two
Maronite members of the Electoral Commission, Siniora claimed
he had persuaded them to return. At the close of the
meeting, Siniora said that he would contemplate the USG
proposal to invite Defense Minister Elias Murr and Acting
Interior Minister Mohammad Fatfat to Washington to discuss
security assistance. End summary.

LARSEN RUMOR FALSE
--------------


2. (C) On March 21, the Ambassador and econoff met with
Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his advisers Roula
Noureddine and Mohammad Chattah to discuss the current
situation and deliver a demarche (reftel). The Ambassador
shared Terje Roed-Larsen's claim that Siniora had asked
Roed-Larsen to go to Riyadh with him to help negotiate with
the Syrians over Shebaa Farms, with Saudis and Egyptians
playing a supporting role. The Ambassador, noting his
personal reservations about this idea, asked Siniora if this
was accurate. An exasperated Siniora replied that this is
the third time he has been asked about this story. First the
Russian ambassador asked him and then MP Saad Hariri also
brought it to his attention. Categorically denying the
story, Siniora expressed deep annoyance with this rumor,
especially since he had not met with Roed-Larsen since
November 2005. He talked to Roed-Larsen on the phone two or
three times since, but only to discuss holding another
meeting.

EGYPT AND SAUDI ARABIA KEY
--------------


3. (C) Turning to the national dialogue scheduled to resume
March 22, the Ambassador asked Siniora if he had Egyptian and
Saudi support to pressure Syria on the Shebaa Farms issue
discussed in the previous sessions of the dialogue. Siniora
replied that he puts "everything" on Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
They are the key to pressuring Syria to cooperate on Shebaa
Farms and on the presidency. Siniora, saying that he has
kept Egypt and Saudi Arabia fully briefed throughout the
national dialogue, added that he intended to call President
Hosni Mubarak and Saudi Prince Saud. Siniora said he also
needed Egyptian and Saudi help on disarming the Palestinians.
"We are moving solidly forward...but it needs a real push,"
he explained.


4. (C) Egyptian and Saudi pressure on Syria is also crucial
to pushing President Emile Lahoud to resign, according to
Siniora. When the Ambassador asked if this would work,
Siniora answered that there is no other way. "Lahoud is
causing real harm . . . He is asking for something even
Hizballah is not asking for," said Siniora referring to
Lahoud's recent statement that Hizballah should retain its
arms until there is regional Arab-Israeli peace. Removing
Lahoud from office is a top priority, and pressure on Syria
is crucial to achieving it, according to Siniora.


5. (C) Regarding the upcoming Arab summit in Khartoum,
Siniora said that he had not yet decided whether to attend
given that President Lahoud will go. Siniora intimated that
he thought the benefits outweighed the risks of going.
"People can talk to the future of Lebanon, not its past" if
Siniora attends the summit. Siniora said that he may not
attend the opening session if he has to sit behind Lahoud.
But, if he is treated as a head of state, Siniora said he is
leaning towards going to Khartoum, in order to have a venue

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to build Arab support for Lebanese positions vis-a-vis Syria,
especially regarding the presidency and Shebaa Farms.

FARID EL-KHAZEN?!
--------------


6. (C) Siniora said that the price sought by the Syrians on
the presidency is to nominate someone that is not
antagonistic to Syria. "They are masters of blackmail," he
explained. Siniora said that the pro-Syrian names floating
around include Michel Edde and Jean Obeid. He added that
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh is no longer being
mentioned, possibly because of the arrest of former al-Medina
Bank chief Rana Koleilat (who presumably has stories to tell)
in Brazil. Siniora said that the newest compromise name
being floated is MP Farid el-Khazen. The rumor is that the
pro-Aoun el-Khazen's name was suggested to Patriarch Mar
Nasrallah Sfeir as a compromise, someone who might be able to
garner a consensus. Siniora was not sure of the validity of
the rumor given that Michel Aoun would never accept someone
from his block being a presidential competitor. "Aoun would
kill him," chuckled Siniora. (Note: Whether by coincidence
or not, Amal MP Ali Bazzi in a separate meeting with poloff
on March 21 also casually brought up the name of Farid
el-Khazen as a possible compromise Maronite candidate for
president. Bazzi, a U.S. citizen, who speaks in a
straight-forward manner, said with a laugh, "...Aoun would
probably kill him, but he wouldn't be bad at all." End
note.)

PUTTING THE PEN
IN SYRIA'S HAND
--------------


7. (C) Siniora clarified the national dialogue agreement on
demarcating Shebaa Farms. He said that all participants,
including Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah,
agreed to put their trust in Siniora to draw the borders in
negotiations with Syria. Siniora said he intended to meet
with the Syrians, put a pen in their hand, and tell them to
draw the borders of the Shebaa Farms showing what falls in
Lebanon and what parts lie in Syria. Siniora said he will
accept any borders the SARG draws. Chattah interjected that
this, of course, would be limited to borders within reason.
Chattah admitted that he had thought of scenarios in which
Syria drew Lebanon's borders to include much of northern
Israel. Siniora said he would not accept this, but was
willing to agree to any Syrian borders within reason.

NATIONAL DIALOGUE
--------------


8. (C) Turning to the national dialogue, Siniora said that
he did not think the discovery of mortar shells near MP Saad
Hariri's house would prevent him from attending. Siniora
said that the placement of the shells near Qoraytem was a
message like the ones given to Druze leader Walid Jumblatt
and MP Bahia Hariri, in earlier incidents similar to this
one. "It is a message, nothing more. This is the maximum
they can do," asserted Siniora without clarifying who "they"
were. Siniora and Chattah were encouraged by recent
statements by Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah,
including the 3/20 al-Manar interview, that were relatively
moderate and that did not contradict what had been agreed at
the national dialogue so far.

ELECTORAL COMMISSION
--------------


9. (C) Siniora expressed disappointment at the electoral
commission, particularly at the two Maronite members (Ziad
Baroud and Michel Tabet) who walked out. "They are not
behaving in a serious way," he added. "First they leaked
their resignations, then announced their resignations, and
then, on the third day, I received their resignations."
Siniora said he visited Baroud and Tabet and calmed them down
by listening to them for an hour. He believed that they
would return to the commission shortly. Siniora said that he
did not believe it was Baroud's right to walk out over what
appeared to be minor disagreements. Siniora appeared to
regret Baroud's participation in the commission, sighing that
some people impress you with credentials but then don't
behave well once in place.


10. (C) In closing, the Ambassador asked Siniora for his
opinion on a possible USG invitation to Defense Minister
Ilias Murr and acting Interior Minister Mohammad Fatfat to

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come to Washington discuss security assistance. Siniora (who
had earlier opposed inviting Murr alone) said that it was an
interesting idea, and that he would think about it.

PALESTINIAN REFUGEES
--------------


11. (C) Walking out, Siniora, unprompted, added a positive
note, saying that cabinet ministers would soon visit the
Palestinian refugee camps and discuss improving health and
education. The Ambassador welcomed this step, pointing out
the UNRWA traditionally considered Lebanon to be the worst
host country for Palestinian refugees. Siniora replied that,
under the Syrian occupation, the GOL was never allowed to
give any assistance to Palestinian refugees in order to keep
the tension going. He said that the ministers' visit to the
camps will be the first in about 40 years.
FELTMAN