MGLE01: BEHIND NASRALLAH'S MASS RALLY -- MESSAGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000562

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2016
TAGS: IZ KISL LE PGOV PTER
SUBJECT: MGLE01: BEHIND NASRALLAH'S MASS RALLY -- MESSAGES
TO THE LEBANESE AND THE U.S.

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: 1.4(d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) On February 23, Hizballah held a joint rally with
Amal in southern Beirut in response to the bombing of the
Golden Shrine in Iraq. Hizballah Secretary General Hassan
Nasrallah gave a speech appealing for calm and asking Muslims
not to reproach each other. Nasrallah instead unleashed
criticism against the USG and dared the U.S. to try to disarm
Hizballah. Long-time Hizballah watchers told econoff they
regarded the speech as moderate and conciliatory in light of
Sunni-Shia tensions in both Iraq and Lebanon. Sunni-Shia
confrontations at a soccer game on February 19 underscored
the need for Shia and Sunni leaders to calm down their
respective communities. The Hizballah watchers said that the
hidden message of the rally was in the turnout. Hizballah
demonstrated that it could mobilize tens of thousands of
supporters in a matter of three hours. End summary.

NASRALLAH APPEALS FOR CALM
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2. (U) On February 23, Hizballah staged a joint rally with
the Amal movement in southern Beirut to protest the bombing
of the Golden Shrine in Samarra, Iraq. On February 24,
econoff polled several long-time Hizballah watchers for their
reaction to Nasrallah's speech. Sunni journalist Mohammad
Salam, based in Sidon, said the speech was part of an effort
by Sunni and Shia leaders to tamp down Sunni-Shia tensions.
His sources in Dar al-Fatwa and the Higher Shia Council said
that they are working on ways to reduce tensions, especially
in light of Sunni-Shia violence at a soccer game on February

19. At a soccer match between Lebanon and Kuwait in Beirut,
Sunni fans began chanting pro-Hariri slogans while Shia fans
chanted pro-Nasrallah slogans. According to Salam, Shia
fans, after the game, smashed windows and vandalized cars in
the area, knowing that it was a mostly Sunni neighborhood.
Salam commented that Nasrallah's speech was very moderate and
was designed to absorb Shia anger in positive way.


5. (C) Shia journalist Abbas Sabbagh viewed the rally as an
opportunity for Hizballah to vent anger at Secretary Rice's
visit, and annoyance with Lebanese Forces leader Samir Ja'Ja'
and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. The turnout of the rally
was the main message. According to Sabbagh, Hizballah wanted
to show that it could mobilize a large crowd in only a few
hours, with the implication that it could gather a much
larger crowd if given more time. It was a demonstration of
mobilization capabilities. Sabbagh noted that among the
women in the audience, a higher proportiong than usual were
unveiled. He had expected women wearing the hijab to attend
a Hizballah rally, but the presence of so many without it
suggests that Hizballah rallied secular segments of the Shia
community that would not normally participate.


6. (C) Dr. Ahmad Moussalli, an Islamic movements expert at
AUB, viewed the rally as focusing Muslim anger at the U.S.
rather than between Sunni and Shia. Moussalli said that
Sunni-Shia tensions have been building for some time for two
reasons: Iraq and UNSCR 1559. The Sunni-Shia violence in
Iraq shapes people's perceptions in Lebanon. The issues of
implementation of UNSCR 1559 and removal of President Emile
Lahoud are beginning to appear as Sunni on one side (March 14
Coalition) and the Shia on the other side. Moussalli noted
that Hizballah was able to draw a very large crowd on only
three hours notice. He saw this as a message that Hizballah
is prepared to challenge UNSCR 1559 with its own
demonstrations.
FELTMAN