MGLE01: AMAL POLITICAL MOVEMENT ANNOUNCES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000546

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/WERNER/DORAN/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PINS LE SY
SUBJECT: MGLE01: AMAL POLITICAL MOVEMENT ANNOUNCES
DIALOGUE FOR MARCH 2-9 IN BEIRUT

Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador. Reasons Section 1.4 (b).


1. (C) Summary and introduction: On February 17, Speaker
of Parliament Nabih Berri renewed his call for a dialogue
among members of the Parliament's leadership. Berri emerged
from addressing his Hizballah-allied parliamentary partners
to call for a gathering of political leaders on March 2-9 to
take place at the parliament building. Berri's political
spokesman Ali Hamdan is convinced that all political blocs
will be represented at the meetings. However, immediately
after Berri made his call for dialogue, Walid Jumblatt
announced he would not take part in the dialogue with
Hizballah, and Samir Ja'ja' said that his ministers would not
participate in cabinet meetings that took place at the
presidential Baabda palace. In the past few days, however,
an increasing number of political leaders have decided to
attend, and Ja'ja and Jumblatt are reconsidering. End
summary and introduction.


2. (C) Ali Hamdan arrived at a February 18 meeting with
poloff late, and wearing a worried expression. He
immediately said the level of political rhetoric in Lebanon
was "a nightmare." Hamdan offered that the language being
used by "some people -- meaning Walid Jumblatt -- would not
lead to normal relations with Syria, not to mention the
exceptional relations foreseen in the 1989 Taif accords. He
explained that Nabih Berri is worried about the future of the
country, and so insisted that now more than ever, the party
leaders had to come together to discuss their differences.
Hamdan was even more worried by statements from Lebanese
Forces leader Samir Ja'ja'. Paraphrasing the Christian
leader's comments, he said that labeling Syria as an enemy at
Lebanon's back was likely to incite unrest.


3. (C) When asked if all the parliamentary leaders would
attend the formal meetings, Hamdan said, "no one has refused
so far." He said Berri has assurances from Saad Hariri that
he would attend as head of his bloc. PM Siniora would be
invited as Prime Minister. Likewise, Aoun would attend the
meeting. Without mentioning names, Hamdan said that most
bloc leaders had already contacted the Speaker expressing
their willingness to convene. However, Hamdan added that all
these agreements were made before February 14, and before the
announcement of the March 14 deadline for Lahoud's departure
from office. Hamdan said he was confident that political
leaders would keep their commitment to Berri to attend the
meeting; he quickly added that responses to formal
invitations would be coming in during the weekend of February
18-19.


4. (C) Hamdan said Berri plans to begin the dialogue with
common, broadly accepted themes: the investigation into
Hariri's murder, UNSCR 1559, and normalizing relations with
Syria. But Hamdan was uncertain how Berri would deal with
the issue of UNSCR 1559 and its importance for Hizballah,
Amal's chief partner. He also did not know how the dialogue
would approach the issue of the removal of President Lahoud,
named by the March 14 Coalition as the chief objective of
their movement. He avoided any suggestion that the dialogue
might seek a means to legally and peacefully remove President
Lahoud from office. Hamdan did, however, hope that the
meetings might head off a proposed march on Baabda by March
14 supporters. He said that the specter of the February 5
demonstrations that ended in violence and destruction of
property were still fresh in the minds of people. He added
that taking a million people to Baabda would be much more
difficult to control and could have tragic results.

COMMENT
--------------


5. (C) Berri's call for dialogue is not new. But now it
represents a chance to avoid a potentially violent campaign
of civil disobedience to depose president Lahoud. The success
of Berri's initiative depends on the good will of the
Lebanese political leadership. Saad Hariri must appear if
the meeting is to be credible. Aoun must be willing to
discuss the operations of government without making his
presidential candidacy an obstacle to progress on other
issues. Most importantly, Hizballah, which should also be
present at the meeting, will have to address the issue of
UNSCR 1559 in a way that does not alienate the other parties.
The meeting will be a chance to see to what degree Aoun is
willing to make common cause with Hizballah after their
much-publicized communique. Meanwhile, Walid Jumblatt seems
to be holding to his position that is pointless to have a
national dialogue that does not address the issue of the

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Presidency. End comment.
FELTMAN