LEBANON: GEMAYEL ANNOUNCES HIS PLANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 003891

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING, STATE FOR NEA/ELA,
NEA/FO: ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEMAYEL ANNOUNCES HIS PLANS

Classified By: DCM Christopher W. Murray. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) an
d (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) On 18 December Codel Dodd met with former
Lebanese President Amin Gemayel to discuss the current
situation in Lebanon. Gemayel told the Codel that Lebanon
needs the support of the United States, and that Syria must
be pressured to stop supporting instability in Lebanon. In
Gemayel,s view, Iran is not a major player in the
instability in Lebanon, and is in fact reaching out to
promote business ties with Lebanon. He also observed that
Israel could help stabilize the country by taking away
Hizballah,s &raison d,etre.8 Finally, Gemayel revealed
his plans to run for Parliament in the by-election to fill
the seat vacated by the death of his son Pierre. End summary.

CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION
--------------


2. (U) On December 18 Senators Christopher Dodd and John
Kerry met with former Lebanese President Amin Gemayel at
Gemayel,s residence in Beirut. Gemayel told the Codel that
Lebanon,s violence and assassinations, including that of his
son Pierre, were &along the same line8 as the violence
inflicted upon the U.S. on September 11, 2001. All were
committed by the &same forms of evil.8 He believed that
the U.S. and Lebanon share similar values of freedom and
democracy, and told the Codel that Lebanon needs the support
of the U.S. in this time of crisis. He was grateful to have
received condolences from friends in the U.S. He said he
greatly appreciated Congressional support for continued
commitment to Lebanon, and said he was reassured that this
support appeared to be bipartisan. Kerry affirmed Gemayel,s
impressions.


3. (C) Senator Kerry asked for an assessment of the
proposed Special Tribunal to prosecute those suspected of the
Hariri assassination. He also asked about reconciliation
among Lebanon,s political factions. Gemayel replied that
for reconciliation to occur, pressure had to be applied to
Syria and Iran. Those countries were preventing
reconciliation. Progress had been impeded by Syria,s desire
to block the Tribunal. Syria,s strategy on the Tribunal
includes using the political opposition in Lebanon to prevent
the Tribunal documents from being ratified by the Parliament,
as well as mobilizing opposition to the Tribunal in the UN
Security Council. This kind of obstruction is not
unprecedented, Gemayel said, since he had seen it when as
President of Lebanon he had tried to obtain a ceasefire
during the civil war in Lebanon. Syria then had blocked
attempts to achieve the ceasefire.


4. (C) Domestic reconciliation and inauguration of the
Tribunal are being hampered by Lebanese politicians loyal to
Syria, such as President Emile Lahoud. Gemayel told the
Codel that Lahoud had been imposed on Lebanon by Syria, and
that other politicians, such as Nabih Berri, while a &good
guy,8 were being &held hostage8 by Syria,s influence. He
stated that Syria still controls one-third of the Lebanese
parliament, and can thus block major legislation that Syria
itself does not approve.


5. (U) Gemayel pointed out that his family has suffered
a great deal personally due to the violence in Lebanon. He
told the Codel that five members of his family, including his
son Pierre and a 2-year old niece of his own, have been
victims of assassination. As Gemayel,s wife observed, &We
have paid a high price for sharing what you believe in.8

MOVING FORWARD
--------------


6. (C) Gemayel, when asked how things could move
forward, replied that Israel could play a key role in helping
resolve the internal crisis in Lebanon. In his opinion,
Israel could do much to weaken Hizballah by removing its very
reason for existing. One of Hizballah,s &raisons d,etre8
is the liberation of Lebanese lands in the hands of Israel.
Were Israel to place Sheba'a Farms under UN control, this
would help the situation. Israel could also contribute by
working to resolve the issues of prisoners, and ceasing its
military overflights of Lebanese territory.


BEIRUT 00003891 002 OF 003


SYRIA
--------------


7. (C) When asked about Syria, Gemayel observed that
Syria and Iran have strong ties between them, both cultural
and economic. Syria does not want to &go alone.8 Syria
must feel real pressure and determination from the West, or
it will not act. When Senator Dodd observed that the U.S. is
unlikely to use force to apply such pressure, Gemayel stated
that he believed that economic and diplomatic pressure on
Syria was the best way forward.


8. (C) Gemayel thought that Syria is isolated. Even
Saudi Arabia, which had strong ties to Damascus at one time,
is not as close to the regime of Bashar Al-Asad as it had
been to that of his father. Because of its isolation, Syria
is not feeling strong. Asad is desperate for reconciliation
with other nations in the region because many nations in the
Middle East feel that he is encouraging the Shia, though he
is himself Alawite. Syria is using Hizballah as a "tool in
the hand of Asad,8 and has supported Hizballah since the mid
1980s. Hizballah is indebted to Syria due to the large
amount of logistical support that Syria has provided over the
years. Syria has been able to manipulate Hizballah by
infiltrating it, and Hizballah has felt compelled to serve
Syrian interests. Gemayel revealed that he had met with
various members of the Hizballah leadership to try to
convince them that it was in their interest to preserve
Lebanon as a democracy. He admitted that these efforts were
without apparent success. Syria has adopted a policy of
creating chaos and instability in Lebanon, and has acted to
block the creation of effective institutions within Lebanon.
This is the outcome of 30 years of Syrian dominance.


9. (C) Senator Kerry asked Gemayel if there was a way to
counter Syria,s support of the insurgents in Iraq by working
with the Sunni population in Syria. Gemayel replied that
when Hafez Al-Asad was been in power, Asad senior had
installed a tough security structure throughout the country.
With that in mind, the Sunni population in Syria could be
counted upon to remain passive. The impending Special
Tribunal, however, could shake the foundations and legitimacy
of the regime in Damascus.

IRAN
--------------


10. (C) Gemayel, in contrast to his views on Syria, was
more positive about Iran. Iran,s interests, he said, were
the &opposite8 of those of Syria in Lebanon. Gemayel
believed that with Syria,s help, Iran was able to gain
access to the parliament by having pro-Iranian candidates
elected to it. This was an important achievement. If the
chaos in Lebanon continues, Iran could lose what it has
gained in Lebanon. Thus it is not in Iran,s interest to see
the chaos continue. As evidence of Iran,s worries about the
crisis in Lebanon, Gemayel revealed that since the time the
crisis had begun, the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon had
visited him twice. He noted that the Iranian embassy was
actively trying to promote business relationships with
Lebanon. But despite the Iranian interest in closer ties
with Lebanon, Iran will not support the Special Tribunal if
the Tribunal were seen to put the Syrian regime in danger.

SAUDI ARABIA
--------------


11. (C) Gemayel did not think the Saudi regime would have
much of a role to play vis--vis Syria because of its own
domestic problems. The Saudis had close ties to Syria at one
time, but that relationship had deteriorated under President
Bashar al-Asad,s rule.

LEBANESE )U.S. RELATIONS
--------------


12. (C) Dodd suggested that one of the problems he saw
in the region was a lack of U.S. attention during the past
six years. He added that dealing with this region takes &a
lot of work,8 and that the U.S. had &fallen off the bike8
in dealing with the Middle East. Gemayel replied that it was
important now that the U.S. not give the impression that it
was shifting policy or showing weakness in dealing with
Syria. The U.S. must show that it is determined to go all
the way, with no compromise in achieving its goals in the
region.

BEIRUT 00003891 003 OF 003



PERSONAL FUTURE
--------------


13. (C) Gemayel told the Codel that he had been happy to
step back from politics and &pass the torch8 to his son
Pierre. However, Pierre, in his death, had passed the torch
back to the father. Therefore, Gemayel felt that he had no
choice but to run for the Parliamentary seat that his son had
occupied. He would thus stand for Parliament in the next
by-election. He told the Codel that he was &fully engaged8
with Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt, Fouad Sinoria, and other
leaders of the March 14 movement. He showed the Codel
evidence of his Kata,eb political party,s growth by holding
out a newspaper story, with photographs, that described a
ceremony in which 4,000 new members had joined his party.


14. (U) This cable has not been cleared by Codel Dodd.
FELTMAN