WITH GOL APPROVAL OF TRIBUNAL, ARE MARCH 14 AND

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 003784

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2026
TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV KDEM LE SY
SUBJECT: WITH GOL APPROVAL OF TRIBUNAL, ARE MARCH 14 AND
MARCH 8-AOUN HEADED FOR SHOWDOWN?


Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S) We have heard from March 14 figures that Fouad
Siniora plans to use the emotionally charged date of December
12 -- the one-year anniversary of the assassination of MP and
al-Nahar publisher Gibran Tueni -- to convene the cabinet to
approve the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. If current plans
are followed (a far from certain proposition, given unstable
conditions),the cabinet meeting would be held either
immediately before or after a memorial mass for Tueni, as the
gathered March 14 masses would serve as a human shield to
allow cabinet ministers to meet. The danger is that the
cabinet meeting hall and the Greek Orthodox church used by
the Tueni family are adjacent to the March 8-Aoun ongoing
demonstrations and sit-ins, making for an irresistible target
for trouble-makers. Clashes between the two sides appear
inevitable, given the proximity. While less likely given
greater physical distance between the two events, a dress
rehearsal for the clashes could occur as early as Sunday,
when an all-day seminar on press freedom sponsored by
al-Nahar in Tueni's memory will take place simultaneously
with another large March 8-Aoun demonstration. Adding to the
tension is the requirement that Siniora announce the Tuesday
cabinet session 48 hours in advance -- i.e., on Sunday, when
March 8-Aoun ready-to-deploy demonstrators will presumably be
in place in large numbers near the Grand Serail headquarters
of the Prime Minister. We expect that the actual decision as
to whether to announce the cabinet meeting will not be made
until the last minute, given changing circumstances. End
summary.

HOW TO PASS THE TRIBUNAL, WHEN
THE CABINET IS PHYSICALLY OBSTRUCTED
--------------


2. (S) In separate meetings with the Ambassador on December
6, Marwan Hamadeh, Mohamed Chatah, and Ghattas Khoury
revealed that Prime Minister Siniora plans -- at least at
this point -- to convene the cabinet for an official meeting
on Tuesday, December 12, to approve the Special Tribunal for
Lebanon and authorize GOL signatures on the documents. While
the 15-day constitutional waiting period to allow Emile
Lahoud to act expired some time ago (as the cabinet passed
the tribunal on its first reading on November 11, the meeting
that provoked the Shia walk-out),Siniora and his advisors
were worried how to gather the cabinet in its (temporary)
official meeting place in downtown Beirut: they feared that
the March 8-Aoun demonstrators, with their ongoing sit-in
only a couple of blocks from the cabinet venue, would either
prevent the cabinet from meeting, storm the building once the
ministers gathered, or trap the cabinet in an uncomfortable
and cramped building indefinitely, to force Siniora's
resignation. (Given Lebanon's annoyingly absurd complicated
confessional sensitivities, Lebanon's cabinet cannot meet
officially at the Grand Serail headquarters of the PM,
considered a "Sunni" institution. Nor can it meet officially
at the Baabda Presidential Palace, a "Christian" location.
With the official cabinet hall near the Museum deemed a
security risk, the Siniora cabinet for a period rotated
meetings between the Serail and Baabda, which all accepted as
providing the needed confessional balance. Later, the
cabinet acquired for its official meetings temporary space in
what passes for a confessionally-neutral building downtown.)

ENLISTING HELP FROM A "MARTYR"
TO PASS THE TRIBUNAL
--------------


3. (S) So March 14 leaders, "eager to pass the tribunal
before another one of us gets killed" (quoting Hamadeh),
decided to overcome the problem of physical movement by
scheduling the cabinet meeting to coincide with a very
sensitive date -- the first anniversary of the murder of MP
and newspaper publisher Gibran Tueni. A large number of
March 14 supporters will gather for a commemorative mass for
Tueni at 5 p.m. on December 12 at St. George's Orthodox
Cathedral in Parliament Square, downtown Beirut. St.
George's (not to be confused with St. George's Maronite
Cathedral nearby, the site of Pierre Gemayel's funeral) is
only two blocks from Foch Street, where the "Foch Street
gang" (as Michel Aoun now calls the cabinet he refuses to
recognize, a less elegant name in our view the "Feltman
government" description preferred by Hizballah) holds its

BEIRUT 00003784 002 OF 003


cabinet sessions. March 14 leaders propose to hold the
cabinet meeting either immediately before or immediately
after the Tueni memorial mass, so that the March 14
supporters will serve as human shields to protect the
ministers and allow them to arrive and depart in safety.

MARCH 8-AOUN DEMONSTRATIONS
ONLY STEPS AWAY FROM TUENI MASS
--------------


4. (S) The problem is that Parliament Square and St.
George's, while two blocks from the Foch Street cabinet hall,
are only one block from Riad Solh Square, the site of the
ongoing March 8-Aoun demonstrations. While no one knows what
the size of the March 8-Aoun crowds will be on December 12,
there is a very real danger that the two groups will come
into contact and clash in central Beirut. The target is
almost too tempting for trouble-makers from either side, as
minor clashes could quickly spin out of control. Khoury
acknowledged that this could be the event that ignites the
long-feared physical attack on the Beirut Central District's
glittering Solidere development (that has already been
devastated commercially by the March 8-Aoun protests). While
hoping that the centerpiece of Rafiq Hariri's Beirut
reconstruction project survives physically unscathed, Khoury
asked, "what choice do we have? We are not going to drop the
tribunal. How else is the cabinet going to meet?"

ANNOUNCEMENT ON SUNDAY
COULD PROVOKE TROUBLE
--------------


5. (S) Under Lebanon's constitutional rules, the Prime
Minister has to announce cabinet meetings and the agenda in
advance, traditionally 48 hours. Thus Siniora is required to
announce the cabinet meeting on Sunday. This in itself could
provoke initial troubles, as those determined to derail the
tribunal might be provoked into action. "These will be the
most dangerous two days for all of us," Hamadeh noted; "none
of us should move." Chatah acknowledged that Siniora is very
much aware that March 8-Aoun forces, who have declared his
cabinet illegal, will try to use the mere announcement of the
cabinet meeting to incite anger against Siniora.


6. (S) As chance would have it in this overheated and
worrying atmosphere, Hizballah and Aoun forces have already
announced plans for a massive rally on Sunday in downtown
Beirut, meaning that a ready-to-deploy mob will be instantly
available to make trouble, should March 8-Aoun leaders call
for it. Siniora's announcement of a cabinet meeting on the
tribunal will undoubtedly be seen as a provocation. In fact,
there could be a dress rehearsal of sorts for clashing
opposing demonstrations on Sunday. Beginning Sunday morning,
al-Nahar newspaper will sponsor an all-day press freedom
seminar at the BIEL exhibition area adjacent to downtown.
The March 8-Aoun rally is scheduled for 3 p.m. This means
that, by mid-afternoon on Sunday, one could have pro- and
anti-government forces both out downtown (albeit at some
physical distance -- unlike the cheek-and-jowl proximity
expected for Tuesday, the two groups would have to make a
conscious decision to brush up against one another on
Sunday). The Ambassador and PAO -- who will unlikely be able
to attend the official memorial mass from Tueni for reasons
noted above -- are scheduled, security conditions permitting,
to represent the USG at the Tueni press freedom seminar
opening session. The opening session will conclude hours
before the March 8-Aoun demonstrators are expected to gather.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (S) We emphasize that it is too early to predict whether
or not Siniora will, in the end, follow current plans to call
for a cabinet meeting for Tuesday or, even if he does,
actually be able to pull it off two long and dangerous days
later. With March 8-Aoun trying to keep March 14 and the GOL
off balance, much could happen between now and Sunday that
might change Siniora's cost-benefit analysis. We will report
any updates. Moreover, while Siniora seems determined to
move ahead on the tribunal now, one wonders whether he can
really muster 16 ministers (out of the 17 remaining) to
venture into the Beirut Central District for an official
cabinet meeting that will be seen as a provocation by people
camped out only steps away and determined to topple the
cabinet. Failing to muster a cabinet quorum would be an
enormous blow to Siniora's legitimacy. Between now and

BEIRUT 00003784 003 OF 003


Sunday, we expect an intense period of message deliveries
(SMS, e-mail, fax, messenger boys) between March 14 leaders
who are so fearful for their lives that they have trouble
getting together physically to make plans. If Siniora does
manage despite the odds to pull off the cabinet meeting and
approve the tribunal, Chatah told us that he will immediately
submit the documents to the parliament for ratification.

FELTMAN