SINIORA, MINISTERS TEMPORARILY CUT OFF BY CROWDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 003746

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KDEM LE SY
SUBJECT: SINIORA, MINISTERS TEMPORARILY CUT OFF BY CROWDS

CLASSIFIED BY: JEFFREY FELTMAN, AMBASSADOR, PER 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (SBU) AT 1900 LOCAL TIME, ALL BUT ONE OF THE ROADS
LEADING TO THE GRAND SERAIL -- WHERE PRIME MINISTER SINIORA
AND NINE OF HIS CABINET MINISTERS WERE TEMPORARILY BESIEGED
BY THE MARCH 8-AOUN CROWDS -- WERE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT.
THIS FOLLOWS A VERY TENSE ONE-HOUR PERIOD WHEN, DESPITE
PROMISES TO THE CONTRARY, THE LEBANESE ARMED FORCES (LAF)
FAILED TO PREVENT THE PRO-SYRIAN CROWDS FROM PITCHING TENTS
AND BLOCKING ALL/ALL ACCESS TO THE GRAND SERAIL, WITH CROWDS
MOVING UP TO THE PERIMETER SECURITY FENCE OF THE PRIME
MINISTER'S COMPLEX. AS WORD BEGAN TO SPREAD IN BEIRUT OF THE
TIGHTENING CROWD AROUND THE GRAND SERAIL, SMALL SKIRMISHES
BEGAN TO BREAK OUT IN MIXED DRUSE-SHIA AND SHIA-SUNNI
NEIGHBORHOODS.


2. (C) THE AMBASSADOR SPOKE IN SUCCESSION TO MINISTERS
MARWAN HAMADEH AND NAYLA MOUAWAD (BOTH INSIDE THE SERAIL WITH
THE PM),SINIORA, WALID JUMBLATT, AND SAAD HARIRI. FOR A
WHILE, THE MARCH 14 LEADERS FEARED THE WORST -- THAT THE
CROWD WOULD EITHER CHOKE OFF THE GRAND SERAIL UNTIL SINIORA
GAVE UP OR THAT THE CROWD WOULD DRAG SINIORA AND HIS
MINISTERS OUT BY FORCE. DEPUTY PRIME MINISTERI AND DEFENSE
MINISTER ELIAS MURR TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT ARMY UNITS HAD
BEEN SEPARATED AND TEMPORARILY ISOLATED BY THE SIZE OF THE
CROWD. BUT, MURR VOWED, HE HAD ORDERED THE LAF TO USE FORCE
TO REOPEN SOME ACCESS TO THE GRAND SERAIL.


3. (C) THE AMBASSADOR JOINED A NUMBER OF LEBANESE
POLITICIANS AND DIPLOMATS IN CONTACTING PARLIAMENT SPEAKER
NABIH BERRI TO URGE HIM TO EXERCISE LEADERSHIP IN MOVING THE
CROWDS. JUMBLATT AND HARIRI NOTED THAT THEY HAD TOLD BERRI
THAT THE SUNNI AND DRUSE WOULD HOLD HIM RESPONSIBLE, SHOULD
SOMETHING HAPPEN TO THE CABINET MINISTERS IN THE SERAIL OR
SHOULD WIDESPREAD SECTARIAN VIOLENCE BREAK OUT BECAUSE OF A
PROLONGED SIEGE. BERRI (WHO SOUNDED DEJECTED WHEN TALKING
WITH THE AMBASSADOR) TOLD HIS CALLERS TO GIVE HIM "FIFTEEN
MINUTES." THIS TIME, BERRI DELIVERED; MURR'S THREAT TO USE
FORCE TO OPEN THE ROADS WAS NOT NEEDED, AS THE CROWDS PULLED
BACK VOLUNTARILY. GEIR PEDERSEN TOLD US THAT HE ALSO TALKED
TO HIS "USUAL HIZBALLAH CONTACTS" TO URGE A PULLBACK FROM THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE GRAND SERAIL. MURR TOLD US THAT HE
WOULD STATION ADDITIONAL LAF UNITS IN THE VICINITY. HE NOTED
THAT ONLY THE ROAD BETWEEN THE GRAND SERAIL AND RIADH SOLH
SQUARE (WHERE THE MASS DEMONSTRATION WAS HELD TODAY) WILL
REMAIN CLOSED AND AVAILABLE TO THE DEMONSTRATORS, WHO HAVE
UNFURLED BEDROLLS AND SET UP TENTS.


4. (C) AFTER THE ROADS BEGAN TO CLEAR, JUMBLATT TOLD THE
AMBASSADOR THAT, HAD THE SIEGE CONTINUED, SINIORA WOULD HAVE
ADDRESSED LEBANON FROM INSIDE THE GRAND SERAIL, FLANKED BY
HIS NINE MINISTERS. ACCORDING TO JUMBLATT, SINIORA WOULD
HAVE TRIED TO CALM THE LEBANESE IN HOPES OF PREVENTING DRUSE
AND SUNNI ATTACKS AGAINST SHIA ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY.
SINIORA'S PREPARED SPEECH, JUMBLATT SAID, WOULD HAVE
EMPHASIZED THAT ALL OF THOSE SURROUNDING THE GRAND SERAIL
WERE ALSO LEBANESE AND THAT THE LEBANESE SHOULD NOT FALL INTO
THE SYRIAN TRAP OF CIVIL WAR. HARIRI WAS MORE BELLICOSE,
ASKING THE AMBASSADOR ACIDLY WHETHER THE UNITED STATES HAD
YET COME UP WITH ANY CONTINGENCY PLANS. HAMADEH MUSED ABOUT
WHETHER A PROLONGED SIEGE OF THE SERAIL COULD BE A "CAUSUS
BELLI" TO PROVOKE THE SECURITY COUNCIL INTO ACTION.


5. (U) THOSE INSIDE THE GRAND SERAIL INCLUDE SINIORA AND
THE FOLLOWING CABINET MINISTERS: NAYLA MOUAWAD, MARWAN
HAMADEH, JIHAD AZOUR, SAMI HADDAD, GHAZI ARIDI, JEAN
HOGASAPIAN, KHALID QABBANI, AHMAD FATFAT, TARIQ MITRI.
SINIORA'S ADVISORS MOHAMED CHATAH AND ROLA MOUREDDINE ARE
ALSO THERE.


5. (C) COMMENT: THIS EVENING'S SIEGE OF THE GRAND SERAIL
WAS, THANKFULLY, SHORT-LIVED AND REMAINED PEACEFUL. WHILE
THE LEBANESE SECURITY SERVICES ARE DOWNPLAYING THE INCIDENT,
THOSE INSIDE THE GRAND SERAIL -- AND THEIR MARCH 14
SUPPORTERS ELSEWHERE -- ARE CONVINCED THAT THIS WAS NOT AN
ACCIDENTAL STRANGULATION BUT RATHER A CALCULATED EFFORT,
DESIGNED TO INCREASE PRESSURE ON SINIORA AND HIS CABINET
WHILE INCREASING CONFESSIONAL TENSIONS THROUGHOUT LEBANON.
IF THAT WAS THE PLAN, IT WORKED. WE SUSPECT THAT THE
DECISION TO PITCH TENTS TO BLOCK ALL ACCESS ROADS AND TO
OVERWHELM THE ARMY BY NUMBERS WAS IN FACT A DRESS REHEARSAL
OF WHAT MIGHT COME LATER, IF THE SINIORA CABINET DOES NOT
COLLAPSE AS EASILY AS AOUN AND HIZBALLAH DESIRE. WE HOPE
THAT LEBANONS INTERNATIONAL FRIENDS WHO TALK TO SYRIA AND
IRAN ARE PASSING CREDIBLE MESSAGES TONIGHT THAT THEY WILL BE
HELD RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY VIOLENCE AGAINST SINIORA'S CABINET
AND ANY INTENTIONAL PROVOCATION DESIGNED TO SPARK

CONFESSIONAL VIOLENCE. END COMMENT.
FELTMAN