LEBANON: AOUN ADVISOR WARNS "THEY'RE OUT OF TIME"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003718

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2016
TAGS: IS LE PGOV PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN ADVISOR WARNS "THEY'RE OUT OF TIME"


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (b).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C/NF) Gibran Bassil, senior advisor to Free Patriotic
Movement leader Michel Aoun, recited a litany of grievances
against the Siniora government and warned that negotiations
and compromise were no longer possible between the
Hizballah/FPM alliance and March 14 forces. He indicated
that joint Hizballah/FPM street demonstrations were imminent
and predicted they would not end until the Siniora government
had fallen. Bassil's constant references to the "threat"
posed by Samir Ja'ja's Lebanese Forces may presage an attempt
to blame LF for any violence that may occur. When asked
whether FPM really wants to go down this dangerous path and
likely incur responsibility, Bassil petulantly argued that
any violence would be the sole responsibility of Saad Hariri
and Siniora for their "greedy" refusal to share power.
Bassil said that the four ministries offered by Siniora and
March 14 were not enough. End summary.


2. (C/NF) Bassil met with emboff on November 28 at his
residence in Rabieh. The influential senior advisor (and
son-in-law) to Michel Aoun was agitated and stated early on
in the conversation that he was at high personal risk and was
no longer living in Rabieh. He pointedly inquired whether
the Embassy was aware that up to 40 armed members of the
Lebanese Forces had been arrested the previous evening for
engaging in unauthorized military training. Without
explaining his reasoning, he predicted the Lebanese Forces
would soon be involved in violent activity.

HARIRI EXCORIATED
--------------


3. (C/NF) Bassil, who has long argued the benefits of the
Hizballah-FPM political alliance as a justifiable
counter-weight to the March 14 coalition, insisted that the
time for possible compromise was now over and indicated that
an all-out push would soon commence to bring down the Siniora
government. Bassil expounded a long list of grievances,
mainly featuring Saad Hariri, whom he described as an inept,
duplicitous opportunist who cared little for Lebanon.
Although the most heated language was reserved for Hariri
("...all he's ever wanted was the tribunal, as if he's the
only one who has ever suffered in Lebanon..."),Bassil also
levied heavy criticism on Siniora for his purported refusal
to listen to anyone except his tight circle of "Sunni
advisors." He also issued a dismissive rebuke of Hariri's
political skill by confiding that Hassan Nasrallah had said
that Hariri had "begged" Nasrallah for a meeting immediately
following the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, strongly
implying that he was not a worthy adversary.


4. (C/NF) Throughout the discussion, Bassil gave the
impression that FPM and Hizballah have closely coordinated
their planning and would be following a joint script once the
demonstrations commenced. He tried to portray the cohorts of
Hizballah as Lebanese patriots, who would only engage in
disciplined, peaceful protest. When Bassil was asked what
would happen if the authorities simply permitted peaceful
demonstrations and the government continued to operate as it
has been, Bassil expressed disdain for the implied naivete of
the question and stated that, with the Lebanese Forces in the
equation, a peaceful resolution of the crisis was not a
possibility.


5. (C/NF) For the better part of an hour, Bassil recounted
episode upon episode, many from years past, that supposedly
proved the deceit of the country's Sunni "ruling class" and
their unjustified dominance of Lebanon's political and
economic structures. He stated that Michel Aoun, upon his
return to Lebanon last year, had tried to "share his rightful
claim" to power, but had been repeatedly rebuffed by the
troika of Hariri, Ja'ja' and Jumblatt. He even made the
rather astonishing claim that the alleged decision by the
family of slain Pierre Gemayel not to receive him as a
mourner was politically inspired and further proof of their
"hatred" toward the former general.


6. (C/NF) Bassil made it clear that Michel Aoun now
believes the time has come to settle old scores with the
Hariri family, Samir Ja'ja' and Walid Jumblatt. Throughout
the discussion, the mixture of bravado and arrogance made

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Bassil incapable of answering even the most basic question of
why would Aoun join forces with an organization so clearly
under the control of Syria and Iran. And when pressed to
explain why Aoun would set in motion a process that could
harm so many people and jeopardize the sovereignty of his
country, Bassil simply retorted, "Ask Saad -- that is where
the responsibility lies." When asked why Aoun had rebuffed
Siniora's offer to give Aoun four ministries (including one
of the most powerful and prestigious slots),Bassil answered,
revealingly, that "we" have 44 percent of the parliament and
thus must have 44 percent of the cabinet -- "we" in this case
being Aoun, Hizballah, and Amal combined.

COMMENT
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7. (C/NF) If Bassil is any indication -- and although he is
a blustery character, he has proven to be very influential in
the Aounist movement -- we will soon face a coordinated
effort by FPM and Hizballah to topple the Siniora government
and punish the many perceived demons who inhabit the Aounist
psyche. But probably more disconcerting than the almost
juvenile expression of political grudges was the insouciance
with which Bassil reflected on possible violence. And unless
he was purposefully misleading for some unfathomable reason,
FPM already has the villain of the piece -- and he is Samir
Ja'ja'. While we agree that we need to watch the Lebanese
Forces carefully for signs of renewed militia activity, we
are more bothered that Bassil's hatred of March 14 has led
him to see the FPM and Hizballah as comrades in arms in a
joint struggle.


8. (C/NF) Whatever Bassil's comments, Aoun himself always
rejects the label that he is an "ally" of Hizballah. But his
rejection of Siniora's offer for four ministries in a
30-member cabinet indicates how much Aoun has bought into the
Hizballah enterprise: Aoun does not ask for additional
ministries for himself but parrots Hizballah's insistence on
the formula of one-third-plus-one of the total cabinet that
would give him, Hizballah and Amal together the ability to
block everything the cabinet does and to threaten the cabinet
with constitutional collapse at any moment. If Aoun wanted
to prove that he can be a constructive force, he would call
Siniora immediately to say that he accepts the formula of
four ministries in a 30-member cabinet, without reference to
the Hizballah demands. End comment.
FELTMAN