LAHOUD REJECTS PATRIARCH'S CALL TO QUIT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003703

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2026
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM LE SY
SUBJECT: LAHOUD REJECTS PATRIARCH'S CALL TO QUIT

Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (S) In a one-on-one 11/27 meeting with the Ambassador,
Maronite Patriarch Sfeir -- asking that this information be
closely held -- revealed that he had recently sent a written
letter to President Emile Lahoud suggesting that Lahoud
resign for the sake of Lebanon. Faced with Lahoud's
rejection of his request, Sfeir concluded that Lahoud was
trapped by Syria. Sfeir also concluded that both Parliament
Speaker Berri and Michel Aoun are "imprisoned" by Syria,
Iran, and Hizballah. Deeply concerned about reports of a
U.S. softening on Syria, Sfeir was reassured by the
Ambassador's message that U.S. support for Lebanon remains
strong and non-negotiable. Sfeir expressed satisfaction with
a drop in Aoun's popularity, claiming that even some of
Aoun's deputies no longer support him, but he lamented at his
inability to dissuade Aoun from sending followers to the
street to join Hizballah demonstrators. While insisting that
a solution to Lebanon's problems should begin with a change
in the presidency, Sfeir was pessimistic that such a change
was imminent. Sfeir repeated his recent statements about the
ideal presidential candidate being someone who can bridge the
March 8-March 14 divide. In closing the meeting with a
reference to former Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Simon
Karam, Sfeir hinted that he may be looking beyond the usual
list of presidential candidates for an acceptable choice.
End summary.

A MESSAGE TO lAHOUD: QUIT
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2. (S) Accepting the Ambassador's message of condolence
over the murder of Minister Pierre Gemayel, Patriarch Sfeir
noted that he is deeply worried about political developments.
Asking the Ambassador to protect this information, he
revealed the reason behind the unusual meeting between Beirut
Bishop Abu Jaoude and President Emile Lahoud a few days
earlier: angered by Pierre Gemayel's murder and presumed
Syrian complicity, Sfeir sent what he claimed was a sharply
worded written letter to Lahoud, delivered by Abu Jaoude. In
it, Sfeir suggested that Lahoud resign for the sake of
Lebanon, the Maronite community, and the Lahoud family.
Lahoud read the letter and asked Abu Jaoude to tell the
Patriarch that he will not leave office until the last minute
of his extended mandate. Based on Abu Jaoude's briefing of
Lahoud's reaction, Sfeir concluded that the President is
trapped by the Syrians, unable to take a decision and fearful
for his life. Lahoud "is impossible." Sfeir looked
horrified when the Ambassador suggested allowing the written
letter to leak, in hopes of embarrassing Lahoud into
quitting. In Sfeir's view, such an intentional leak would
taint the Patriarchate of playing "dirty politics," whatever
the benefits to Lebanon.

LIKE LAHOUD, AOUN REJECTS
PATRIARCH'S REQUEST
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3. (S) Sfeir glumly noted that Parliament Speaker Berri and
even MP Michel Aoun, like Lahoud, also seem to be trapped in
a Syrian-Iranian-Hizballah prison. Sfeir noted that at least
Berri's "servility" to Iran is understandable, given the
reality of Shia relations. But Michel Aoun walked willingly
into "the Syrian prison." Sfeir lamented that Aoun seems to
be "as deaf as Lahoud," in that Aoun has rejected the
Patriarch's request not to join Hizballah-organized street
demonstrations. At least, the Patriarch said (with obvious
satisfaction),Aoun's support is dropping. Referring to Aoun
bloc MPs who have been visiting the Patriarch, Sfeir claimed
that even Aoun deputies in some cases no longer support him,
"although they don't dare to say so."

CONCERN ABOUT USG SOFTENING
VIS-A-VIS SYRIA
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4. (SBU) The Patriarch cited with concern articles in the
pro-Syrian Lebanese press citing the Iraq Study group to
argue that the USG position toward Syria is softening. The
Ambassador reaffirmed to the Patriarch the strong,
bipartisan, White House-Congressional support for Lebanon.
This support is not negotiable, the Ambassador said; USG
policy supporting Lebanese independence and sovereignty has
not and will not change. "Good, good," the Patriarch

BEIRUT 00003703 002 OF 002


responded.

LOOKING FOR A BRIDGING CANDIDATE
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5. (S) Asked by the Ambassador about the best way out of
Lebanon's current political impasse, Sfeir responded that a
permanent solution should start with a change in the
presidency. "But how?" he asked, saying that he saw "no way
forward." He repeated his recent statements that the ideal
president should be someone who can bridge the gaps between
the March 8 and March 14 blocs, someone who has credibility
with both camps. The person should be "honest,' with
sufficient moral authority to restore the presidency after
the "vacuum" created by Emile Lahoud. The Ambassador noted
that, previously, Sfeir had spoken favorably of March 14
candidates. Saying that it was "too late," Sfeir said that
the person must be able to talk to "all the Lebanese from
equal distance." Sfeir would not be drawn out to comment on
names, except to reject LAF Commander Michel Sleiman ("we
don't need another military man") and question the stamina of
the octogenarian gourmand Michel Edde. But, intriguingly, as
the meeting closed and the Patriarch accompanied the
Ambassador to the door, Sfeir asked whether the Ambassador
knew Simon Karam (former Lebanese Ambassador to Washington
and a founding member of the Qornet Shehwan Christian
opposition group superceded by the March 14 movement). When
the Ambassador responded affirmatively, the Patriarch said
that Karam "is a good man."

COMMENT
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6. (S) During Christmas mass eleven months ago, the
Patriarch -- with Emile Lahoud in the congregation --
ellipitically called for Lahoud to resign, by asking the
President to do what was best for Lebanon. Sfeir, while not
sharing the text, insisted that he was clearer this time.
This is a dramatic step. Given the confidentiality Sfeir
shared by acknowledging this letter, we must not be the
source of a leak of this letter's existence. But Lebanon is
a small enough place that rumors about this letter will
surely surface from other sources. When this letter does
eventually become public (preferably in its full text),it
will contribute to the momentum for Lahoud's removal. And if
Sfeir was floating a trial balloon with his references to
Simon Karam, we see a problem: Nabih Berri opposes him based
on local politics in the south, the home base for both.
FELTMAN