LEBANON: EX-FOREIGN MINISTER POSITIONS HIMSELF AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003657

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: EX-FOREIGN MINISTER POSITIONS HIMSELF AS
CENTRIST FOR PRESIDENCY


Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: Section 1.4 (d
)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Ex-Foreign Minister and Presidential hopeful Jean
Obeid attributes Lebanon's problems to external forces and to
the inadequacy of current leaders in Beirut and Damascus.
Citing a Shia-Sunni conflict spanning the entire Muslim
world, Obeid espouses a neutral Lebanese presidency allied
with neither sect. Not coincidentally, this is the latest
position emphasized by the Maronite Patriarch, with whom
Obeid has been strengthening his relations recently in an
attempt to overcome his pro-Syrian past and become that
"neutral" candidate. End Summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador called November 15 on Jean Obeid, a
former Maronite MP from Tripoli who served as Foreign
Minister under the last Rafiq Hariri government. Obeid once
boasted of close ties to the Syrian regime, but it appears
that he may have fallen out of favor in Damascus for reasons
that are unclear. He has made the best of this reversal of
fortunes by positioning himself with the Maronite Patriarch
and others as a "neutral" presidential contender. Obeid is
the uncle of current Finance Minister Jihad Azour and a
relative of American lebanese Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM)
President Salim Zeenni.

REGIONAL DIMENSIONS OF LEBANON'S CONFLICT
--------------


3. (C) Obeid's message stressed the regional dimensions of
the current Lebanese political crisis. Known as an "Arab
nationalist," he repeatedly pointed to the Sunni/Shia
conflict raging "from Afghanistan to Mauritania." The
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran's regional and nuclear
ambitions, and Syria's greed for Lebanon all feed into
Lebanese domestic political strife. "Some Lebanese are
adding to the conflict," he added. The question is how to
isolate Lebanon from this vast conflict, not involve Lebanon
in it. However, there is a lot of Sunni and Shia money
flowing in from outside which fuels the sectarian conflict in
Lebanon.


4. (C) In his new guise as a centrist, Obeid had criticism
for all parties. "The minority has no patience and the
majority has no modesty," he said. Obeid criticized what he
sees as the tendency of the majority -- i.e., March 14 -- to
make decisions unilaterally without adequate consultation
with other parties. Prime Minister Siniora, he said, does
not spare the time to contact and consult other government
figures, as compared with Rafiq Hariri, who was in frequent
contact with officials at all levels including mayors. Obeid
claimed to have told Siniora, "Don't expect the U.S., France
and Saudi Arabia to do your work for you" in settling issues
with other Lebanese parties. Siniora will have to do more
himself. As for the U.S. role, Obeid recommended that any
initiatives or positions taken by the USG be presented as
Lebanese policy, rather than USG policy.


5. (C) Obeid cited the cabinet's November 13 approval of the
Hariri assassination tribunal as another example of March 14
unilateralism. After months of preparation for the
acceptance of the tribunal, he asked, why could the GOL not
wait another few days before pushing the tribunal decision
through? Additionally, it seems as if March 14 has already
made up its mind about the tribunal's verdict. Such a
position would only corner "a violent regime," he warned.
"You must not give it pretexts every day."


6. (C) If the majority needs a spirit of modesty and
inclusiveness, he continued, the minority -- i.e., Hizballah,
Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, and other pro-Syrian
groups -- needs patience. "They don't take into
consideration that there was an election." The minority's
backers, Iran and Syria, are becoming more strident in their
demands, not more reasonable, and their relative power is
increasing. Lebanon is heading toward more violence, he
gloomily asserted.


7. (C) Lebanon needs to guide its Shia river into the

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Lebanese sea, he added. Hizballah is strong toward outside
threats, like Israel, but weak or inept toward internal
Lebanese parties.

EXCLUSION DESTABILIZES LEBANON
--------------


8. (C) Obeid turned on President Lahoud and his apparent
position that Christians are part of a Christian-Shia axis
confronting Sunni and Druze. While these alliances may
shift, they are always bad for Lebanon. The Lebanese
president, he said, should play the role of a bridge between
confessional groups. If two out of Lebanon's three largest
groups line up against the other, there will be continuous
war. Obeid praised the Patriarch's position that the
president must lead Lebanon's Christians out of sectarian
strife. The Patriarch does not want Christians to fight
Christians nor Muslims to fight Muslims.


9. (C) Michel Aoun, he added, does not comprehend the mind of
Christians. Samir Ja'ja' does not comprehend the heart of
Christians. President Lahoud is feeding the flames and
creating walls, not bridges, between groups. Lebanon cannot
be safe with a president who is part of a Christian-Sunni or
Christian-Shia axis. Lebanon also cannot afford a President
who is either an agent or an enemy of Syria.

TRIBUNAL
--------------


10. (C) Obeid agreed with the Ambassador's assertion that the
Hariri assassination tribunal would be an important because
it would be held in accordance with strict international
standards on evidence and other elements of investigation and
proof. However, he asserted that the SARG is "afraid,
because they know more than you know." The reason for the
extension of Lahoud's term, he said, and he had just
comprehend this -- was so that Lahoud could "cover up
anything" related to the assassination and related crimes.
(Comment: The extension of Lahou's term occurred more than
five months before the Hariri assassination. End Comment.)


11. (C) The tribunal will take 3-6 years, Obeid asserted.
Obeid, a lawyer, cited to the Ambassador the length of the
tribunal to investigate Libyan involvement in the Lockerbie
airline bombing. After such a length of time, he continued,
how can the international community hope to carry out the
sentence? On the other hand, by so clearly working against
the tribunal, Bashar al-Asad and Emile Lahoud are indicting
themselves before anyone accuses them. Bashar al-Asad, for
example, "opens the grave of Rafiq Hariri every time he gives
a speech."

FAILURE OF LEADERSHIP
--------------


12. (C) Saad Hariri, Bashar al-Asad, and Walid Jumblatt --
none of them measure up to their fathers, Obeid lamented.
When he went to Damascus to pay his respects following the
suicide of Ghazi Kenaan, the atmosphere was very tense.
Ditto when he returned to Syria to pay a condolence call on
Mustapha Tlas. One of the causes of this tension was
Jumblatt's remark to the effect that al-Asad would be hauled
before the tribunal, like Milosevic. Asad, however, had also
picked a useless fight with Saudi King Abdullah, and Obeid
said that he told him via Butheina Shaban "you are an expert
at losing friends and opportunities."


13. (C) Despite his close Baathist connections, Obeid
maintained he was never a Baathist. But one can't live in
the Arab world and not know the mentality of all Arabs.
There are Christian leaders, he lamented, who don't know how
to deal with the other parties or with each other. Amin
Gemayel, he related, had once demanded that they leave his
office to have a private conversation for fear that his own
brother Bashir had bugged it.
FELTMAN