UN ENVOY SEES HARDENING OF HIZBALLAH POSITION

S E C R E T BEIRUT 003655

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2026
TAGS: PTER PGOV KDEM LE SY
SUBJECT: UN ENVOY SEES HARDENING OF HIZBALLAH POSITION
LINKED TO TRIBUNAL, 1701


Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S/NF) Geir Pedersen, the UN Secretary General's Personal
Representative for Lebanon, told the Ambassador in a 11/17
meeting that he had seen his "usual contact" (whom he once
revealed as Wafiq Safa') from Hizballah that morning.
Pedersen said that the meeting contained mostly bad news, but
with one bit of good news: While convinced that Hizballah's
tactics remained the same and were coordinated down to the
smallest detail with Michel Aoun's son-in-law and advisor
Gebran Bassil, Pedersen said he no longer believed that
street demonstrations and civil disobedience would break out
on Monday or Tuesday (11/20 or 11/21). "It seems we have
some time, maybe even more than a week" Pedersen said, adding
that his contact projected confidence that his side would win
in the current political stand-off with the March 14 majority.


2. (S/NF) But, across the board, Hizballah's substantive
positions have hardened, Pedersen reported. Regarding the
cabinet, specific proposals should be shared with Parliament
Speaker Berri, not Hizballah, but the one-third-plus-one
blocking minority is no longer sufficient. Hizballah wants
Siniora removed. On the presidency, Hizballah will back
whomever Michel Aoun wants, so there's no reason to discuss
the presidency with Hizballah. On its arms, UNSCR 1559, and
UNSCR 1701, Hizballah rejects any discussion. When pressed
by Pedersen about when such issues can be discussed, the
contact answered perhaps after the liberation of Sheba'
Farms. On the special tribunal, the contact said that
Hizballah shares the same concerns as Emile Lahoud (who gave
a 32-page criticism of the tribunal documents to Minister of
Justice Charles Rizk) and was expecting the UN and the GOL to
take Lahoud's concerns into account. Most alarming, Pedersen
said, was his contact's assertion that, every week, Hizballah
and Aoun will offer Lebanon "a new surprise" until Siniora's
cabinet is swept away. Pressed by Pedersen to define the
type of surprises, the contact said that they would be
"peaceful," "constitutional," and "democratic."


3. (S/NF) Pedersen said that he also asked his contact
about disturbing reports that wanted terrorist mastermind
Imad Mughniyah was now acting as Hassan Nasrallah's deputy.
Pedersen said that he felt he had struck a nerve, for,
unusually, his contact refused to make any comment.


4. (S/NF) Pedersen said that he could not tell whether
Hizballah's positions had truly hardened or whether his
contact was bluffing and sending a message, knowing how often
Pedersen compares notes with March 14 political leaders and
diplomatic colleagues. But Pedersen said that he was
starting to conclude that the impact of UNSCR 1701
implementation had unpleasantly surprised Hizballah and that
the speed of the processing of the special tribunal documents
had unpleasantly surprised Damascus. Pedersen wondered how
far Hizballah would go in stymieing 1701 and blocking the
tribunal. From his meeting that day, he answered his own
question by stating "pretty far, it seems."
FELTMAN