LEBANON: A BATTLE PLAN EMERGES, AND SWIFT ACTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003650

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: A BATTLE PLAN EMERGES, AND SWIFT ACTION
IS REQUIRED


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Minister of Telecommunications Marwan Hamadeh told
the Ambassador and Emboff on 11/17 that the GOL is desperate
for strong support from the USG and other allies. They will
fight Lahoud on constitutional grounds, while attempting to
bring Berri back into the fold. Outlining the strong
tactical maneuvers planned to defend the Siniora government,
the Minister also made a number of urgent requests to the
USG, and to other foreign governments, in particular a swift
work on the special tribunal and increased Turkish
participation in UNIFIL. Ministers will travel to the UN and
to see Chirac, while members of parliament will stage a show
of support. There will be a call for a vote of confidence in
the Parliament. End summary.

GOL BEGGING FOR IMMEDIATE HELP
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2. (C) Marwan Hamadeh, Minister of Telecoms, requested an
urgent meeting with the Ambassador on November 17. A tired
and subdued Hamadeh, who admitted to being in March 14
strategy meetings until 2:15 a.m. the night before,
immediately launched into a detailed plan of attack
determined by the March 14 coalition, designed to contain
Speaker Nabih Berri, and spike the guns of Hizballah, Iran
and the Syrians, with the key action related to the special
tribunal looking into the assassinations of former PM Rafiq
Hariri and others.


3. (C) Hamadeh made a number of action requests of the USG,
but the most important was the swift adoption by the UNSC of
the documents regarding the special tribunal by the UN on
Monday; "Put that number one." He said that Walid Jumblatt
stressed that when he was in Washington recently, and they
believe it is the only way to contain Syria. The tribunal
will also corner President Emile Lahoud. The GOL will not
try to change the text, and will also make some moves to the
Russians and Chinese to promote approval. He has been
assured by Russian Ambassador Sergi Boukin that the Russians
have now concurred in avoiding any changes to to the text in
any substantive manner. Several Palestinian ministers have
been phoning with warnings, among them Salam Fayad, who said,
"The battle of Assad against the tribunal is being waged in
Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine." Hamadeh wondered if this was
because UNIIIC Commissioner Brammertz had finally found
something implicating Syria.

MULTI-FACETED BATTLE PLAN
--------------


4. (C) Hamadeh reported that, to counter Emile Lahoud's
insistence that PM Siniora's tenure is illegal and
unconstitutional, Members of Parliament are being sent in
groups to Siniora to show support. In response to the
Ambassador's assertion that Siniora seemed confident and
strong, Hamadeh said, "we are keeping him that way." Memos
are being sent to all embassies asking them to support the
legitimacy of the current government. Minister of Culture
(and Acting Foreign Minister) Tariq Mitri and Minister of
Justice Charles Rizk may be sent to the UN to press for quick
action on the tribunal and show that the will to implement
the tribunal is not weakening. Hamadeh said that he would
travel s ecretly to Paris later on 11/17 to meet with
President Jacques Chirac.


5. (C) In his meeting with Chirac, Hamadeh will ask the same
things he asks of the USG, beginning with "a more resolute
attitude." Saying that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the president of
Iran, publicly announced that he will wage war against the US
in Lebanon, political support from allies and strengthening
of the Arab attitude are vital. In addition, Lebanon
requires more delivery of arms for the LAF, and most
critical, a secure telecommunications system to defeat
Hizballah spies. "Send Nortel or whomever to install this
immediately," he begged.

MORE TURKS FOR UNIFIL DESIRED
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6. (C) Because UNSCR 1701 is a target of the pro-Syrians,
along with the tribunal, UNIFIL should be strengthened,
Hamadeh argued. If Hizballah and the Syrians are allowed to

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run UNIFIL out of the south through attacks disguised to
appear to be al-Qaida, it will heighten the tension with
Israel. With that in mind Hamadeh would like to see more
pressure put on the Turks to assist. He would like to see
1000 additional Turkish soldiers in the south, and thinks
that the Turks could pressure both Syria and Iran, if they
chose to do so. The Syrians and Iranians, Hamadeh suggested,
are intimidated by the Turks and would be reluctant to
promote attacks against a Turk-filled UNIFIL. Finally, some
"gestures" on both over flights and Sheb'a Farms are critical
as well.

BERRI PRESENTS A SPECIAL PROBLEM
--------------


7. (C) Hamadeh said that working with Speaker Berri is very
difficult now. Saad Hariri is still very upset with Berri.
The statements Berri made in Iran were bad. With Minister of
Information Ghazi Aridi (like Hamadeh, allied with Jumblatt)
having failed to soften Berri's attitude, MP Boutros Harb,
considered close to the Speaker, was being sent today to talk
to Berri. On Thursday, Walid Jumblatt tried to bring Berri
around to supporting the tribunal, saying. "You can't do that
to Rafiq Hariri -- he was your friend." Berri's answer was,
"Walid, the Syrians will not let us." Describing Berri
yesterday as, "like the Sphinx," Hamadeh was not hopeful that
today would be different but they would approach him again.
(Note: During the Ambassador's meeting with Hamadeh, Berri's
office called on the Ambassador's cell phone to ask for a
meeting on Saturday.)

A LEGAL FIGHT
--------------


8. (C) Hamadeh also outlined the plan to fight Lahoud via
the constitution. A request has been sent to Lahoud with an
agenda, as required under the constitution, for a meeting of
the Council of Ministers on Thursday of next week. It will
be returned by Lahoud, who will say that the council cannot
meet. The government will then ask for a vote of confidence
from the parliament, which is currently in session. Knowing
that the March 14 cabinet will easily win a parliamentary
vote of confidence, Berri will not call for the parliamentary
meeting. Basing this argument on the preamble to the
constitution, which states that the people, through the
common bodies, are the source of all powers, the March 14
leaders will continue the fight on legal grounds. If this is
not accepted they will propose the names of five new unknown
Shiite ministers -- "We will get them," Hamadeh said (when
the Ambassador asked whether there were Shia willing to break
with the Hizballah-Amal solidarity to come forth as
ministerial candidates). In the end, Hamadeh said, March 14
will be able to present both Speaker Berri and President
Lahoud as taking positions breaching the constitution.

TACTICS
--------------


9. (C) Knowing that the Ambassador would be meeting with
Saad Hariri and Siniora, Hamadeh suggested some messages to
pass along. "Tell Saad" that there should be pressure
brought on the Arab countries to attend the official
celebrations for Lebanese National Day on Wednesday, but to
send lower-ranking officials to Lahoud's celebrations at
Baabda Palace, as the other embassies plan to do. And tell
Siniora that the Syrians "want his neck; it is not just a
question of government." He said that both Jumblatt and
Hariri are convinced of that as well.


10. (C) Asked about his expectations regarding approaching
violence, he cited two recent victories: the student
elections at AUB and, in "the citadel of Aoun," Antonine
University, both of which showed a decrease of support for
Aoun compared to last year. Hamadeh expects that there might
be low-key actions starting Sunday or Monday. On a more
personal level, he shared yet another warrant for his arrest,
along with Jumblatt and others for crimes against the state,
issued by Syria. He asked that the Ambassador tell Serge
Brammertz that they receive threats all the time. He also
said that the purported al-Qaida threats had actually been
made by Palestinians, who were in effect Syrian-created
al-Qaeda.

FELTMAN