LEBANON: DEFMIN ON LAF STABILITY, CHANGES UNDER A

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003619

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV KCRM MARR MAS PREL PTER SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: DEFMIN ON LAF STABILITY, CHANGES UNDER A
NEW CABINET, TRIBUNAL

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b
) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S) In a meeting with visiting Assistant Secretary of
Defense Rodman, Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister and Defense
Minister Murr expressed appreciation for continued U.S.
support for the LAF, and hoped that such support would
continue in the form of light materiel to be used in the
LAF's daily operations. The LAF is an important source for
stability in Lebanon and in the region, and should be an
important bilateral partner in counter-terrorism. The LAF
will retain control of its troops and equipment but its
counter-terrorism policy and aid relationships will probably
change if the March 8 coalition gets a blocking minority in
the cabinet. Additional communications equipment assistance
might improve LAF and UNIFIL interoperability. In terms of
Lebanon's domestic political developments, Murr reported that
national consultations will resume for a final day on
November 11. He remarked that it would be best to have a
decision on the international tribunal before then if at all
possible. End Summary.

APPRECIATION FOR U.S. SUPPORT
--------------


2. (C) Assistant Secretary of Defense for International
Security Affairs Peter Rodman met with Deputy Prime Minister
and Defense Minister Elias Murr on November 9, just in
advance of the signing of a bilateral assistance agreement
providing USD 10 million worth of equipment to the Lebanese
Armed Forces (LAF). Murr expressed appreciation for Rodman's
visit at such a sensitive time in Lebanon, and for the
continuity of U.S. support for the LAF despite changes in
Lebanese governments. By contrast, some of Lebanon's
European friends have a less predictable level of support or
aid only for the Internal Security Forces (ISF).
Nevertheless, the Europeans expect the LAF to step in during
periods of instability or on counter-terrorism issues that
might otherwise be handled by the ISF.


3. A/S Rodman reiterated the bipartisan basis of U.S.
support for the LAF and for a sovereign, democratic, peaceful
Lebanon. He explained that the Department of Defense's
long-term assessment called for the U.S. to contribute to
future LAF reforms. He reminded Murr of U.S. efforts to
encourage Arab and European allies to increase their support
as well. Murr made a plea for continued bilateral assistance
to the LAF, arguing that without the LAF, Lebanon could
collapse into pieces "like a little Iraq," and thus not be
able to be to serve as a symbol of democracy for the region.


4. (S/NF) Murr declared that the LAF needs a strong message
of support from the United States in the form of light
materiel that can be seen and used on a daily basis. More
"morale building equipment" such as the HMMWVs, due to arrive
in December, can be seen by the Lebanese people on a daily
basis and help the 14,000 LAF special forces conduct patrols.
Terrorism will continue to be a problem in Lebanon and the
region, and thus counter-terrorism will remain an important
area for bilateral cooperation. The LAF "strike force,"
which has a deep relationship with the U.S. in strategic
counter-terrorism operations, is held back by old equipment
and civilian cars.

COMMAND AND CONTROL OF THE LAF
--------------


5. (C) Asking about the danger of LAF property falling into
the wrong hands, Murr explained that the LAF has a good track
record in retaining command and control of its personnel and
arms, even in the event of civil wars and changes in
government. Under Murr, the LAF has limited the role of Shia
in its forces to preserve stability in the event of internal
problems. The LAF has decreased the Shia participation from
over 50 percent to just 16 percent through recruiting
non-Shia soldiers. The LAF has retained control of its
materiel throughout its history, without losing equipment to
domestic or foreign militants. (Comment: While Murr has
indeed focused on recruitment to lower the Shia percentage of
the army, we find both sides of his equation to be
exaggerated. The real figures probably show something in the
range of a drop of 40 to 30 percent Shia. End comment.)


BEIRUT 00003619 002 OF 002



6. (C) The LAF's counter-terrorism policy and aid
relationships, however, would probably change if the March 8
coalition were to win a blocking minority in the Lebanese
cabinet, as they are seeking. More broadly, Murr believes
that an expanded cabinet with a March 8 blocking minority
would present many problems. Such a cabinet might block the
UN-sponsored international tribunal to try Hariri's
assassins, and it could oppose certain helpful operations
under UNSCR 1701. A blocking minority could have a direct
and unhelpful impact on decision on the election of the next
president, and it could impede certain kinds of international
aid to Lebanon. For that reason, Murr argued, Lebanon needs
U.S. pressure on the Saudis, Egyptians, and others who might
influence Syria and its allies inside Lebanon to stop their
interference.


7. (C) Murr, in response to a request for ideas for
additional U.S. aid to increase interoperability particularly
with UNIFIL, identified communications equipment as an area
where new equipment could help. Communications are going
well under the current, non-secure technology but better and
faster systems could increase efficiency. LAF deployment in
the south is progressing "perfectly," with the LAF and UNIFIL
working "like a single army" and LAF officers inside the
UNIFIL operations room. There have been no conflicts between
the two forces in the south, at sea, or on the border with
Syria, he said.

TRIBUNAL AND OTHER CONCERNS
--------------


7. (S) Murr received a call during the bilateral assistance
signing ceremony -- and immediately translated the message
for his guests: it was an update on the decision to adjourn
the national political consultations until November 11, which
would be the last day for the consultations. It would be
best to have a decision on the UN Independent International
Investigation Commission tribunal, a controversial political
issue, before November 11 if at all possible, he remarked.


8. (U) Press questions after the signing ceremony focused on
whether the agreement or bilateral cooperation would be
affected by the mid-term congressional elections in the U.S.
or a potential change in government in Lebanon, and whether
U.S. aid to Lebanon might ever approach the quantity of U.S.
aid to Israel.
FELTMAN