Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BEIRUT3608
2006-11-13 12:08:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

LEBANON: HARIRI PREPARED TO PASS TRIBUNAL,

Tags:  KCRM PREL PTER LE SY 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6186
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #3608/01 3171208
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 131208Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6429
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0504
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003608 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016
TAGS: KCRM PREL PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HARIRI PREPARED TO PASS TRIBUNAL,
EXPECTS SHIA RESIGNATIONS AND VIOLENCE


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003608

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016
TAGS: KCRM PREL PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HARIRI PREPARED TO PASS TRIBUNAL,
EXPECTS SHIA RESIGNATIONS AND VIOLENCE


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) The Ambassador and Econoff met with Saad Hariri on
November 11 to discuss the results of that morning's national
consultations and the March 14 coalition's plans. Hariri
reported that the coalition is unified, will not back down in
refusing to give the pro-Syrians and Aoun a blocking
minority, and intends to approve the UN tribunal drafts on
Monday. Hariri predicted that the Shia cabinet ministers
would resign, and that Lebanon was likely to see additional
bombings and assassinations soon, as Syria and its allies
feel more threatened by the approval of the tribunal. A half
hour into the meeting, one of Hariri's staff announced that
the Shia cabinet ministers had resigned. Finally, Hariri
asked for greater U.S. military assistance to Lebanon. End
Summary.

MARCH 14 REMAINS UNITED, DETERMINED
--------------


2. (C) the Ambassador began by congratulating the March 14
coalition for holding fast and making Hizballah think twice
about taking to the streets. Hariri commented that the March
14 coalition indeed remains solid, the Prime Minister is
"very strong," and the group will fight "all the way" to
retain Justice Minister Charles Rizk.


3. (C) Responding to to the Ambassador, Hariri reported that
the March 14 coalition is not working to split Aoun away from
Hizballah. At the same time, they can see that Aoun's
followers don't want to be a part of street violence and
there is some potential for a split in the Aoun camp. Hariri
criticized Aoun for being inflexible and having a history of
alliance with the Syrians. Hariri had been serious about
offering Aoun inclusion in the cabinet, giving him four seats
and expanding the cabinet to 30. He believes that many
Christians are asking the Maronite Patriarch to tell Aoun to
accept just four cabinet slots, but Aoun is unwilling to
compromise. Hizballah pretended to support Aoun for the
presidency, but before the war Nasrallah had told Haririri

that he would never trust Aoun. There is no new hope for a
change in the presidency, and control of the presidency is
another reason why Hizballah and Aoun insist on a blocking
minority (one third of the cabinet plus one).


4. (C) Hariri said that he now has absolutely no dialogue
with Hizballah. He tried to see Hassan Nasrallah at the end
of Ramadan but Nasrallah refused him. "I've tried to find a
solution, and in this showdown with Hizballah, my conscience
is clear," Hariri remarked. "We tried to find a way to work
with them in the government and they fought to stay with
Iran."

SAAD PREDICTS RESIGNATONS,
VIOLENCE, TRIBUNAL PASSAGE
--------------


5. (C) Hariri predicted that pro-Syrian cabinet ministers
would resign on Saturday, without specifying grounds for
their resignation, and expected Syrian-ordered bombings and
assassinations to follow. A half hour into the meeting with
the Ambassador, one of Hariri's staff interrupted the meeting
with the news that the five Shia cabinet ministers had
resigned from the cabinet. Hariri immediately commented,
"this is all for the tribunal." Hariri favored the idea that
PM Siniora not accept the resignations, commenting that the
ministers leaving the government at such a time of national
crisis is "unacceptable." Such people can't be trusted with
a blocking minority. He also vowed to proceed with Monday's
cabinet meeting and passage of the interntional tribunal
legislation.


6. (C) Hariri said the tribunal is the first real move
against Syria under the current government, and will create a
new mood in the country. Short of killing Siniora, nothing
can stop the cabinet from signing the draft legislation on
Monday. The document has been officially circulated and
added to the cabinet agenda. Although Lahoud may not come to
the cabinet meeting in an effort to cripple it, the cabinet
will override the President's objection and the resignations
won't disrupt the cabinet's 2/3 majority. Hariri attributed
the withdrawal of Russian objections to the tribunal

BEIRUT 00003608 002 OF 002


documents to French President Chirac's influence.


7. (C) Hariri worried that increased radical allegiance to
Hizballah since the war could be translated into allegiance
to Iran, which would be dangerous if Khamenei issues a fatwa
to bring down the GOL. Hizballah knows that street action
will lose for the party all that it has gained in the Arab
world but, Hariri wondered, will Hizballah prompt this
nonetheless? Hizballah is now seeking GOL guarantees that it
will not try to disarm Hizballah's forces, rather than
seeking the personal guarantees of individual leaders that
previously satisfied them.

U.S. ASSISTANCE NEEDED
--------------


8. (C) Hariri urged that the U.S. take action against Syria
("move the Sixth Fleet offshore Latakia and see what
happens"),and asked what the U.S. was prepared to do if
bombings and assassinations started again. He urged more
U.S. aid to the LAF. He is planning to accompany a
parliamentary delegation to visit Congress, and suggested
that the U.S. send a naval presence to Lebanon to intimidate
Hizballah and prevent it from acting." He also asked that
U.S. officials "be bullish" on Paris III, urging that pledges
be twice as large as at Paris II.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Rumors are circulating in Beirut that Hariri had
made -- and then broke -- a deal with Nabih Berri and
Hizballah (via MP Mohammed Ra'ad) that, in return for Shia
support of the special tribunal, Hariri would get March 14
leaders on board for conceding a blocking minority to the
Shia and Michel Aoun. With us, Hariri absolutely rejected
the concept of giving up the blocking minority. We don't
know what the truth is. It is plausible that the impetuous
Hariri would have been so ill-advised as to offer such a
trade-off and then faced rejections by Jumblatt, Siniora, and
others. But it is equally plausible that the pro-Syrians are
planting such a story knowing that it will be believed and
will contribute to resentment against Hariri by all sides.
FELTMAN