LEBANON: NEA DAS DANIN MEETING WITH TELECOMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003394

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2016
TAGS: ECPS ENRG MARR PGOV PREL PTER LE EU
SUBJECT: LEBANON: NEA DAS DANIN MEETING WITH TELECOMS
MINISTER MARWAN HAMADEH

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Christopher Murray. Reason: Section
1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) On October 18, visiting NEA DAS Robert Danin, Charge
and Econoff met with Lebanese Telecoms Minister and March 14
Group activist Marwan Hamadeh. Hamadeh said that the March
14 group's recently reviewed its goals, noting that Lebanon
risks returning to a pre-Hariri assassination political
stalemate. As a result, the group reaffirmed the need to
push forward and advance reform on the part of the GOL.
Hamadeh outlined the need for support from the USG and EU,
especially in the area of border security. Satisfied with
the support for the GOL from moderate Arab regimes, he noted
that he was very worried about Syria and Iran. Nonetheless,
Hamadeh expressed optimism about Lebanon's future. End
Summary.

MARCH 14 PARLIAMENTARY BLOC REAFFIRM THEIR GOALS
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2. (C) As a result of an extensive review by the March 14
coalition two days ago, Hamadeh said, the group has outlined
a number of objectives for the coming months. The most
important is resistance to any attempt to bring down the
current government prior to the presidential elections in the
fall of 2007. He explained that if anyone -- and he referred
several times to both the Iranians and the Syrians as likely
candidates -- is able to bring down the current government,
then Lebanon will move back to its "pre-Hariri state."
Hamadeh said that the March 14 supporters would "go to the
street" if they needed to do so, in response to any such
action by Hizballah. He indicated that any weakening of the
March 14 Cabinet majority, including dilution by additional
ministers, combined with the continuing tenures of President
Lahoud and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri would leave the
Syrians as influential as they had been prior to March 14,

2005.


3. (C) Further March 14 objectives now included a resolve on
the part of the GOL to enhance the security forces. Rather
than returning back to an era of militias, the GOL and the
Lebanese people want a strong, professional force on the part
of the state. In that vein, he said that the Lebanese Armed
Forces (LAF) have greater standing than before the
July-August war, and are therefore in a better position to be
strengthened as a non-sectarian institution. Again, as a
part of measures to shore up security, he explained that the
GOL is taking steps to become more aware of threats, and to
be pro-active in response, citing a recent incident where the
security services foiled an alleged plot by Hizballah to
occupy the government palace.


4. (C) With regard to external affairs, Hamadeh reaffirmed
that the GOL is moving aggressively to prepare for the
upcoming donor's conference, which he referred to as Paris
III, and to address further reform in government. He said
the GOL plans to speed up progress towards a vote on the
statute establishing the international tribunal on the Hariri
assassination and related crimes. He said the documents will
be out in a few days, and will be supported, at least at this
stage, by everyone including President Lahoud. He also said
that they believe that the tribunal measure will deter Syria
interference.

SUPPORT IS REQUIRED FROM
BOTH THE U.S. AND THE EU
--------------


5. (C) Hamadeh spoke to areas where he felt that support
from both the USG and the EU was critical. While he is
optimistic about Lebanon's capabilities, he said that little
will be achieved without the support of friends who can
contain Syria, particularly any growing inclination to engage
Damascus by the international community. He raised the need
to resolve the issue of Israeli overflights by the Israelis,
suggesting possible compensatory steps, including aerial
surveillance by the Europeans and/or border monitors (which
he said will never seal the Syrian-Lebanese border but can
serve a critical role in tracking materiel as it moves into
and within Lebanon). Perhaps, he suggested, these elements
could be combined into a package deal that would end the
overflights.


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6. (C) Hamadeh also suggested that other pressing issues
included a need to address Sheba'a Farms and the deployment
of UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon. Hamadeh reiterated
that any perceived progress towards addressing the issue of
Sheba'a Farms would be useful for the GOL in the process of
disarming Hizballah, and would remove a major complaint of
the Shia. He said that it is important that UNIFIL troop
strength increase quickly, and that the Turks arrive soon
since "everyone fears the Turks." He noted that Turkey's
centuries-old history with Syria and Iran will give both
countries pause to reconsider provocations in southern
Lebanon if Turks are present. Finally, Hamadeh said he would
like to see a return to the 1949 Armistice Agreement as the
defining document between Lebanon and Israel.

OTHER ARAB NATIONS
--------------


7. (C) According to Hamadeh, Lebanon is firmly aligned with
other moderate Arab regimes in resisting Syria, Iran and
Hizballah. In particular, he was pleased with the strong
position Saudi Arabia maintains towards Lebanon. He noted
that the Saudis invited Abdel Halim Khaddam, the former vice
president of Syria and now regime opponent, to visit during
Jidda and Riyadh during Ramadan, and that Khaddam took them
up on the offer. Hamadeh also pointed out that even Qatar is
having a hard time with Syria. In accordance with UNSCR
1701, he said that Lebanon should establish diplomatic
relations with Syria, but given that Prime Minister Siniora
has put that on the agenda for his proposed meeting in
Damascus, the Syrians have so far not been willing to confirm
the meeting.

IRANIANS, SYRIANS AND HIZBALLAH
--------------


8. (C) Hamadeh expressed considerable concern about combined
efforts on the part of Hizballah, Syria and Iran, with Iran
the driving force behind the group. He believes Iran is
increasing its efforts through media attacks and small
incidents by non-Hizballah groups close to Syria. He said
that Hizballah is "digesting" the current situation, given
that they both won and lost the war, and also because they
fear what he referred to as a potential Sunni/Shia shock,
which might result in a loss of popularity for Hizballah.
Hamadeh said problems with Syria will never be solved while
Asad is in power. He said he also sees increased attempts to
draw Iran into Lebanon, citing a proposed MOU, from Hizballah
Minister of Energy, to give Iran preference in a study of the
Zuq power station, which could result in a four-country
(Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon) energy stream. He said that
this would be stopped in the Council of Ministers.

SOME OPTIMISM
--------------


9. (C) Despite the challenges, Hamadeh expressed optimism
regarding the Siniora government's ability to withstand the
challenges in the future. He said that, although Hizballah
may have imported some light weapons since the war, the
number of rockets Hizballah claims to hold are exaggerated.
He said that he does not expect to see a resumption of
hostilities.

MURRAY