MGLE01: INDEPENDENT SHIA POLITICIANS SAY AOUNIST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000336

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NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2016
TAGS: IR KISL LE PGOV PTER
SUBJECT: MGLE01: INDEPENDENT SHIA POLITICIANS SAY AOUNIST
MINISTERS PREFERABLE TO HAVING HIZBALLAH IN THE CABINET

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d)
.

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Three independent Shia politicians from
predominantly Shia areas of Lebanon separately told econoff
in early February that Hizballah's role in the cabinet will
only be disruptive. They said that Hizballah is seeking veto
power and is unlikely to compromise on its arms. Ali
Hamadeh, of the Biqa Valley, said that Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora made a mistake by inviting Hizballah into his cabinet
in the first place. He should have allied with MP Michel
Aoun against Hizballah. According to Hamadeh, Hizballah's
support is strong due to high confessional tensions.
Hizballah's links to Iran do not appear to be a political
liability, according to Hamadeh. Ahmad el-Assaad of southern
Lebanon and Salah Harake of south Beirut each expect
Hizballah to play a negative role in the cabinet and said
that Siniora's best option is to remove ministers nominated
by Amal-Hizballah and replace them by bringing Aoun into the
government. End summary.

HAMADEH: HIZBALLAH POPULAR SUPPORT
HIGH, ARMS COMPROMISE UNLIKELY
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2. (C) On February 1, econoff met with Ali Hamadeh, a son
of a former Speaker of Parliament, who unsuccessfully ran
against the Amal-Hizballah alliance in the 2005 parliamentary
elections. Hamadeh, a Shia from the Biqa Valley, was
pessimistic about the prospects for pressuring Hizballah to
disarm. He thought that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora had
made a mistake by inviting Hizballah to join his cabinet in
the first place. Siniora, in Hamadeh's opinion, should have
brought MP Michel Aoun into his cabinet instead and then
presented a united front against Hizballah. Now Siniora is
in a dilemma. If Siniora allows Hizballah to leave the
government, no Shia politician would dare fill the cabinet
posts they left. Any Shia entering a Siniora government
without the approval of the Amal-Hizballah alliance would be
seen as a "Brutus," according to Hamadeh. On the other hand,
if Siniora keeps Hizballah in his government, Hizballah will
feel empowered to refuse to compromise on its arms.


3. (C) Hamadeh explained that confessional tensions,
particularly between Sunni and Shia, since the assassination
of Rafiq Hariri, have caused most of the Lebanese Shia to
rally around Hizballah. He estimated that Hizballah now
enjoyed the support of more than two-thirds of the Shia
community. Hamadeh dismissed Amal as the tail of Hizballah.
Hizballah has even parlayed Sunni-Shia tension into political
cover for its actions. The new rumor gaining credence in the
Biqa Valley, according to Hamadeh, is that the USG is
intentionally provoking Sunni-Shia tensions in Iraq and
Lebanon so that the Sunni terrorists and the Shia terrorists
would kill each other off.


4. (C) Hamadeh did not expect Hizballah to compromise on
its arms in the coming year. Hizballah's popularity,
Siniora's timidity, and a lack of incentives weigh against
Hizballah disarmament in the short term. Hamadeh did not see
anything that Siniora could offer Hizballah in exchange for
disarmament. In contrast, Hizballah risks serious
disadvantages in disarming, such as loss of prestige,
reduction in Iranian funding, and a claimed lack of defense
against other confessional groups. Hamadeh saw Speaker of
Parliament Nabih Berri's recent call for a dialogue as an
attempt by Hizballah to shut down talk of disarmament. The
dialogue would likely fail, in part due to the actions of
Berri and Hizballah. This failure of dialogue would then
discourage further discussion of the issue, without the blame
falling on Hizballah.

IRANIAN LINKS NOT A LIABILITY
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5. (C) According to Hamadeh, the issue of Iran's nuclear
research program has had a counter-intuitive effect on Shia
support for Hizballah. Instead of feeling like pawns set up
to defend Iran's nuclear ambitions, most Shia support the
alleged Iranian attempts to build a nuclear weapon. The
feeling in the Shia community, according to Hamadeh, is that
if Iran produces a nuclear bomb, then Shia in Lebanon will be
safe under the Iranian nuclear umbrella. Few in the Shia
community seem concerned that a conflict over Iranian nuclear

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ambitions could spill over into Lebanon, according to
Hamadeh. Hizballah does not hide the fact that it receives a
great deal of funding from Iran because this funding is not a
political liability. Lebanese Shia benefit materially from
Iranian financing of Hizballah and do not seem to acknowledge
the irony of railing against US/Western influence but not
against Iranian influence. (Comment: Hamadeh best
summarized Shia sentiment towards Iran in a comment to us
last year, saying "the Shia are not allergic to Iran." End
comment.)


6. (C) Hamadeh then explored another angle to Hizballah's
links to Iran and to the party's political actions in the
last few months. He explained that the vast majority of the
Shia community appears to be behind any decision Hizballah
Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah takes, even if it is

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dangerous to the Shia community, defies logic, or appears to
be made in Tehran and Damascus. The cult of personality
around Nasrallah has grown so fervent that Hamadeh believes
Nasrallah could misstep or overreach, and the majority of the
Shia community would still follow. As a specific example,
Hamadeh cited Hizballah's close ties to Palestinian militant
groups. The Palestinians in Lebanon are an unpopular group
(given their role in the civil war and status as refugees),
but there is no criticism in the Shia community for
Nasrallah's support for their cause and their rights.

INDEPENDENT SHIA SAY HIZBALLAH
WILL ONLY DISRUPT CABINET
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7. (C) In separate meetings on February 2, independent Shia
politician Ahmad el-Assaad from south Lebanon and former Shia
MP Salah Harake from south Beirut each told econoff that
Hizballah's support in the Shia community is strong and
getting stronger with the confessional tensions. El-Assaad
estimated the Amal-Hizballah alliance would garner about 70
percent of the Shia vote if elections were held now, while
Harake thought the percentage for Amal-Hizballah would be
closer to 90 percent. Amal has become largely irrelevant as
it has been subsumed by Hizballah, according to el-Assaad and
Harake.


8. (C) Both el-Assaad and Harake said that the best
solution for Siniora is to entice Aoun into the cabinet and
to replace the Shia ministers nominated by the Amal-Hizballah
alliance. El-Assaad hinted that he would be willing to take
over a Shia cabinet seat vacated by a Hizballah-nominated
minister. He claimed his name had been raised during the
height of the Shia cabinet boycott. For his part, Harake
said that he had discussed the cabinet boycott with Hizballah
officials and had come to the conclusion that Hizballah will
not play a constructive role in government. Hizballah
officials told him that their goal is to exercise full veto
power over any cabinet decision. It would be best to remove
Hizballah from the government as it will only be disruptive
to Siniora's efforts, concluded Harake.

COMMENT
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9. (C) It should be noted that the three Shia politicians
interviewed by econoff do not, by their own admission,
represent the majority of Shia in Lebanon. They are too
moderate and secular. Ahmad el-Assaad's willingness to risk
being labeled a "Brutus" is admirable, but a cabinet
appointment may also be his only avenue to political power.
However, they are plugged into the Shi community, and the
fact that they have separatey come to the conclusion that
Hizballah will use ts cabinet access to disrupt progress and
dialoge bodes ill for cabinet unity. We also note that the
suggestion that Siniora drop Hizballah in favor of Aoun's
participation in the cabinet was tabled before Michel Aoun's
2/6 meeting and press conference with Hizballah Secretary
General Hassan Nasrallah. End comment.
FELTMAN