Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BEIRUT335
2006-02-06 16:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

MGLE01: RADICAL SUNNIS CONTROL OF BEIRUT VIOLENCE

Tags:  IS KPAL LE PGOV PREL PTER SY 
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ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 061649Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1844
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000335 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2016
TAGS: IS KPAL LE PGOV PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: MGLE01: RADICAL SUNNIS CONTROL OF BEIRUT VIOLENCE
REVEALS SERIOUS WEAKNESS IN SINIORA/HARIRI GOVERNMENT


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000335

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2016
TAGS: IS KPAL LE PGOV PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: MGLE01: RADICAL SUNNIS CONTROL OF BEIRUT VIOLENCE
REVEALS SERIOUS WEAKNESS IN SINIORA/HARIRI GOVERNMENT


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) The February 5 violent protests by Sunni radicals in
Beirut exposed two serious faultlines in Lebanon's effort to
transition to democracy: first, the Siniora government was
unable -- or unwilling -- to prevent Sunni radicals from
hijacking the demonstration and causing material damage and
numerous casualties; and second, the renewal of fear in the
Christian community that they may be the odd ones out in the
new Lebanon. Ostensibly directed against the much-discussed
Danish cartoons of the prophet Mohammad, the timing of the
violence in Beirut, one day after a mirror-like demonstration
in Damascus, and the number of alleged Syrian and Palestinian
protesters among those arrested by Lebanese authorities,
strongly indicates a Syrian connection. Prime Minister
Siniora and Saad Hariri's hastily issued statements of
apology notwithstanding, yesterday's events, unless strong
corrective action is taken, could result in a split in the
pro-reform March 14 Coalition between its two most critical
components, Saad Hariri's Future bloc, and its numerous
supporters in the Christian community. End summary.

SEQUENCE OF EVENTS
--------------


2. (C) At approximately 1100 hrs. local on February 5,
several thousand Sunni protesters converged on downtown
Beirut in the area of the office building which houses the
Danish mission. The protesters arrived largely by bus that
morning from Tripoli in the north, Sidon in the south, and a
smaller number from Sunni towns in the Biqa Valley.
Initially, police forces, who appeared prepared for a much
smaller protest, cordoned off the area surrounding the Danish
mission, but as the numbers grew to approximately 3,000 and
became increasingly violent, the police backed off after
unsuccessfully employing tear gas and water cannon. This
move, in the face of a resolute crowd, may have prevented

loss of life and a more serious outcome. The crowd,
comprised almost exclusively of young men and shepherded by
Sunni clerics, then forced its way to the site and quickly
ransacked and set ablaze several floors of the eight-story
structure. More heavily armed and better disciplined
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and Internal Security Forces
personnel arrived on the scene at approximately 1230 hrs. and
slowly established control of the situation. By 1330 hrs.,
firefighters were containing the blaze and the crowd was
dispersing and boarding buses for the return journey to their
respective towns. Late morning on February 6, emboff
observed several torched and vandalized cars in the area of
the unrest, as well as the extensively damaged building
itself. Damage in the surrounding area was less than
anticipated, but did include broken shop windows, which were
already being repaired. Reliable sources reported that two
Christian churches, St. Maroun Maronite Church and Mar Mitr
Greek Orthodox Church, located in the immediate area of the
Danish mission, also sustained damage when groups apparently
splintered off from the main demonstration and stoned the
churches. These were the incidents that generated
considerable concern in the Christian community. There was a
peaceful counter-demonstration of roughly 500 persons the
evening of February 5 at St. Maroun Church and another is
scheduled for the afternoon of February 6. There is
currently a higher-than-normal ISF in the area.

DAMAGE TO SINIORA AND HARIRI
--------------


3. (C) The clear failure to contain the anticipated
demonstration and protect a vulnerable diplomatic mission
reflects poorly on the Siniora government, which had just
emerged from an extended battle of wills with an increasingly
confident and aggressive Hizballah. Prior to this incident,
only Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun was
sharply criticizing the Siniora government for security
lapses. The destructive events of February 5 have changed
that. Farid el-Khazen, a respected MP from the Aounist bloc,
told poloff that the days of moderate criticism were over.
The FPM would now call for the resignation of the entire
government, not simply the inept and "politically
compromised" Minister of the Interior, who has just offered
his resignation. MP Khazen, usually reserved, asked how much
more evidence of incompetence was required. He reiterated
the lengthy list of unresolved crimes of political violence
and indicated yesterday's events was the final straw. Khazen

BEIRUT 00000335 002 OF 003


argued that the Siniora government has appeased Hizballah by
de-emphasizing UNSCR 1559 and allowed pro-Syrian President
Emile Lahoud to subvert reform through the placement of his
three ministers in the cabinet. Khazen stressed that the
Aounists, who captured 70 percent of the Christian vote in
last spring's parliamentary elections, were the only
significant representatives of the electorate kept out of the
government. He argued that the Sunnis desire all the power
and would only work with those representatives of the
Christian community who bowed to their dictates. Maronite MP
Robert Ghanem, a moderate member of Hariri's bloc, was far
less sure that irreparable damage had been done. On February
6, he informed poloff that the riot was indeed a serious blow
to the Siniora government, and to Hariri's reputation as a
trustworthy cross-confessional leader, but the situation was
not beyond repair. He said he would urge the government to
act quickly and resolutely on the complete range of security
issues: the reorganization and streamlining of the security
services (with an emphasis on shunting aside still-numerous
Syrian sympathizers),thoroughly securing Lebanon's borders,
quickly addressing the issue of Palestinian arms outside the
refugee camps, and opening the security services to members
of all the country's sectarian communities. But even Ghanem
admitted that time was running short and events like
yesterday had accelerated the clock.

RUMORS -- UNFOUNDED OR NOT
--------------


4. (C) Follwoing the Feruary 5 riots, the morning after has
not been pleasant. The rumor heard with the most frequency,
and possibly the most dangerous to the government and the
coalition, is that Saad Hariri's Future Movement was possibly
the unwitting enabler of the violence. According to this
widely-discussed theory, the dozens of buses used to
transport the protesters were organized and funded by Saad
Hariri's Future Movement, possibly under the naive belief
that such support would enhance Hariri's Lebanese Sunni
credentials, which have suffered due to his prolonged absence
from the country. Several interlocutors mentioned Hariri's
sheepish apology and call for restraint televised from Paris
and noted it was not his best performance. PM Siniora was
given higher grades for his energetic round of consultations
with Christian clerical and secular leaders, but it also was
largely viewed as damage control. If evidence surfaces that
Hariri did finance (and then fail to control) a demonstration
that possibly targeted Christian interests, the damage could
be difficult to repair.


5. (C) With perfect hindsight, it has also been noted that
the February 4 violence in Damascus was the spark that lit a
previously quiescent fundamentalist element in Lebanon. The
large number of angry bearded fundamentalists brandishing
copies of the Koran and armed with crowbars and bolt cutters
in downtown Beirut was not a sight that many welcomed in the
country's other sectarian communities. A question posed by
former MP Salah Honein, a Maronite who is allied with Walid
Jumblatt, was whether Hariri had inadvertently roused a
religious segment best left at peace. Honein also wondered
if the still-present Syrian intelligence operatives had
somehow managed to gain influence with this combustible force
without the knowledge of Hariri and other moderate Sunni
leaders.


6. (C) Although the arrest figures are subject to
independent verification, it is surprising to see that 40
percent (77 persons) of the 192 persons taken into custody
are listed by the authorities are Syrian, with another 42
persons listed as Palestinian. A reporter for An-Nahar
newspaper who was at the scene, Abbas Sabbagh, told us that
the great majority of the protesters were clearly Lebanese.
If the numbers are reliable, the discrepancy between the
relatively low percentage of protesters who were
Syrian/Palestinian and the high percentage arrested as the
most violent participants points to an effective penetration
of the event by outsiders.

DAMAGE TO THE COALITION
--------------


7. Probably the most serious repercussion from yesterday's
violence is the damage it may have caused to the critical
Sunni-Christian partnership in the March 14 Coalition.
Perhaps it was simply a small minority of outside agitators
or fringe fundamentalists that caused damage to the two
Christian churches -- and therefore could be dismissed -- but
the fact that the Sunni-led government thoroughly mismanaged

BEIRUT 00000335 003 OF 003


the confrontation gave rise to the openly voiced concern that
Siniora and his government can no longer be trusted to
protect the welfare and safety of all the elements of
Lebanon's society.


8. As this cable is being drafted, Michel Aoun is on
Lebanese television entering an unprecedented meeting with
the leader of Hizballah, Hassan Nasrallah. One can easily
surmise these unlikely figures will now attempt to present
themselves as the protectors of the Lebanese people.
Apparently, the events of February 5 are going to produce
several large aftershocks in Lebanon's political landscape.
FELTMAN