LEBANON: SUNNI MP DESCRIBES SYRIAN MACHINATIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003200

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/SINGH
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SUNNI MP DESCRIBES SYRIAN MACHINATIONS,
HIZBALLAH STRENGTHS

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) An Sunni politician from Tripoli shared with DCM his
observations of Syrian inroads into the Sunni community in
Tripoli, views of the Prime Minister's performance and
political strength during the reconstruction period, and an
evaluation of Hizballah's current position. He also shared
word of President Lahoud's abuse of public funds at the UNGA.
End Summary.


2. (C) Mosbah Ahdab, a March 14 affiliated Sunni MP from
Tripoli and member of former MP Nassib Lahoud's Democratic
Renewal Movement, who just returned from a program of visits
to policymakers in Washington, visited DCM and polchief on
September 29. He recounted the warm reception he had
received in Washington, including a spontaneous invitation to
be present on the Senate floor during a vote. He noted to us
that while Lebanon has formal parliament-to-parliament
relationships with most major countries, it has none with the
United States. (Comment: Given the reluctance of Speaker
Berri or even individual Lebanese MPs to participate, in the
current political climate, in programs we have proposed with
the U.S. Congress, this may not be the time to explore this
possibility. However, at a more propitious time such a
program could be helpful in developing Lebanon's political
leaders and parties, and fostering greater trust of the USG.
End Comment.)

SYRIA ATTEMPTS TO BREAK SUNNI
LEADERS AWAY FROM MARCH 14
--------------


3. (C) Ahdab described for us some features of an apparent
Syrian strategy to influence Sunni politicians and religious
leaders in his native city of Tripoli. Former PM Najib
Mikati is paying a supplementary salary to sheikhs in
Tripoli, in addition to the salary they receive locally which
is usually insufficient to support a family. Sunni Public
Works and Transport Minister Mohammad Safadi, also from
Tripoli, has apparently strengthened his ties to Damascus.
According to Ahdab, Safadi was seen crossing Lebanon's
northern border to Syria to use his private aircraft parked
at the airport at the Syrian port of Latakia, suggesting that
he has influential friends in Damascus.


4. (C) Safadi wants to be Prime Minister, Ahdab maintained,
but has not practiced the largesse in his public spending
that he would need to in order to have a successful
candidacy. He has been moving close to March 8 figure Michel
Aoun and getting involved with Syrian ally Suleiman Franjieh.
Nonetheless, he is "not too clever" according to Ahdab, and
Syria's true candidate for the Prime Ministership is probably
Mikati.

SINIORA AND RECONSTRUCTION
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5. (C) Ahdab had a mixed assessment of the Prime Minister's
performance and effectiveness in the post-crisis period.
Echoing what many of the PM's friends and backers have told
us, Siniora is doing a great job of managing those economic
and reconstruction issues he has taken on but has not built a
real team or utilized the talents of his ministers. The PM
and his advisors also need to review their proposed economic
reform and recovery plans to ensure that they address the
concerns of the poor, and also make sure that the
international financial institutions and other donors do the
same.


6. (C) Compounding this problem for the PM is that he has no
real media or communications cell in his office. While he
and his team may be accomplishing progress, there is no
strategy to get the word out to the public, which may become
increasingly skeptical.

HIZBALLAH
--------------


7. (C) On the subject of reconstruction, Ahdab said that if
the GOL does not take effective action soon to take the
limelight from Hizballah, then Hizballah will become even
stronger. Effective reconstruction programs are a start.

BEIRUT 00003200 002 OF 002


Many observers are betting on Parliament Speaker Berri as an
alternative Shia leader to Hassan Nasrallah, but this is a
mistake, Ahdab said. Berri's popularity is tainted by his
association with corruption, and his followers are the same
as Nasrallah's. Berri will not force them to choose for fear
that he will come out the loser. On the security front,
Hizballah's rearmament will have to be countered by a program
to pay witnesses and informants for information leading to
weapons confiscation.

BAD BEHAVIOR AT UNGA
--------------


8. (C) According to Ahdab, President Emile Lahoud spent
excessive public funds as head of the Lebanese delegation at
UNGA in New York. Ahdab's sources told him that in one
example, Lahoud hosted a dinner at a cost of over $400,000,
featuring French singer Charles Aznavour. We have yet to see
press reporting indicating that this or any other story of
the Lebanese delegation's alleged profligacy has become
public.
FELTMAN