LEBANON: DRUZE ELECTION STRENGTHENS JUMBLATT BUT

UNCLAS E F T O SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003177

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/SINGH
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM LE PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: LEBANON: DRUZE ELECTION STRENGTHENS JUMBLATT BUT
STIRS DISCORD

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU/NF) The first-ever election for the Druze Doctrinal
Council
was conducted on September 24. The election produced an
important
victory for Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, both in cementing his
control over the Council and in putting his followers in
charge of
the $800 million Druze Endowment, and a loss for Syria and its
allies among the Druze. The election was also a victory for
March
14 forces, who had passed the law calling for Council
elections,
over President Lahoud's objection, in order to break the lock
that
Syrian-allied Druze had held on the Council for many years.
The new
Council will form a Board which will appoint the new Shaykh
al-Aql,
the paramount Druze religious leader. In reaction to Sunday's
election, pro-Syrian Druze leader Arsalan appointed his own
Shaykh
al-Aql, whom President Lahoud promptly received at the
presidential
palace. Tensions are high among the Druze, but for the
moment the
two sides of the dispute seem determined to pursue a solution
in the
courts. End Summary.

UNPRECEDENTED ELECTIONS
--------------


2. (SBU) The March 8/March 14 divide in Lebanon's political
line-up
played itself out in the Druze community last weekend when
the Druze
Electoral College elected board members to the Druze Doctrinal
Council for the first time in its history. The members, who
had in
the past been appointed by Druze clergy, will elect the next
"Shaykh
al Aql," the paramount Druze religious leader. The election,
which
took place under a law passed by March 14 MPs along with the
tacit
consent of Speaker Nabih Berri, represents a political
victory for
Walid Jumblatt. It was also a defeat for President Lahoud,
who had
declined to approve the election law when it was first
presented in
December 2005; the law was passed by a super-majority in June

2006.
At stake is control of the lucrative Druze Endowment, whose
USD 800
million in assets are managed by the Druze Doctrinal Council.

REINFORCES JUMBLATT BUT DIVIDES DRUZE COMMUNITY
-------------- --


3. (SBU) Should Jumblatt's allies on the Council secure
control of
the Endowment, Jumblatt's position as Druze political leader
may be
unassailable for the foreseeable future. However, the
controversy
over control of the Council and the Endowment has the
potential to
divide the Druze community. Pro-Syrian political leader Talal
Arsalan reacted to the Council election by appointing his own
Shaykh
al-Aql, Nasr al-Deen Ghareeb. President Lahoud on Tuesday
exploited
this division by inviting Ghareeb to Baabda Palace.


4. (SBU/NF) In a September 26 telephone conversation with Pol

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staff,
Arsalan said that the political divisions within the Druze
community
are worsening and could "get out of control" when the new
Council
starts taking control over the Endowment. He said "the
Endowment is
estimated at approximately $800 million and with some
development
projects it could reach well above $1 billion." Taking a
firm stand
against Jumblatt, Arsalan added "Jumblatt wants to control the
Endowment for his own political gains and we shall not allow
this to
happen because it is against the Druze faith and traditions."

JUMBLATT ALLIES ACCUSE SYRIA OF INTERFERENCE
--------------


5. (SBU/NF) Jumblatt-allied MPs Wael Abu and Akram Shuhayyeb
told us
September 26 that Arsalan's nomination of Shaykh Ghareeb is
illegal
and reflects a Syrian push to cause division within the Druze
community. The Council, once it elects a new Shaykh al-Aql,
will
take legal measures against Ghareeb; he will most likely face
charges of usurping power. For the time being, both sides of
the
dispute seemed determined to resolve the issue in the courts.
FELTMAN