LEBANON: AOUN USES CONFERENCE ON THE DISPLACED TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 003176

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/SINGH
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2016
TAGS: LE PGOV PREF PREL
SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN USES CONFERENCE ON THE DISPLACED TO
SMEAR RIVALS, ENERGIZE BASE

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: Section 1.4 (d
).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) A September 30 conference on Lebanon's long-displaced
Chouf Christians highlighted corruption and failure in the
management of the Ministry of the Displaced. But its more
important goal was to provide a stage for Free Patriotic
Movement leader Michel Aoun. Aoun took advantage of the
platform to energize his Christian base, smear political
rivals with charges of corruption, and stimulate more of the
anti-Sunni sentiment that has been creeping into political
discourse in the last few weeks. Aoun's rivals hit back even
before the event, promising action on the displaced and
accusing Aoun of inciting confessional strife. End Summary.


2. (U) On September 30 General Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic
Movement (FPM) held a conference entitled "Right of Return."
The conference's nominal purpose was to address the issue of
displaced Lebanese Christians from the Chouf who fled Druze
reprisals following the 1977 assassination of Kamal Jumblatt.


3. (C) In conversations with polchief, FPM officials
maintained that preparations for the conference were years in
the making, and that the conference itself had been scheduled
a month earlier. However, there was no announcement of the
conference until the previous weekend, when Samir Ja'ja gave
an influential address to a pro-March 14 crowd in Harissa,
itself an answer to September 22's massive Hizballah rally.


4. (SBU) According to a readout from our FPM contacts, 84,000
Christians fled their homes in 1977 and only 17 percent of
them have returned since then. Meanwhile, the FPM alleges,
the Ministry of the Displaced has spent at least USD 1.6
billion to achieve this meager result. (omment: These
expenditures are according to the official records, our
contacts say; unofficial expenditures may be higher. End
Comment.) The Ministry of the Dispalced is a Druze
stronghold, and for most of its existenceQt has been under
the control of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt.

THE SPEECH
--------------


5. (C) A principal motivation for the conference was the
FPM's interest in smearing Jumblatt, a key member of the 14
March political movement. Aoun called for a special tribunal
(though not an international one) to investigate the Ministry
of the Displaced's finances. (Note: the FPM and Hizballah
have recently adopted an anti-corruption focus on which to
criticize their 14 March rivals, and the financial record of
this Ministry is a strong issue for the FPM. End Note.)
Aoun gave some examples of alleged corruption, including a
village in which Druze inhabitants were compensated for
"giving up" 144 houses which were shown to have been
fictitious.


6. (SBU) Aoun sharpened his focus on Jumblatt, saying that
instead of apologizing for his previous ties to Syria,
Jumblatt should apologize for the massacres of Christians
during the Civil War. The demand for an apology was the
latest in a series of verbal jabs -- following on a reference
to Hizballah's demand that Jumblatt apologize for calling its
followers "mindless," and Jumblatt's riposte that he had
nothing to be sorry for other than his long alignment with
Damascus.


7. (C) Aoun also was clearly interested in shoring up his
Christian support, which may indicate some anxiety on the
FPM's part about its loss of popularity among Christians.
(Note: FPM leaders Ibrahim Kanaan and Gebran Bassil have
admitted to polchief that the party has lost popularity, but
insist that they are unrivalled among Lebanon's Christians
and that the popularity will return.) Aoun called for an
accounting of all Lebanese prisoners in Syria. Aoun may have
intended by this appeal to put himself behind a popular
Christian cause while disguising the cozy relationship he is
assumed to enjoy with Damascus.


8. (SBU) Touching on another popular Christian issue, Aoun

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called for the return of Lebanese refugees who fled to Israel
with the IDF withdrawal in 2000. Those refugees mainly fled
from fear of Hizballah reprisals, and Aoun claimed that he
had been working with Hizballah to ensure a smooth and safe
return for them. (One Hizballah delegate to the conference,
Ali Ammar, could be seen to smile in approval when Aoun
touched on this topic.) All these refugees, or at least the
men, would be expected to face charges under Lebanese law for
"visiting" Israel, however. Aoun claimed that talks on
reducing or waiving these charges had broken down due to the
intransigence of March 14 forces.


9. (SBU) Further stoking the anti-Sunni heat, Aoun cited the
case of Sultan Abu al-Einein, the Fatha commander in Lebanon,
who had been under the death penalty in Lebanon for making
threats against the Defense Ministry prior to 2005, and who
was quickly exonerated at the instigation of March 14 leaders
when the Syrians left. Aoun implied that Christians who fled
to Israel should be exonerated too. To heighten suspicions
that the Sunni Lebanese leadership seeks to strengthen
Lebanon's Palestinian refugees for use against Shia and
Christians, Aoun also claimed that former PM Rafiq al-Hariri
had sought a deal with Arab countries to forgive Lebanon's
debt in exchange for Lebanese naturalization of the
Palestinians.


10. (SBU) In a slap against Christian rival Samir Ja'ja',
Aoun accused the GOL of marginalizing Christians and "pushing
Christians to call for federalism...to divide this country."
Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah had also called proposals
for a federal or "canton" solution unacceptable in his
September 22 speech.


11. (SBU) Aoun dismissed acting Interior Minister Ahmad
Fatfat as "illegal," demanding to know why PM Siniora had not
nominated a new Interior Minister after an alleged
three-month delay. Aoun's attack on Fatfat came after the
previous week's fray between Fatfat and the chief of the
Surete Generale, Hizballah supporter Wafic Jezzini.


12. (SBU) Finally, he announced a rally for October 15, in
commemoration of October 13, 1990 (when he was driven from
the Baabda Palace by the Syrians),which may be a way to
demonstrate independence from Damascus.

REACTIONS
--------------


13. (SBU) The response from the March 14 camp was pro-active,
even to the point of preempting Aoun. Siniora announced on
Thursday that he would revisit the issue of the displaced and
seek to energize efforts to resettle refugees. In a parallel
move rivalling the FPM conference, Walid Jumblatt held a
reconciliation ceremony at his headquarters in Mukhtara for
local Druze residents and Christians who had returned to the
area's village of Shahhar. Jumblatt and Minister of the
Displaced Tohme announced the availability of funds to
complete the return of refugees.


14. (SBU) After Aoun's speech, MP Saad Hariri called his
allegation about a deal for the resettlement of Palestinian
refugees a fabrication and a "racist incitement."
Communications Minister Marwan Hamadeh criticized Aoun's
speech as hampering the reconciliation between Christians and
Druze in the Chouf begun by Maronite Patriarch Sfeir in 2001.

COMMENT
--------------


15. (C) In calling for the conference one week after the
duelling rallies of Hizballah and the Lebanese Forces, Aoun
had two purposes; first, to add his voice to Hizballah's in
attacking and weakening 14 March in general and Jumblatt in
particular, as Jumblatt or his allies controlled the
corruption-riddled Fund for the Displaced during much of its
history. Aoun's second motivation may have been worries
about his base and a need to shore it up. His remarks on
Saturday were aimed at reviving Christian spirits as well as
defaming rivals; the appeals for an accounting of prisoners
in Syria and the return of Christians from Israel were
designed to warm hearts. It may happen, however, that only
by achieving results in these areas can Michel Aoun score a

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political victory and halt the political slide that the FPM
has seen in recent months. End Comment.
FELTMAN