LEBANON: HIZBALLAH RALLY STOKES POLITICAL FIRES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 003090

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2016
TAGS: PTER PREL KDEM LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HIZBALLAH RALLY STOKES POLITICAL FIRES
BACK TO A BLAZE

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4 (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah emerged from hiding and
made an appearance at a massive rally in Beirut's southern
suburbs on Friday (9/22),rejecting calls for his group to
disarm (except in the distant future) and claiming it had
more than 20,000 rockets. In his speech Nasrallah praised
what he called a "divine, historic and strategic victory"
over Israel and took a swipe at the majority March 14
alliance and the political heirs of slain ex-Premier Rafiq
Hariri. "The resistance is stronger today than on July 12,"
Nasrallah told hundreds of thousands of supporters.
Nasrallah's defiant remarks came two days before the annual
rally of the Lebanese Forces, a March 14 ally of Hariri's
Mustaqbal party, in which its leader Samir Ja'ja', addressing
his party for the first time since his 11-year imprisonment,
denounced Hizballah as a "statelet" and called for it to
disarm. After relative quiet on Friday and Saturday, March
14 figures also hit back at Nasrallah; PM Siniora asserted
that the Hizballah-led war resulted in the "re-occupation" of
Lebanon, and Druze leader Jumblatt accused the "resistance"
of adherence to Damascus. End Summary.

COMING OUT IN STYLE
--------------


2. (SBU) Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah emerged from more
than a month of hiding and spoke at a Hizballah "Divine
Victory" rally in south Beirut's Security Square on Friday
evening. Nasrallah's appearance, his first since the
July-August war, was seen as defiance of the Israeli threat
to kill him should the opportunity arise. He demonstrated
that he could muster and then control a crowd which, by some
estimates, reached over 400,000 people (which, while fewer
than Hizballah's target of a million, was around 10 percent
of Lebanon's population). A scattering of other-party
representatives in the sea of yellow flags, in particular
General Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM),may have
lent Hizballah some political cover. However, it is
noteworthy that Nasrallah did not mention Aoun or FPM
directly, which some have interpreted as a move to spare Aoun
any additional loss of supporters from his association with
Hizballah.

THE SPEECH
--------------


3. (SBU) Sweating and playing with his black turban,
Nasrallah appeared more defiant and confrontational than he
had in televised interviews during and since the war,
stressing that the victory and steadfastness of the
"resistance" had foiled the US plan for a New Middle East and
provided a model for liberation. Nasrallah put UNIFIL on
notice -- or depending on the interpretation, threatened
UNIFIL -- over what Hizballah has called an illegitimate
expansion of UNIFIL's mandate (i.e., disarmament in the south
and patrol of Lebanese waters). He also warned UNIFIL not to
"spy" on Hizballah, a possible reference to the UNIFIL
leadership's interpretation that under UNSCR 1701 it is
empowered to undertake investigations relating to arms
smuggling.


4. (SBU) On arms, Nasrallah claimed that Hizballah was
stronger than ever, with 20,000 missiles, and that the party
would not disarm until the reasons for the arms are removed
-- i.e., Israeli occupation of the Sheba'a Farms and holding
of Lebanese prisoners. Depending on the interpretation, he
may also have linked Hizballah's arms with the establishment
of a "clean" government free of corruption -- an apparent
reference to the Hizballah and FPM charge of corruption under
the leadership of the Hariris. Keeping to an anti-Sunni
theme, Nasrallah shamed Arab regimes which were slow to
express support for Hizballah during the war -- and who fail
to fight for Palestine (suggesting that, with the proper
action, Israel might disappear). He further criticized the
government and Prime Minister Siniora saying that the
"current government is capable of neither protecting Lebanon
nor rebuilding it." Addressing PM Siniora indirectly,

BEIRUT 00003090 002 OF 003


Nasrallah said "it is not with tears that we can protect
Lebanon" in reference to the PM's tears at the Arab Foreign
Ministers meeting in July in Beirut.


5. (SBU) On politics, Nasrallah repeated the Hizballah and
FPM demand for a "national unity government" likely entailing
an expansion of the cabinet to include additional ministers
from those two parties, and augmenting non-March 14
representation on the Cabinet. He also called for a new
electoral law to replace one left behind by the Syrians -- a
reform backed by Aounists/FPM which might give Christians
more political power, and strengthen Shiite power to an even
greater degree.

THE REACTION -- LEBANESE POLITICS TURNS UP THE VOLUME AGAIN
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) The immediate reactions of post's March 14 contacts
to Nasrallah's speech emphasized its relative mildness
compared to the fearful expectations of many. One contact in
the Prime Minister's office reacted with relief, and the lone
Maronite MP in the Mustaqbal party told polchief that the
speech was "mild." A short statement issued by PM Siniora,s
press office Saturday said Nasrallah,s focus &on the
dialogue in his speech is a good and constructive thing and
opens future horizons.8 Observers' initial reactions to the
speech may have been tinted with relief that the rally
remained peaceful and that there had been no apparent or
explicit threat to public order.


7. (C) As the weekend progressed Hizballah's opponents became
more vocal. Meeting with a White House-sponsored delegation
on Saturday afternoon, Siniora said that he was fighting for
progress in Lebanon and that Hizballah was trying to take the
country in a different direction. During a subsequent
televised interview, the PM said "even though we welcomed the
call for open dialogue, this does not mean we do not have
some comments regarding a number of issues." He noted that
as a result of the war the country was occupied once again
and emphasized that "we" -- March 14 -- are working to
liberate it. Siniora concurred with Nasrallah's objectives
of having a strong, capable, and clean government but said
"we have to help and work hard to establish such a
government."


8. (SBU) On Sunday, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt spoke out
against the "Divine Rally" on a Sunday meeting with his
Progressive Socialist Party's youth organization in Mukhtara.
Jumblatt said that his main disagreement with the resistance
is its adherence to the Syrian regime. He added "the strong,
just and capable state is the state of law, one law with the
weapons in the hands of the Lebanese army and the decision of
war and peace is that of the Lebanese state." Jumblatt
rejected Nasrallah's demand that he apologize for calling
Hizballah supporters "mindless" and said that if there was
anything he should apologize for, he should apologize to his
father -- murdered by the Syrians -- for remaining an ally of
Syria for years.


9. (SBU) Druze Communications Minister Marwan Hamadeh said
that he would have hoped that Nasrallah's speech was less
aggressive towards the Arabs and his Lebanese partners.
Hamadeh said "we heard attacks against the Arabs and
Americans more than we heard attacks against the Israelis."
Hamadeh added that he had understood from Nasrallah's speech
"he will not hand over the weapons except to a strong and
just state; he will not hand it over except to himself."
Hamadeh rejected Nasrallah's call to form a national unity
government saying "we will not allow Presidents Lahoud and
Assad to form a government once again."


10. (SBU) Former President Amin Gemayel echoed many of
Hamadeh's sentiments, saying that Nasrallah extended his hand
to various Lebanese parties but at the same time was
confrontational and made some dangerous statements. Gemayel
added "Nasrallah linked the disarmament of Hizballah to major
changes in the government; this is surprising and dangerous
and make us question what kind of government does Nasrallah
want?"

LEBANESE FORCES RALLY

BEIRUT 00003090 003 OF 003


UNEXPECTED NUMBER OF SUPPORTERS
--------------


11. (SBU) On 9/24, the annual Lebanese Forces rally for
Christian victims of the civil war, kicked off by a Maronite
mass at Harissa Cathedral, featured Samir Ja'ja' as speaker
for the first time since his 11-year imprisonment. Social
Affairs Minister Nayla Mouawad and several MPs, including at
least two Aounist MPs, attended. In a speech outside the
cathedral, Ja'ja' addressed a crowd numbering at least in the
tens of thousands and possibly more than 100,000. Ja'ja's
rally choked roads for miles around and provided the visual
counterpoint to Hizballah's Friday gathering.


12. (SBU) The Lebanese Forces leader attacked Hizballah for
refusing to disarm and for taking unilateral action resulting
in war. He accused Hizballah of maintaining a "statelet"
within Lebanon and of trying to undermine the Ta'if
Agreement, and tarred Nasrallah for taking pride in his ties
to Syria. Ja'ja' called upon Hizballah to become a
"political resistance" rather than an armed one. While
attendance at the important Maronite commemoration is a
can't-miss for any Maronite group, FPM officials went on the
attack against Ja'ja' immediately thereafter, claiming he has
no program (other than March 14's) and is out of touch with
Lebanon after his long imprisonment.

COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) In mid-September, it appeared that stability was
creeping into Lebanese politics. Flush with diplomatic
victories that had secured an end to the war, a strong UN
resolution calling for disarmament, and massive donor
support, there seemed little to quarrel with in the
performance of the Prime Minister and his government.
Hizballah, meanwhile, was stumbling to live up to its
promises of reconstruction aid, and Michel Aoun -- at least
to his detractors -- seemed to hemorrhage support on a daily
basis. For almost two weeks after the lifting of the
blockade, public recriminations seemed to fade and the
country seemed ready to get down to the sober business of
reconstruction against the backdrop of Ramadan. Perhaps it
was the realization of fading support, and the approach of
the holy month, which led Hizballah to choose last Friday for
an attention-grabbing rally. The reaction to the rally may
have deflated Hizballah's image for now, and it remains to be
seen whether the party's Ramadan activities -- likely
revolving around charity -- will suffice to enhance it again.
However the images of Hizballah's throngs will remained
etched in the memories of the public and the political class,
and may yet prey on the courage and resolve of the latter.
In short, Lebanon starts Ramadan deeply divided.
Rabble-rousing nightly iftar speeches are unlikely to
contribute to a national consensus about what comes next.
FELTMAN