Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BEIRUT3006
2006-09-15 15:28:00
SECRET
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:
IS MICHEL AOUN PLAYING WITH PRISONER EXCHANGES?
VZCZCXRO4658 OO RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK DE RUEHLB #3006/01 2581528 ZNY SSSSS ZZH O 151528Z SEP 06 FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5628 INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0290
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003006
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2026
TAGS: PREL PTER LE IS
SUBJECT: IS MICHEL AOUN PLAYING WITH PRISONER EXCHANGES?
Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).
SUMMARY
-------
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003006
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2026
TAGS: PREL PTER LE IS
SUBJECT: IS MICHEL AOUN PLAYING WITH PRISONER EXCHANGES?
Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (S) In a 9/15 meeting with the Ambassador, an agitated
Ghattas Khoury -- conveying information on behalf of Saad
Hariri -- claimed that Michel Aoun's sudden and mysterious
trip to Belgium was part of a prisoner exchange scheme that
would destroy the Siniora government's credibility in the
process. Hinting at a mole inside the Aoun camp, Khoury
reported that Aoun has Hizballah's promise to release the
Israeli captives if Aoun can secure the release of Samir
Kantar and other Lebanese detained by Israel. The
intermediary between Aoun and the Israelis is a Belgium-based
Lebanese priest named Jean Ibrahim Abboud who once lived in
Israel. Huge rallies will greet Kantar's return to Lebanon,
with Aoun seen as the hero and the Siniora government as
unable to secure Lebanese rights. The Aoun-Hizballah camp is
counting on the weakness of Israeli Prime Minister Olmert,
who they believe sees a return of the Israeli captives as his
political salvation, in overcoming any Israeli reluctance to
deal with Aoun (and Hizballah). Aware that Lebanese often
share wild conspiracy theories, Khoury shared a flight
manifest and other documents in hopes of bolstering Hariri's
argument that this prisoner exchange gambit is serious rather
than an overwrought Lebanese conspiracy fantasy, and a
serious danger to the Siniora cabinet. End summary.
AOUN ON BELGIAN MILITARY FLIGHT
--------------
2. (S) Khoury asked the Ambassador what the USG knew about
Aoun's sudden disappearance from Lebanon. The Ambassador
noted that he had a meeting set with Aoun for earlier that
day that was cancelled by Aoun's staff, citing the General's
unscheduled absence from Lebanon. Khoury shared a flight
manifest, obtained from "our contacts at the airport," that
showed Aoun and two advisors (the ubiquitous Gebran Bassil
and Elie Cheddid) on a CE-10 Belgium Air Force flight 695
from Beirut to Brussels (refueling in Athens) on 9/13.
Khoury shook his head when the Ambassador asked whether Aoun
might be having some kind of official consultations with the
Belgians or with the EU.
HIZBALLAH AUTHORIZED AOUN
ON TRADING SOLDIERS FOR KANTAR
--------------
3. (S) Hinting at the Hariris having a mole in the Aoun
camp, Khoury said that Aoun was off to meet with Israeli
officials either in Brussels or perhaps even in Israel.
Hizballah, Khoury reported, had offered Aoun a deal: Aoun
can turn over the two Israeli soldiers captured by Hizballah
on July 12 (the incident that sparked the recent conflict),
if he can convince the Israelis to release Samir Kantar
(imprisoned in Israel for murder since 1978) and other
Lebanese detainees, which Khoury presumed meant those seized
by Israel during the recent conflict. With Hizballah's
promise in his pocket, Aoun is off to see what he can do.
Hizballah and Aoun believe that Olmert is so weak that he
wants the Israeli captives released at any price, even at the
expense of possibly strengthening Aoun and Hizballah.
HUGE RALLIES TO WELCOME KANTAR,
PROCLAIM AOUN AS A HERO
--------------
4. (S) Aoun would either travel with Kantar back to Lebanon
or be on hand to receive him when he is released. Enormous
Hizballah-orchestrated rallies would welcome Kantar and play
up Aoun as the hero of the prisoner exchange. By contrast,
Siniora and his cabinet will look weak and ineffective,
unable to protect Lebanese interests and incapable of
securing Kantar's release. "People will ask," Khoury said,
"'where are your American friends? What good are they?'"
The exchange will become part of the Aoun-Hizballah effort to
topple the government.
5. (S) The intermediary between Aoun and the Israelis,
according to Khoury, is a Catholic priest of Lebanese origin
named Jean Ibrahim Abboud, formerly the Latin Archibishop of
Tripoli. Abboud reportedly lived in Israel from 1976 to 1980
and still maintains close ties there. According to Lebanese
immigration information, Abboud last entered Lebanon via
Belgium military transport on September 2 and stayed for
three days. He also visited Lebanon from July 29 to August
BEIRUT 00003006 002 OF 002
4, transiting Syria. Abboud's brother Colonel Youssef Abboud
is, according to Khoury, the LAF officer in charge of Michel
Aoun's LAF-provided security detail.
6. (S) Khoury, who accepted Hariri's tale of intrigue
fully, expressed deep alarm about this development. He
expressed hope that the USG would be able to persuade Israel
not to take steps that would lead to a strengthening of
Michel Aoun and Hizballah, which he argued would be against
Israel's long-term interests in Lebanon.
COMMENT
--------------
7. (S) Aoun's mysterious trip to Belgium by military
aircraft has provoked enormous speculation in Lebanon
(especially in the absence of the Belgium Ambassador),and
conspiracy theorists working overtime might have developed
the scenario above. We note that Aoun's people have called
to reschedule the Ambassador's meeting with Aoun for 9/15,
suggesting that Aoun (a) will be back in Lebanon soon and (b)
is not yet booked solid with massive public rallies filled
with enthusiastic throngs welcoming back Samir Kantar and
proclaiming Aoun a hero. So, at most, it seems that Aoun's
Belgian excursion, if it was linked to prisoner exchanges as
Khoury (speaking for Hariri) insisted, was at best an
exploratory mission.
8. (S) Both Israel and Lebanon have, we understand,
accepted the UN as the sole mediator on the prisoner issue.
Presumably, both will stick to that formula. We wonder
whether the UN is amenable to a message that its mediation
efforts should reinforce the GOL and not strengthen those
trying to destroy the Lebanese cabinet. The Ambassador will
explore this issue with UNSYG Annan's Personal Representative
for Lebanon Geir Pedersen, and we will also quiz Aoun when we
see him on Saturday about his Belgian trip.
FELTMAN
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2026
TAGS: PREL PTER LE IS
SUBJECT: IS MICHEL AOUN PLAYING WITH PRISONER EXCHANGES?
Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (S) In a 9/15 meeting with the Ambassador, an agitated
Ghattas Khoury -- conveying information on behalf of Saad
Hariri -- claimed that Michel Aoun's sudden and mysterious
trip to Belgium was part of a prisoner exchange scheme that
would destroy the Siniora government's credibility in the
process. Hinting at a mole inside the Aoun camp, Khoury
reported that Aoun has Hizballah's promise to release the
Israeli captives if Aoun can secure the release of Samir
Kantar and other Lebanese detained by Israel. The
intermediary between Aoun and the Israelis is a Belgium-based
Lebanese priest named Jean Ibrahim Abboud who once lived in
Israel. Huge rallies will greet Kantar's return to Lebanon,
with Aoun seen as the hero and the Siniora government as
unable to secure Lebanese rights. The Aoun-Hizballah camp is
counting on the weakness of Israeli Prime Minister Olmert,
who they believe sees a return of the Israeli captives as his
political salvation, in overcoming any Israeli reluctance to
deal with Aoun (and Hizballah). Aware that Lebanese often
share wild conspiracy theories, Khoury shared a flight
manifest and other documents in hopes of bolstering Hariri's
argument that this prisoner exchange gambit is serious rather
than an overwrought Lebanese conspiracy fantasy, and a
serious danger to the Siniora cabinet. End summary.
AOUN ON BELGIAN MILITARY FLIGHT
--------------
2. (S) Khoury asked the Ambassador what the USG knew about
Aoun's sudden disappearance from Lebanon. The Ambassador
noted that he had a meeting set with Aoun for earlier that
day that was cancelled by Aoun's staff, citing the General's
unscheduled absence from Lebanon. Khoury shared a flight
manifest, obtained from "our contacts at the airport," that
showed Aoun and two advisors (the ubiquitous Gebran Bassil
and Elie Cheddid) on a CE-10 Belgium Air Force flight 695
from Beirut to Brussels (refueling in Athens) on 9/13.
Khoury shook his head when the Ambassador asked whether Aoun
might be having some kind of official consultations with the
Belgians or with the EU.
HIZBALLAH AUTHORIZED AOUN
ON TRADING SOLDIERS FOR KANTAR
--------------
3. (S) Hinting at the Hariris having a mole in the Aoun
camp, Khoury said that Aoun was off to meet with Israeli
officials either in Brussels or perhaps even in Israel.
Hizballah, Khoury reported, had offered Aoun a deal: Aoun
can turn over the two Israeli soldiers captured by Hizballah
on July 12 (the incident that sparked the recent conflict),
if he can convince the Israelis to release Samir Kantar
(imprisoned in Israel for murder since 1978) and other
Lebanese detainees, which Khoury presumed meant those seized
by Israel during the recent conflict. With Hizballah's
promise in his pocket, Aoun is off to see what he can do.
Hizballah and Aoun believe that Olmert is so weak that he
wants the Israeli captives released at any price, even at the
expense of possibly strengthening Aoun and Hizballah.
HUGE RALLIES TO WELCOME KANTAR,
PROCLAIM AOUN AS A HERO
--------------
4. (S) Aoun would either travel with Kantar back to Lebanon
or be on hand to receive him when he is released. Enormous
Hizballah-orchestrated rallies would welcome Kantar and play
up Aoun as the hero of the prisoner exchange. By contrast,
Siniora and his cabinet will look weak and ineffective,
unable to protect Lebanese interests and incapable of
securing Kantar's release. "People will ask," Khoury said,
"'where are your American friends? What good are they?'"
The exchange will become part of the Aoun-Hizballah effort to
topple the government.
5. (S) The intermediary between Aoun and the Israelis,
according to Khoury, is a Catholic priest of Lebanese origin
named Jean Ibrahim Abboud, formerly the Latin Archibishop of
Tripoli. Abboud reportedly lived in Israel from 1976 to 1980
and still maintains close ties there. According to Lebanese
immigration information, Abboud last entered Lebanon via
Belgium military transport on September 2 and stayed for
three days. He also visited Lebanon from July 29 to August
BEIRUT 00003006 002 OF 002
4, transiting Syria. Abboud's brother Colonel Youssef Abboud
is, according to Khoury, the LAF officer in charge of Michel
Aoun's LAF-provided security detail.
6. (S) Khoury, who accepted Hariri's tale of intrigue
fully, expressed deep alarm about this development. He
expressed hope that the USG would be able to persuade Israel
not to take steps that would lead to a strengthening of
Michel Aoun and Hizballah, which he argued would be against
Israel's long-term interests in Lebanon.
COMMENT
--------------
7. (S) Aoun's mysterious trip to Belgium by military
aircraft has provoked enormous speculation in Lebanon
(especially in the absence of the Belgium Ambassador),and
conspiracy theorists working overtime might have developed
the scenario above. We note that Aoun's people have called
to reschedule the Ambassador's meeting with Aoun for 9/15,
suggesting that Aoun (a) will be back in Lebanon soon and (b)
is not yet booked solid with massive public rallies filled
with enthusiastic throngs welcoming back Samir Kantar and
proclaiming Aoun a hero. So, at most, it seems that Aoun's
Belgian excursion, if it was linked to prisoner exchanges as
Khoury (speaking for Hariri) insisted, was at best an
exploratory mission.
8. (S) Both Israel and Lebanon have, we understand,
accepted the UN as the sole mediator on the prisoner issue.
Presumably, both will stick to that formula. We wonder
whether the UN is amenable to a message that its mediation
efforts should reinforce the GOL and not strengthen those
trying to destroy the Lebanese cabinet. The Ambassador will
explore this issue with UNSYG Annan's Personal Representative
for Lebanon Geir Pedersen, and we will also quiz Aoun when we
see him on Saturday about his Belgian trip.
FELTMAN