LEBANON: NASRALLAH'S THREATENING WORDS ELICIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003003

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2016
TAGS: IS LE MOPS PGOV PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: NASRALLAH'S THREATENING WORDS ELICIT
STRONG RESPONSE


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (b).

SUMMARY
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1. (C/NF) An extended two-part Hassan Nasrallah interview
on Al-Jazeera television on 12-13 September has provoked a
sharp response across the political spectrum in Lebanon.
Pro-reform forces were both outraged and felt threatened by
the harsh rhetoric that Nasrallah employed. His accusations
that "certain elements" in the March 14 movement "stabbed him
in the back" during the war and were essentially working as
U.S. agents deeply unsettled the political community. While
some politicians feared Nasrallah's words would have a
chilling effect on a still anxious nation, other observers
believe Nasrallah himself is increasingly nervous because of
gradually emerging criticism concerning Hizballah's arrogant
and costly behavior on July 12 and throughout the war. More
than one politician sees the excessive language used by
Nasrallah as a strong indication that he is desperately
trying to keep the previously monolithic Shia community in
line through intimidation. End summary.

NASRALLAH RHETORICALLY BLASTS SINIORA
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2. (U) Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah
continued his harsh attacks on Lebanon's pro-reform forces
with a September 12-13 televised interview on Al-Jazeera.
Nasrallah issued a thinly veiled political threat against
Prime Minister Siniora by stating that Hizballah might
reconsider its participation in his Government. He also
accused Siniora of "a lack of ethics and sensitivity" when he
invited British PM Tony Blair to visit Beirut earlier this
week. But perhaps Nasrallah's most threatening message was
his insistence that Siniora's Government did not have the
support of the "street" and should give way to a national
unity government -- that would include Hizballah ally Michel
Aoun.

SOME REFORMISTS ARE INTIMIDATED
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3. (C/NF) Former MP (and political ally of Saad Hariri)
Ghattas Khoury told the Embassy that he found Nasrallah's
statements "terrifying," because he believed they conveyed
"implicit death threats" against the leaders of the March 14
pro-reform movement. Khoury believes Nasrallah has embarked
upon a determined campaign of political intimidation that
will not cease until the Siniora Government falls.


4. (U) In a press interview on September 14, Acting
Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat, allied with the Future
Movement, strongly attacked Nasrallah's statements that
implied any criticism of the "resistance" was tantamount to
treason. Minister Fatfat stated that such reckless language
amounted to "an invitation to murder." In a similar vein,
Minister of Social Affairs Nayla Mouawad told the press she
deeply resented Nasrallah's call for a new government,
because such a move would leave the formation of the
government in the hands of President Emile Lahoud -- and his
Syrian masters.

...WHILE OTHERS SEE NASRALLAH'S ANXIETY
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5. (C/NF) MP Wael Abu Faour, an outspoken member of Walid
Jumblatt's bloc, told us that Jumblatt has decided not to
respond to Nasrallah's accusations at this time, because he
feared it would play directly into Nasrallah's hands by
inflaming the situation and jeopardizing the impending
formation of the international tribunal. Abu Faour, however,
was less worried than Khoury and Fatfat, and said that
Nasrallah's recent speeches demonstrate his growing anxiety
over possible loss of control over the Shia community, in the
sense that he will brand any deviation from Hizballah
orthodoxy as "traitorous."


6. (C/NF) Political analyst and former Ambassador Simon
Karam viewed the latest Nasrallah gambit in a vein similar to
Abu Faour. Karam believes that Hizballah's leader is playing
on Lebanon's ever-present fear of Shia-Sunni tensions in an
effort to short-circuit growing questions about the actual
cost of Hizballah's "resistance" in the just-completed

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conflict. Karam said he hopes the UN Security Council would
continue to apply strong pressure on Hizballah to disarm its
still-powerful militia.


7. (C/NF) Lebanese Forces MP George Adwan expressed to us
his concern that Nasrallah's uncompromising stance is raising
sectarian tensions to "dangerous" levels. But he also said
he is torn about whether pro-reform forces should forcefully
answer Nasrallah's charges -- if they stand back, it could
help lower tensions, but at the same time Nasrallah and Aoun
(and the Syrians) may sense weakness and become even more
reckless in their accusations and actions.


8. (C/NF) Future Movement MP Ghouna Jalloul told poloff on
September 14 that she and many of her colleagues now believe
a fracture is developing in the Shia community as a result of
the considerable cost in human life of Hizballah's latest
actions. Jalloul, who claimed to have discussed the topic
with numerous moderate Shia, stated that many in that
community are eager for an alternative to Hizballah. She
insisted that Nasrallah's "hysterical charges" will backfire
badly because it reveals his continuing interest in pursuing
an aggressive policy toward the Israeli state. Jalloul
declared, "Everyone in Lebanon, including the Shia, are sick
of war and are tired of listening to Nasrallah's repeated
threats."
FELTMAN