LEBANON: PATRIARCH SFEIR CRITICIZES MICHEL AOUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002987

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE NEA/ELA FOR ABERCROMBIE-WINSTANLEY/WILLIAMS/DONICK
NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2016
TAGS: PREL KIRF LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PATRIARCH SFEIR CRITICIZES MICHEL AOUN

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) During a brief September 14 meeting with the
Ambassador and poloff at his seat in Bkirke, Maronite
Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir discussed the September
6 Maronite Bishop's statement. Deeply concerned by Michel
Aoun's alliance with Hizballah, the Patriarch believes that a
post-Ramadan civil disobedience campaign would be seriously
destabilizing for Lebanon, and that the Siniora government
must be supported. Discussing Hassan Nasrallah's recent
belligerent al-Jazeera interview, Sfeir believes the
Hizballah leader is lashing out because he is under pressure
in Lebanon. Lamenting the lack of Christian political unity,
Sfeir said that, whereas they used to lead Lebanon's
political factions, the Christians are now weakened and split
between the Sunni and Shi'i camps. END SUMMARY.

OPEN RACE FOR PRESIDENT
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2. (C) Commenting on the Bishop's statement, Sfeir agreed
with the Ambassador's interpretation -- vaguely-worded as
usual, the statement required extensive reading between the
lines -- that the Bishops support a multi-candidate
presidential election, but that the candidates must be
serious and have the necessary qualifications. Sfeir
confided that Michel Aoun had recently asked for the
Patriarch's backing for the Presidency, though if Sfeir were
to opt for another candidate, Aoun promised to support that
person. Sfeir told Aoun that the next President is not for
the Patriarch to decide, and that he will back the choice of
Parliament.

NOT FOOLED BY AOUN
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3. (C) Revealing his true feelings about the mercurial
ex-General, Sfeir noted that Aoun is unlikely to win
parliamentary approval since he can only rely on votes from
his Free Patriotic Movement and Hizballah, which Sfeir
implied have become indistinguishable. "General Aoun is
Hizballah," said a clearly-annoyed Sfeir, "It's the same
party!" Sfeir said he has heard the rumors that Aoun is now
receiving money from Iran via Hizballah, and believes
Hizballah is merely using Aoun to have a popular Christian
voice on his side, not just the irrelevant Emile Lahoud.
Aoun, in turn, hopes to have Hizballah muscle behind his
presidential bid.


4. (C) Complimenting the job PM Siniora has done, Sfeir is
strongly against changing the government now, as Hizballah
and Aoun propose. Sfeir believes these calls are being
instigated by the Syrians, who hope that a new government
will help suppress the proposed tribunal to try suspects in
the Hariri assassination. The Ambassador asked about the
rumors of a possible post-Ramadan, Aounist-led campaign of
civil strife, which Sfeir replied would be very dangerous for
Lebanon -- "The safety of Lebanon is in asking the Siniora
government to continue."

HIZBALLAH FEELING THE PRESSURE
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5. (C) Sfeir believes that Hassan Nasrallah's increasingly
provocative rhetoric is in response to a small but growing
trend within the Shi'a community, and more generally
throughout Lebanon, against Hizballah retaining its weapons.
This includes the recent Bishops' statement, which Sfeir
noted Nasrallah had indirectly criticized in his recent
al-Jazeera interview. "Hizballah is lashing out because it
is not at ease," according to Sfeir, "They have been
criticized." Despite this, Hizballah still presents a
formidable force, said Sfeir, since the party -- backed by
arms and funding from Syria and Iran -- can still enforce or
purchase control over Shi'a public opinion in Lebanon.

MARONITE PRESIDENCY: AN EMPTY VESSEL
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BEIRUT 00002987 002 OF 002




6. (C) On the subject of Emile Lahoud, Sfeir commented that
"the Presidency has no effectiveness." Concerned that the
increasing irrelevance of the Presidency means a relative
loss of Maronite political prestige in Lebanon, Sfeir
suggested that Lahoud should step down (reiterating a
position he first took during his 2005 Christmas Mass
sermon). "If you judge your Presidency to be useless," said
Sfeir, speaking of Lahoud, "Then why continue?"

THE CRISIS IN CHRISTIAN POLITICS
--------------


7. (C) Sfeir worries that the fractious state of Christian
politics is similarly diminishing the Christian role
vis-a-vis the Sunna and Shi'a. Waxing nostalgic, Sfeir
recalled the days after Lebanese independence in 1943, when
Maronites -- Bishara el-Khoury and Emile Edde -- headed the
two largest interconfessional parliamentary blocs, with
Sunna, Shi'a, and Druze arrayed behind them. However, the
Christians today head no prominent political bloc, preferring
to ally themselves with either the Sunna (Saad Hariri) or
Shi'a (Hizballah).


8. (C) When the Ambassador asked whether the Patriarch
would assemble leading Christian politicians in Bkirke to try
and restore some unity, the Patriarch gave a hopeless shrug
of his berobed shoulders and said it would never amount to
anything. He recalled when, in 1978, his predecessor brought
together at Bkirke the two prominent Maronite clan leaders of
the day -- Pierre Gemayel and Suleyman Frangieh -- to resolve
their differences. Two days after that, remarked the
Patriarch wearily, "the massacre at Ehden happened" (when
Phalange forces loyal to Gemayel attacked the Ehden compound
of Frangieh's son Tony, killing him, his wife, and daughter).

COMMENT
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9. (C) We face the same problem as always with the
enigmatic Patriarch: he seems to share our deep concerns
with Michel Aoun's Hizballah alliance, and he appears to be
scornful of Aoun's unprincipled ambition. No doubt the
Patriarch remembers the embarrassment he suffered at the
hands of Aoun's followers in 1989, when the Aounists pulled
him out of his patriarchal bed to force him to kiss Aoun's
photograph repeatedly to atone for the Patriarch's "sin" of
backing the Ta'if accord. But, at the same time, the
Patriarch knows that Aoun has a strong following. We guess
that the Patriarch masks his words publicly in order to avoid
forcing Aoun's Maronite followers to have to choose between
Aoun and the Patriarch.
FELTMAN