LEBANON: MP MOSBAH AHDAB AND ALLIES SEEK NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002886

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2016
TAGS: ECON EFIN LE PREL KDEM
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MP MOSBAH AHDAB AND ALLIES SEEK NEW
POLITICAL GROUPING, PRIVATE SECTOR RECONSTRUCTION FUND

REF: BEIRUT 002874

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4 (d)


1. (SBU) Member of Parliament for Tripoli Mosbah Ahdab
requested a meeting in the Ambassador's office on 9/7 to
discuss an initiative to provide assistance to Lebanon's
war-damaged private sector and a political initiative to
provide an alternative to Lebanon's rigid confessional
groupings. Ahdab brought with him a marketing team: Eli
Khoury, political activist and CEO of Saatchi and Saatchi
Levant; Samir Nader, political advisor (who was formerly
Michel Aoun's son-in-law but broke with Aoun both
domestically and politcally); and Elena Anouti, a Project
Manager at Quantum Communications. Polcouns was notetaker.

A New Political Grouping
--------------


2. (C) Khoury provided the group's marketing strategy for a
new political grouping which would join and reinvigorate the
March 14 bloc. He saluted the "progress of the last two
years" and said it must be strengthened. Lebanon's social
progress is closest now to stability than at any time since
the Lebanese Civil War. However, the lack of a Christian
side of the "tripod" is an impediment. The GOL is centrist
but, unless there is a counter to Hizballah's rhetoric and
pressures, could develop rightist tendencies -- which Khoury
defined as an alignment with Tehran. Right now, for Lebanese
political figures to express alignment with "the free world"
creates a political liability, while expressing opposite
sentiments may boost, or at least not hurt, their popularity.


3. (C) Even the March 14 grouping, which Khoury described as
remaining "70 percent" pro-US, needs to be committed to
Resolutions 1559 and 1701 and would secretly welcome pressure
from a new group in that direction, Khoury predicted. There
also needs to be public debunking of Hizballah's victory
rhetoric following the July-August conflict.


4. (C) The new grouping already has the membership of two MPs
(Ahdab and Samir Franjieh) and has received words of support
from Saad al-Hariri and Walid Jumblatt. It has also received
discreet support from Tyre Shi'ite Mufti and Hizballah critic
Said Ali al-Amin. While there is no official name yet, its
founders have considered "Freedom League" in English and
Tajamaa lil Jomhoria in Arabic, recalling the French
political party Rassemblement pour la Republique and
suggesting a political grouping rather than a new party. The
new grouping would stress its Lebanese identity.


5. (C) MP Ahdab elaborated, there are two factors which stop
people from speaking out. One is the phenomenon referred to
as "impunity" -- i.e., as Lebanon saw yesterday, political
assassinations and assassination attempts have gone
unpunished. A second factor is the failure of the political
leadership to truly lead, such as taking politically
difficult or courageous positions that shake up the status
quo. Ahdab added that the new group would push for
accountability and leadership, but that it would do so in
coordination and cooperation with others. It would take a
lesson from its experience with Rafiq al-Hariri, the founder
of the Mustaqbal ("Future") Party, who did not truly trust
those who wished to collaborate with Mustaqbal without being
members. Ahdab added that there is now political freedom for
Shi'ites to disagree with Hizballah, and the new grouping
could provide additional cover for them.


6. (SBU) Nader stressed the need to boost the political life
of Lebanon. He described a number of "political start-ups"
to which the new political grouping could give a platform and
funding. There are also a great number of the "politically
homeless" -- i.e., Shi'a who are disaffected with Hizballah
and Amal; Druze independents, who thus far have been hard to
find; and others. He stressed the need to "rekindle the
March 14 movement".

Private Sector Fund
--------------


7. (SBU) The group's second initiative comprises a "trust

BEIRUT 00002886 002 OF 002


fund" for Lebanese reconstruction which would focus on
reinvigorating the private sector. The Fund has already been
set up by Swiss-based Lebanese, Nader explained. This group
has also hired a Swiss firm to verify its not-for-profit
status. It is now seeking funding beyond the $100,000 seed
money that has been contributed so far.


8. (SBU) The group asked for a "USG blessing" of the new
foundation. (Note: This may be the same foundation pitched
to us on September 6 by Ghattas Khoury (reftel); while they
were not sure, the group said they had indeed raised the
topic with Mustaqbal representatives. End Note.) This
blessing would be important to establish the anti-corruption
credentials of the foundation and to provide potential tax
deductions for US-based donors.


9. (SBU) The Ambassador and Polcouns promised to help the
group coordinate with USG agencies on the reconstruction
initiative; and to remain in contact regarding its new
political grouping and help them to arrange meetings with
interested parties in Washington week after next.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Eli Khoury and his Quantum colleagues were the
brains behind last year's "Independence 05" striking visual
images that accompanied the "Cedar Revolution." With his
flair for marketing and his commitment to Lebanese
sovereignty, independence, and democracy, Khoury is a great
asset for this new grouping. Ahdab, as one of only two Sunni
MPs who dared to defy Syria's orders to extend Emile Lahoud's
presidential term, has already proven courageous. And Sami
Nader's prominence in this new group is an important signal
to others who may once have been believers in Michel Aoun but
have become disillusioned -- they, too, do not need to remain
"politically homeless."


11. (C) While the ideas expressed this morning are still
preliminary, there is one part of their proposal that we find
espeially appealing: there are no big names that dominate
the group. Whereas all of Lebanon's other major political
trends are personality and confessionally driven (Hariri,
Berri, Nasrallah, Jumblatt, etc.),this "Freedom League" has
the potential to be truly democratic and cross-confessional
in spirit. That means that it just may be possible to
attract independent Shia (as Khoury, Ahdab, and Nadar hope),
as the Shia who don't like Hizballah and Amal currently have
no other natural place to go. If the group builds momentum,
we expect that some March 14 politicians may not be
altogether comfortable with its reform message. But we think
that the "Freedom League" is an exciting idea with great
potential. We hope that it can overcome all of the built-in
Lebanese disadvantages to this kind of movement and grows
behind its currently quite nascent stage.
FELTMAN