LEBANON: SINIORA AND HAMADEH EXPECT CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002851

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2026
TAGS: PREL PTER LE SY IS
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SINIORA AND HAMADEH EXPECT CABINET
APPROVAL FOR LETTER

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) The Ambassador and poloff met separately with
Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora and Information Minister
Marwan Hamadeh on the afternoon of September 4. Siniora,
joined by advisors Mohammad Chatta and Roula Noureddine,
appeared very upbeat and is optimistic that this evening the
Cabinet will approve sending a letter to Germany requesting
maritime assistance. Concerned that the Germans have said
they will need 17 days to approve and despatch the naval
force, Siniora says he has a commitment from the Italians,
and possibly the French and Greeks, to patrol the coast in
the interim. Siniora reacted positively to the Ambassador's
suggestion that UNIFIL, at its request, be permitted to
establish liaison offices at the airport and seaports as
logistical support for the expanded deployment and, as a
quiet sideline, to monitor any suspicious activity. Siniora
noted that Nabih Berri, initially vocally opposed to sending
a letter to Germany, now supports taking this step, and added
that the widescale public discussion concerning the letter
had actually helped make the measure politically more
feasible. Siniora cautioned though that if the issue of the
blockade is not resolved in the near future, the GOL will
lose momentum and support.


2. (C) Hamadeh was similarly positive about Cabinet
approval of the letter, and also remarked that Speaker Berri
has moderated his stance. He agreed fully with the idea of
establishing UNIFIL liaison offices at the airport and
seaport. Hamadeh added that UN Legal Advisor Nicholas Michel
will arrive in Beirut on Thursday to finalize the agreement
to establish a special tribunal for the Hariri assassination.
END SUMMARY.

SINIORA FEELING BUOYANT
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3. (C) During the meeting at the Grand Serail, Siniora came
across as relaxed and confident, a far cry from his
distraught, fatigued demeanor of recent days. Siniora said
that he had gone out to lunch with his wife for the first
time in two months and had received a standing ovation from
the other restaurant patrons, which seems to have buoyed him
somewhat. He anticipates the Cabinet this evening will
approve his sending a letter to German Chancellor Merkel
stating Lebanon's intent to formally request maritime
assistance (Note. At this stage, Siniora is proposing
sending two separate letters, the initial letter of intent
and a formal request about a week later. End Note). Siniora
hopes this letter of intent will be enough to allow the
German government to start turning the wheels to approve
despatching the force.


4. (C) Siniora said that Speaker Berri has overcome his
previous opposition and is prepared now to accept the letter
proposal. According to Siniora, Berri reacted so publicly
and negatively to the letter idea because it was a way for
him to seize the spotlight, while he also remains suspicious
-- as does Siniora -- that following the letter and
deployment of maritime assets the Israelis will place even
more conditions on Lebanon in order to get the blockade
lifted. Siniora indicated that Berri's exposure on this
issue is useful in that, if it bears fruit, it will bring him
more into the GOL fold and further distance him from
Hizballah.


5. (C) Surprisingly, Siniora noted that all the public
furor surrounding the letter has made it easier for him to
arrange things politically: while opposed to the letter
because of the perception that it invites infringement of
Lebanon's sovereignty, people are by now taking it for
granted that a letter must be drafted in order to get the
blockade lifted. However, cautioned Siniora, if the letter
is drafted and the blockade is not lifted soon thereafter,
the GOL will be put to task by its opponents in the Aounist
and Hizballah camps while public confidence in the government
will be deflated.


BEIRUT 00002851 002 OF 002



6. (C) The window of opportunity for the government to make
this work is very small indeed, which is why Siniora is
concerned about the 17-day wait for the German arrival. In
the interim, Siniora suggests lifting the air and sea
blockades in phases, beginning with the airport. Before our
meeting, he met with Italian officials who said they are
capable and willing right now to patrol 50 per cent of
Lebanon's coastline until the German arrival, and reportedly
do not need a formal letter from the GOL. Siniora will speak
with the French and Greeks about patrolling the other half of
the coastline for the time being. Regarding having an
international presence in the airport and seaport, the
Ambassador suggested that UNIFIL could request to establish
liaison offices officially tasked with supporting the UNIFIL
presence -- troop arrivals, supplies, VIP visits -- while
unofficially keeping an eye on Lebanese security and customs.
Siniora reacted very positively to this idea, though the
Ambassador stressed that he was speaking privately. Such a
suggestion may still not be enough to convince the wary
Israelis, concerned about Lebanon's ability and willingness
to secure its borders.

HAMADEH ALSO POSITIVE
--------------


7. (C) Minister of Telecommunications Marwan Hamadeh (an
ally of Walid Joumblatt) was in a similarly upbeat frame of
mind, and said that Nabih Berri has toned down his rhetoric
against the letter proposal, perhaps in anticipation of this
evening's Cabinet session approving the missive. Hamadeh
remarked that Berri's first priority is to have the airport
reopened immediately, followed by the port. Noting that
Siniora and Berri have been working closely together on this
issue, as they did during the UNSCR 1701 negotiations,
Hamadeh said that Siniora's goal now is to keep Berri close
and supportive of his government. According to Hamadeh,
during the ongoing parliamentary sit-in Berri has often cut
off Aounist MPs who are trying to use the opportunity to
denounce the Siniora government.


8. (C) Hamadeh said that UN Legal Advisor Nicholas Michel
will arrive in Beirut on Thursday to discuss the draft
agreement on the special tribunal and stressed that the
Cabinet should move to approve it immediately. According to
Hamadeh, President Lahoud is now saying that he wants to get
rid of his old friend Justice Minister Charles Rizk, a
supposed Lahoud ally in the Cabinet who has played a key role
in pushing to finalize the agreement. During the meeting,
Hamadeh called to reassure Rizk, telling him that, "We are
all in solidarity. You inspire respect amongst all of us."
(Comment. Rizk, a Maronite, has designs on succeeding his
friend as President, and needs to appear more palatable to
the March 14 crowd. End Comment).


9. (C) Mentioning some key upcoming events, Hamadeh expects
Maronite Patriarch Sfeir to issue a strongly pro-GOL
communique following the bishop's meeting on Wednesday 9/6,
and that there will be an expanded March 14 meeting on
Thursday 9/7 at which the Maronite members will endorse the
Patriarch's statement. Hamadeh assesses that Sfeir, fed up
with Michel Aoun's anti-GOL invective, is hoping to act as a
unifying and responsible Maronite leader.
FELTMAN