LEBANON: ROBERT GHANEM SETS HIS SIGHTS ON BAABDA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 002844

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER SY LE KDEM
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ROBERT GHANEM SETS HIS SIGHTS ON BAABDA
PALACE


Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C/NF) During an expansive luncheon with the
Ambassador, poloff, and pol FSN on August 29, West Biqa' MP
Robert Ghanem said that there needs to be better coordination
of the reconstruction effort and recommended establishing an
umbrella organization to oversee the effort. Ghanem (who, as
with most Maronites, entertains presidential ambitions) says
it is time to remove President Lahoud and suggests Speaker
Nabih Berri can be won over to the cause with the right
combination of money and influence. Michel Aoun is an
unlikely candidate to replace Lahoud as he has lost nearly a
quarter of his support among the Christian community over his
pro-Hizballah stance. Ghanem added there are rumors that
Hizballah and Syria will begin acting against March 14 MPs,
perhaps even targetting some for assassination. Hailing from
a diverse region of Lebanon, Ghanem believes there is some
frustration with Hizballah among the Shi'a, and that by
removing cards such as the Sheba'a Farms, the Lebanese can
ultimately get the group to disarm. Ghanem also suggested
there should be a plan in place for disarming the Palestinian
militias. END SUMMARY.

NEED FOR COORDINATION OF RECONSTRUCTION
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2. (C) Concerned that the reconstruction effort has gotten
off to a slow start, Ghanem said that the main issue is a
lack of coordination, so that there are hundreds of
rebuilding initiatives but no central authority tying these
together (Comment. We have experienced this phenomenon,
whereby one Ministry tells us one thing, and then another
Ministry contradicts this. End Comment). Ghanem suggested
either giving this coordinative role to the Hariri-controlled
the Council for Development and Reconstruction (CDR) or
create a new "National Authority" to oversee the rebuilding
effort. This authority, which would include professionals
such as engineers, auditors and surveyors, would be
responsible for overall planning and strategizing for
reconstruction and would disburse money for specific projects
to ministries and organizations. Ghanem said he has
presented his idea to Siniora, who was non-committal.

TIME FOR LAHOUD TO GO
--------------


3. (C) Ghanem believes it is time to get rid of Emile
Lahoud -- "that will solve 75 percent of our problems." The
LAF, according to Ghanem, is still predominantly Shi'a and
pro-Syrian. To change the army, argues Ghanem, the Lebanese
must first change the President. He also believes Lahoud
must have known that thousands of rockets were smuggled into
Lebanon from Syria over the years, and Ghanem charged that
Lahoud is culpable of "high treason" for his role in allowing
this build-up to take place. Similarly, the head of the
airport, Wafiq Shukair, a known Hizballah sympathizer, should
have been removed at least two years ago, but Lahoud has kept
him in place (though Shukair has been sidelined by recent
changes in airport security).


4. (C) Ghanem acknowledged that the key to Lahoud's removal
is the as yet unsupportive Nabih Berri, but that if "we give
him what he wants", Berri might be tempted to swing his
parliamentary bloc against Lahoud. Berri must realize that
his position vis-a-vis deciding the next President is
stronger now than it will be a year from now, when Lahoud is
due to step down anyway. Though Berri would prefer former
Foreign Minister Jean Obeid as the next President, an
unacceptable choice for the March 14 group, he would be
prepared to accept two or three compromise candidates. "I
know my name would be one of those Berri would support,"
stumped Ghanem, who is not a full-fledged March 14 member
(having not been part of the movement at the beginning),
though is not pro-Syrian either.


5. (C) What would swing Berri against Lahoud? "Power,"
replied Ghanem, "Involve Nabih, more and more. Give him
primacy over Hizballah." Ghanem suggested diverting

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reconstruction funds to Berri's Council for the South and
also expanding the Cabinet to allow Amal to have four
ministers (rather than the current three). Ghanem does not
think that, if approached by the March 14 group about
removing Lahoud, Berri would automatically go running to the
Syrians to denounce the plot and proclaim his fealty since
Syria is no longer the power it once was in Lebanon. Ghanem
believes though that the March 14 group should wait to
proposition Berri until after the next Brammertz report,
especially if it implicates Syria even further. Ghanem said
that Berri and Siniora have developed a good working
partnership throughout the recent crisis, which will help in
working out a solution for Lahoud.

WHITHER THE GENERAL?
--------------


6. (C) Ghanem does not believe Aoun will be a credible
candidate for President and doubts whether Hizballah truly
wants him to occupy Baabda palace. Furthermore, Aoun's
support among Christians is drying up; he has lost nearly a
quarter of his supporters, according to Ghanem, since he
signed his pact with Hizballah in February 2006. Of these,
about one-third have moved into Samir Ja'ja's camp, while the
rest remain adrift. Ghanem estimates that right now
one-third of Christians are with Aoun, one-third are with the
March 14 movement politicians, and one-third are
non-affiliated.

A MOVE AGAINST MARCH 14
--------------


7. (C) Ghanem says there are rumors that the Syrians plan
to act against the March 14 movement and that Hizballah will
try to kill three or four March 14 deputies in the hopes of
causing the GOL to topple. Other pro-Syrians -- Ghanem
mentioned Elie Ferzli and Omar Karameh in specific -- will
support this move so as to deflect attention from the
investigation into Rafiq Hariri's assassination. "They want
to create a vacuum because they are afraid of Brammertz,"
Ghanem claimed.

GETTING HIZBALLAH TO DISARM
--------------


8. (C) According to Ghanem, who hails from an area of
Lebanon which he describes as a "microcosm of Lebanon" due to
its diversity (Note. West Biqa' has 2 Sunni MPs, 1 Greek
Orthodox, 1 Maronite, 1 Druze, and 1 Shi'ite. End Note),he
has sensed a certain amount of Shi'a displeasure with
Hizballah following the conflict with Israel. After an
initial period of jubilation, average Shi'a will begin to ask
themselves whether it was worth it just to poke Israel in the
eye. Ghanem claims that Hizballah, realizing this, is in
full damage control mode and is directing its propaganda
machine primarily towards shoring up its own base. Ghanem
also believes Hizballah has recoiled from Syria following
Bashar's over-the-top August 15 speech.


9. (C) In terms of disarming Hizballah, Ghanem
unsurprisingly holds that resolving the Sheba'a Farms
question is the key. "Look, we know Sheba'a is nothing,"
Ghanem admitted, "but we need to take all the cards from
Hizballah's hands, and then corner them." Arguing that
Hizballah can't be forcibly disarmed, Ghanem thinks that the
Sheba'a Farms should be put under UN trusteeship. With this,
as well as a prisoner exchange, Ghanem believes that the GOL
can put sufficient pressure on Hizballah to get the group to
hand its weapons over to the LAF,

DON'T FORGET THE PALESTINIANS
--------------


10. (C) One should also keep in mind the need to disarm
Palestinian militant groups in Lebanon, remarked Ghanem.
While he understands the difficulty in flushing out weapons
from the large, ungovernable Palestinian refugee camps,
Ghanem feels that Palestinian militants can be disarmed more
easily wherever they are present outside of the camps, such
as near the towns of Naame (south of Beirut) and Sultan
Yaaqoub (in the Biqa'). Ghanem suggested that the LAF should

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move in and surround these bases in force, compelling the
militants to hand in their weapons, though he warned that the
GOL could not disarm Hizballah and the Palestinians at the
same time.
FELTMAN