MURR: HIZBALLAH AND AOUN ARE PLOTTING SINIORA'S

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIRUT 002841

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2026
TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS LE SY IS
SUBJECT: MURR: HIZBALLAH AND AOUN ARE PLOTTING SINIORA'S
DOWNFALL

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S/NF) During an August 31 meeting with Ambassador
Feltman and poloff, Lebanese Defense Minister Elias Murr said
that Hizballah, Michel Aoun, and their allies are planning to
launch a potentially violent civil disobedience campaign in
November aimed at toppling the Siniora government and putting
in a more pliant regime in anticipation of next year's
presidential election. Murr said he would immediately
coordinate with Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt, and Marwan
Hamadeh on how to respond to this threat. He stressed that
the international community could play a helpful role by
supporting the GOL and pressing Israel to lift the air and
sea blockade on Lebanon soon. An international
representative (Murr suggests British Ambassador James Watt)
could also warn presidential-hopeful Michel Aoun that he can
expect a full-scale diplomatic embargo on him -- much as with
Emile Lahoud -- if he participates in this plot.


2. (S/NF) Murr asked several times whether the blockade
will be lifted soon. The Ambassador asked Murr again to give
the international community, and especially Israel, a clear
understanding of what exactly has been done regarding
stopping arms smuggling. Murr agreed that the GOL needs to
do more to convince the Israelis of their seriousness, and
agreed to provide UNIFIL commander Alain Pelligrini with a
helicopter tour of LAF positions along the Lebanon-Syria
border and in the Bekaa Valley. At the Ambassador's
suggestion, he asked LAF General Shaatly (coordinating with
UNIFIL in Naqoura) to share information with UNIFIL and the
IDF regarding the LAF deployment along the border with Syria.
Murr said that the LAF has so far confiscated 90-100
rockets, as well as a quantity of TNT belonging to Hizballah.
He said the TNT is being tested to see if it matched that
used in last year's bombings. At the end of the meeting,
Murr whispered to the Ambassador to be careful and not travel
outside of the Christian suburbs of Beirut. END SUMMARY.

A NOVEMBER SURPRISE
--------------


3. (S/NF) Murr started the meeting by saying, "I have
information, and you know my information is good." Murr said
that he has received word from sources inside Hizballah --
which he subsequently confirmed with sources in Aoun's Free
Patriotic movement (FPM) -- that Aoun and Hizballah have
concocted a strategy whereby they and members of the
pro-Syrian March 8 movement will try to bring down the
Siniora government. For now they plan to continue their
verbal sniping at the government -- labeling it crippled and
corrupt and calling for a national unity governemnt --
through the end of Ramadan in late October. This will give
the Shia supporters of Hizballah a break, after the recent
conflict, and a chance to enjoy Ramadan.


4. (S/NF) After this, they will send their supporters out
into the streets in a campaign of civil disobedience. They
hope to provoke the Internal Security Forces (ISF),viewed as
a Hariri-controlled outfit, to fire on the protestors, at
which point they will "break and burn Solidere" -- the
downtown Beirut area rebuilt by Rafiq Hariri (a symbol of
both Hariri and Lebanon's post-war rebirth). They will also
occupy and stage a sit-in at government offices and
Parliament. Their goal is chaos, and they hope their action
will coax Lebanese Forces commander Samir Ja'ja to descend
from his Bsharre mountain redoubt and to take up weapons
against them. Murr says that if Ja'ja joins in the clashes,
Hizballah intends to arm Michel Aoun, provoking a rehash of
the internecine Christian conflict of the late 1980s.


5. (S/NF) The Ambassador asked what the March 8 forces and
Aoun hope to achieve through this violence. "They want to
paralyze the country," Murr explained, "They want to make the
government fall." He said that they would do to March 14
what the pro-independence forces did to former Prime Minister
Omar Karami on 2/28/04 (when public protests sparked Karami's
resignation). They would then form a new Cabinet with fewer
March 14 ministers, a neutral, do-nothing Prime Minister

BEIRUT 00002841 002 OF 004


(such as bland former Economy Minister Adnan Kassar),a
Shi'ite Defense Minister (though not necessarily from
Hizballahi),and, perhaps most frighteningly of all, Aoun as
Minister of Interior. The plotters plan to take control of
the army, security services, and reconstruction funds. The
coup will reach its crescendo the following November, when
the conspirators plan to install a sympathetic new President
(probably Aoun) for a six-year, Lahoud-esque term.

COUNTER-STRATEGY
--------------


6. (S/NF) Murr said he had just sent a trusted officer with
a message to Saad Hariri conveying this information.
Otherwise, he had not told anyone else of the plot. He
intends to hold a council with Hariri, Walid Jumblatt, and
Marwan Hamadeh in the coming days to discuss a preemptive
strategy to head off the threat (Comment. Murr did not
mention that any Maronite would join the council. He did say
that Information Minister Ghazi Aridi - a supposed Jumblatt
ally - is a "spy" and not to be trusted. END COMMENT).


7. (S/NF) According to Murr, the Murr-Jumblatt-Hariri
strategy will focus on political, media, and security
aspects. On the political front, they will need to quickly
build up the strength and presence of the state to face down
the challenge to its legitimacy. They will also send a clear
message to Ja'ja' not to rise to the Hizballah-Aounist bait
-- "Saad will need to tell him that if he decides to play
this game, he will go back to prison forever." The position
of Nabih Berri will of course be crucial. He will need to be
wooed to the government side, though Murr predicted he would
try and play a "UN" role, mediating between the two sides,
while waiting to see who comes out ahead.


8. (S/NF) From the media angle, the GOL will need to launch
an organized campaign challenging Aoun and Hizballah's calls
for a new National Unity government. (Note: Siniora made
remarks to this effect during an al-Jazeera interview at the
Stockholm conference on August 31, saying the GOL "enjoys the
confidence of Parliament." End Note.) While Murr
anticipates the Hizballah/Aounists will direct their media
campaign against Israel and accusing March 14 of collusion,
the other side should attack the Syria/Iran axis, as Hariri
and Jumblatt have been doing.


9. (S/NF) Regarding security, the GOL should ensure there
is a sufficient LAF and ISF presence in the greater Beirut
area. Murr told the Ambassador that there are currently
18,000 LAF troops on standby in greater Beirut and urban
coastal areas. Again, state institutions alone must ensure
security. If Ja'ja' comes down the mountain with his
militiamen, warned Murr, that will divert the LAF's attention
away from securing downtown Beirut against the
Hizballah/Aounist assault. Shaking his head when the
Ambassador asked whether Ja'ja' had been smuggling arms into
Lebanon, Murr said that Ja'ja' has been buying weapons on the
local market, and could easily assemble "1,000 gangters" to
engage Hizballah and Aoun. Murr begged again for U.S.
support in obtaining needed weaponry and supplies for the LAF
and ISF from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE as soon as
possible.

THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE
--------------


10. (S/NF) Aside from arming and supplying the LAF and ISF,
Murr said that the international community needs to prop up
the Siniora government more generally. The LAF/UNIFIL
deployments and IDF withdrawal need to be completed as
quickly as possible. In addition, Lebanon needs the air and
sea blockade lifted in order to breathe a little easier and
revive the moribund economy. The widescale international
support for Lebanon's reconstruction should also continue
apace. Lastly, Murr suggested that someone from the
international community -- he suggested British Ambassador
James Watt -- communicate to Michel Aoun that if he takes
part in this plot, he can expect a complete international
diplomatic embargo on him, much like what Emile Lahoud has
suffered.


BEIRUT 00002841 003 OF 004



11. (S/NF) The Ambassador asked whether Murr could wholly
trust the LAF to support the GOL when the critical moment
comes (Comment. The coup would presumably have the support
of at least two former army chiefs, Aoun and Lahoud. End
Comment). Murr said that current army chief Michel Sleiman
"will follow my orders, or I will put him out of his post."
The Ambassador asked if the LAF chief answers only to the
President, to which Murr responded that the 1989 Ta'if
Accords gives the Council of Ministers control over the army.


BUILDING CONFIDENCE IN LAF MEASURES
--------------


12. (S/NF) The Ambassador noted that, in order to get the
Israelis to lift the air and sea blockade, the GOL needs to
convince them that it has carried out effective and credible
measures to secure all points of entry. Murr said that the
GOL had made a formal request to the German chief of staff
for maritime and border support, but that this would need the
approval of the German Cabinet and Bundestag, which may take
some time. Murr believes the Iraelis would accept this
arrangement, realizing that sophisticated technology (used
correctly),is more efficient than large numbers of troops.
Murr asked though that the Israelis not call publicly for the
German support, as this would scuttle Lebanese Cabinet
approval.


13. (S/NF) The Ambassador noted that part of the trick is
to figure out how to help the international community, and
Israel, better understand what is actually happening on the
ground. He suggested it would be useful if the Lebanese were
to offer to take a small group of UNIFIL officers on a tour
of LAF positions along the border with Syria and in the
eastern Biqa' Valley, to show off what the LAF has done so
far. "I will invite (UNIFIL Commander) Pelligrini on a
helicopter tour of the area," Murr vowed. The Ambassador
also recommended the LAF pass information to the IDF through
the UNIFIL coordination sessions which are currently ongoing
at UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura. Hearing this, Murr
immediately picked up his cell phone and called General
Shaatly, the LAF liaison with UNIFIL (and also reportedly an
AMCIT),and asked him to provide maps and information on the
Biqa' deployment to UNIFIL -- while the IDF liaison is in the
same room -- at the next coordination session on Monday,
September 4.

ROCKETS CONFISCATED
--------------


14. (S/NF) Murr said that the LAF had confiscated another
truck full of Hizballah rockets (he did not say whether these
were coming from Syria or being transported internally),
bringing the total number of rockets taken by the LAF to "90
to 100". The Ambassador asked about reports that an internal
shipment of TNT was confiscated, which Murr confirmed. He
said the TNT had belonged to Hizballah and is now being
tested to see if it is the same as was used in a spate of
terror bombings in Christian areas last year. The Ambassador
asked if this information could be shared with UNIIIC
Commissioner Serge Brammertz, which Murr said might be
possible once the GOL had completed its tests. Murr confided
that he had planted a story about the TNT confiscation in
al-Hayat newspaper. Murr said that Hizballah, unhappy with
the robust LAF measures against the group, sent a message
directly to Murr's assistant Colonel Bayseri threatening that
"a time will come for an accounting". (Note. After the
meeting, Murr pulled the Ambassador aside and whispered that
the movement of TNT within the country worries him greatly,
and he asked that the Ambassador not travel outside of the
Christian suburbs in which the Embassy is located. The
Ambassador asked Murr if he had any specific threat
information against the Embassy or Ambassador, and Murr shook
his head, commenting that it was "just a feeling." End Note.)

ASBAT AL-ANSAR
--------------


15. (S/NF) The Ambassador asked Murr about the threat from
sunni militant group Asbat al-Ansar. Murr replied that the
group is very dangerous and "fully-handled" by Syria.

BEIRUT 00002841 004 OF 004


Calling the group the "new Al-Qaeda", Murr said that Asad is
handling the Sunni militants in order to create a "new Iraq"
in Lebanon.

POTENTIAL FOR MOVEMENT ON 1949 ARMISTICE AGREEMENT
-------------- ---


16. (S/NF) The Ambassador noted that the Lebanese always
refer hopefully to the 1949 Israel-Lebanese Armistic
Agrement, while the Israelis consider the agreement null and
void (in the aftermath of the 1968 Cairo Agreement) had see
little appeal in tryign to revive it. He asked Murr for his
opinion on arranging political level discussions on the
subject, to see what might be done. Murr suggested that once
the deployment/withdrawal phase is over, and after the
November threat is thwarted, the GOL will make some suggested
revisions to the Armistice Agreement, which the U.S. can
share discreetly with the Israelis. When there is some
common ground reached, the GOL will publicly declare that it
wants to return to the 1949 Agreement, but "we want the
following items" -- already agreed to -- "included in the
agreement." As the weaker party, Murr said, Lebanon should
appear as the instigator of the parley in order to gain
approval from Lebanese. Following that, the Lebanese and
Israeli Ministers of Defense could set up a meeting on the
Blue Line and under the auspices of the UNSYG (whoever that
may be) to discuss the amendments to the Agreement.

COMMENT
--------------


17. (S/NF) Murr sometimes picks up bits of information,
combines it with accurate intelligence, considers the point
of view of his listener, and weaves a fascinating story where
the facts and the fiction nestle comfortably together. But,
while we would love to dismiss Aoun's dire predictions out of
hand, the public comments of Aoun (especially),Nasrallah,
and other pro-Syrian figures provide little comfort: they
are entirely consistent with the theory posited by Murr.
Moreover, reporting in other channels suggests that Murr's is
not simply assembling a melodramatic story in order to
frighten us into accelerating our support to the LAF. This
is a prediction worth monitoring.
FELTMAN