LEBANON: AOUN UNREPENTANT ON HIZBALLAH ALLIANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002777

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN UNREPENTANT ON HIZBALLAH ALLIANCE

REF: BEIRUT 2508

Classified By: JEFFREY D. FELTMAN, AMBASSADOR. REASON: 1.4(D)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a August 26 meeting with Representative Tom
Lantos (D-CA),Mrs. Lantos, Ambassador Feltman, senior
staffer Alan Makovsky, and poloff at his home in Rabieh, Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader and ex-General Michel Aoun
tried unconvincingly to rationalize his political alliance
with Hizballah, claiming that he was having a "temporizing"
effect on the group. "The General," as he is known among his
followers, believes that Hizballah would integrate into a
"national defense strategy" once the Sheba'a Farms and
prisoner issues are resolved. Aoun accused the March 14
group of exacerbating tensions with Hizballah, and said the
GOL is merely a tool for communication between Hizballah and
the outside world. Misunderstanding a question from Rep.
Lantos on arms smuggling, Aoun claimed that the Lebanese
could not "seal" the border with Syria since Lebanon needs to
have that outlet to the Arab world. Further, he feels that
the LAF is capable of monitoring the border by itself and
fears that if UNIFIL deploys along the frontier Syria will
respond by blockading Lebanon. END SUMMARY.

SLEEPING WITH THE DEVIL
--------------


2. (C) Rep. Lantos opened the meeting by telling Aoun that
he no longer admires the General as before, since Aoun had
made the "fundamental strategic mistake" of allying with
Hizballah (Note. The FPM and Hizballah signed a "Memorandum
of Understanding" in February of this year. End Note). To
explain his association, Aoun launched into a revisionist
history beginning with his triumphant return to Lebanon in
May 2005 (when he memorably told the assembled masses at the
airport to "shut up"). Aoun said that no one within the
March 14 movement was prepared at that time to challenge
Hizballah on its weapons. The General stood alone in asking
Hizballah to "deliver" its weapons. However, seeing that by
fall 2005 there was a deep lack of confidence between
Hizballah and the March 14-led government, and that the
militant group couldn't be disarmed by force, Aoun decided
the best prescription was to cozy up to Hizballah and
encourage it to "become more Lebanese." This led the FPM and
Hizballah to sign the MOU earlier this year.


3. (C) Looking incredulous, Rep. Lantos said that Aoun had
chosen to "sleep with the devil." Aoun, seeming unconvinced
himself, said that he has played a moderating role with
Hizballah. Among the gleaming results of this positive
effect, Aoun claims, are that Hizballah started referring to
"Israel" rather than "Occupied Palestine" (though nowadays
Hizballah refers to the southern neighbor simply as "the
enemy"),no longer says they will fight "until Jerusalem",
and has stopped claiming there are occupied Lebanese villages
in Galilee.


4. (C) Despite these semantic achievements, the Ambassador
countered, Hizballah still went ahead and kidnapped Israeli
soldiers on July 12, pitching all of Lebanon into war,
despite the MOU with Aoun. Aoun replied feebly that the MOU
was only "agreed to," never "implemented," so in this context
Hizballah's action was not a breach of trust. He mentioned
that at the last meeting of the "National Dialogue" before
the kidnappings, topics for discussion had included "who has
the authority to pull the trigger" on Hizballah operations,
but that this had not been resolved.


5. (C) Since the conflict started, Aoun claims, he has
played a role to avoid a civil war by "developing some
moderation." Claiming that Hizballah is "not as dangerous as
you think," Aoun said that the Shi'a no longer feel
disproportionately weak within Lebanon and are shifting from
"a military life to a civilian and political life."


6. (C) Aoun said that if the issues of Sheba'a Farms and
Hizballah prisoners in Israel are solved, then he believes
Hizballah's weapons could be "integrated into a National
Defense Strategy." Rep. Lantos replied that Aoun was
"insulting my intelligence" since both men know that Sheba'a

BEIRUT 00002777 002 OF 002


is a concocted excuse to rationalize the existence of an
armed state within a state. Aoun said he does not agree,
adding that there are land deeds which show that the Sheba'a
Farms are Lebanese. The Ambassador replied that, be that as
it may, the Sheba'a issue is at most a border dispute to be
resolved through diplomacy, not through unilateral action by
a militant group which is not even answerable to the Lebanese
state.

STOP REARMAMENT OF HIZBALLAH
--------------


7. (C) Rep. Lantos warned that if Hizballah is allowed to
rearm, that the tragedy recently visited upon Lebanon will
only be repeated again and again. He asked why had the GOL
not requested UNIFIL assistance in "sealing" the
Lebanese-Syrian border to arms smuggling. Aoun, who does not
speak English well, misunderstood and replied that Lebanon
could not "seal" the border since it needs an outlet for
commerce to the rest of the Middle East. Once Aoun
understood Rep. Lantos's meaning, he replied that the LAF
could monitor the border on its own, and that Syria would
consider it an "aggressive action" were UNIFIL troops to
deploy along the frontier.


8. (C) When Rep. Lantos challenged Aoun on the LAF's
readiness to handle this mission, since according to
Hizballah the LAF is not even capable of defending the South,
Aoun appeared stumped and changed the subject, complaining
that the Siniora administration is "not a real government"
and is incapable of making decisions. "We need a new
government," stated the Presidency-seeking Aoun. Rep. Lantos
warned Aoun again that the border must be blocked and
rearmament prevented. "I will do," Aoun replied vaguely.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) This was yet another depressing meeting with Aoun,
who as yet appears unwilling to question the wisdom of his
alliance with Hizballah. While in one breath Aoun complains
that the March 14 movement broke confidence with Hizballah,
driving the FPM and Hizballah closer together, he also
deludes himself into believing that the July 12 kidnappings
were not a breach of his MOU. We are stunned that Aoun does
not see that Hizballah considers the MOU not worth the paper
it is written on, except that it allows them to exploit a
Christian who, because of his personal ambitions, is
supportive of "the resistance."


10. (C) The last time we saw Aoun was on August 1 (reftel),
and since then his support has dwindled even further as
people are repelled by his blindly pro-Hizballah stance.
However, rather than deserting to other Christian parties
such as the Kata'eb or Lebanese Forces, we believe that many
Christians feel a sense of insecurity and despair about their
future in a Lebanon dominated by Hassan Nasrallah and the
Hariris (read Iran and Saudi Arabia). Seeing no other clear
Christian leader (certainly not President Lahoud) and no role
for themselves in Lebanon, Christians seem more interested
now in leaving Lebanon than in finding a leader behind whom
they might rally their still considerable numbers. If Aoun
ever sees the light and changes his stance on Hizballah, as
we so dearly wish he would do, he might yet be able to win
back followers and present a more united Christian front.


11. (U) Rep. Lantos did not have the opportunity to clear
this message.
FELTMAN