LEBANON: CODEL LANTOS CAUTIONS PM SINIORA THAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 002776

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2016
TAGS: IS LE MOPS PGOV PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: CODEL LANTOS CAUTIONS PM SINIORA THAT
GOL ALSO HAS RESPONSIBILITIES


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (b).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C/NF) When PM Siniora asked for U.S. assistance in
lifting Israel's air and sea blockade of Lebanon, Congressman
Lantos directly challenged the Prime Minister to explain what
his government was doing to ensure the secure border
provisions of UNSCR 1701 were being fully implemented. Rep.
Lantos used Siniora's argument that the LAF needed robust
security assistance to improve its capabilities as
irrefutable evidence that Lebanon's army alone could not
secure the Syrian-Lebanese land border, and capable
international forces were required along that border, at
least until the army able to perform that critical mission.
In response to PM Siniora's suggestion that the recent
conflict could provide an opportunity for a comprehensive
Middle East peace effort, Rep. Lantos strongly demurred,
stating that his long experience in dealing with Syria's
Bashar Assad, as well as his father Hafez Assad, convinced
him that neither Assad nor Iran's Ahmedijihad were sincerely
interested in such a process. Rep. Lantos advised PM Siniora
that "painful and difficult intermediate steps" were
necessary before Lebanon and the international community
could realistically entertain such a proposal. A similar
cautionary message was delivered to the Lebanese press, as
well as Minister of Economy and Trade Sami Haddad in a brief
subsequent meeting. End summary.


2. (U) Prime Minister Fouad Siniora met with Rep. Tom
Lantos (D-CA) and the Ambassador at the Grand Serail on
Saturday afternoon, August 26. Senior GOL advisors Mohammad
Chatta and Rola Nouraddine attended the meeting, as did
emboff, House International Relations Committee Senior
Staffer Alan Makovsky, HIRC Democratic Staffer Michael Beard,
and Deputy Staff Director of HIRC Republican Staff Kristen
Gilley. Mrs. Tom Lantos also attended the meeting.

MUTUAL RESPECT
--------------


3. (C/NF) Rep. Lantos expressed his admiration for the
resilience and fortitude of the Lebanese people during an
extraordinarily trying period and conveyed his hope that the
Siniora government would be able to take the difficult next
steps to ensure the recent war would be the last that Lebanon
would have to face. Rep. Lantos explained to the Prime
Minister his long and close association with Lebanon, dating
back to his first trip in 1956 and then again in 1965, when
he considered taking the position of President of the
American University of Beirut. He also reminded PM Siniora
that he was in Lebanon in early 1983, only days before 241
U.S. Marines, sent to Lebanon on an international
peacekeeping mission, were murdered by the terrorists who
currently comprise Hizballah.


4. (C/NF) PM Siniora responded that he and his countrymen
deeply appreciated the friendship toward Lebanon that Rep.
Lantos and the American people have consistently shown.
Siniora spoke of his satisfaction with the response of the
international community regarding the formation of the
enhanced UNIFIL, which he hoped would begin its deployment
within days. Siniora also spoke of his expectation for the
possibility for peace and security in the region "beyond
Lebanon's borders" and conveyed his anticipation concerning
the impending visit to Beirut by UN Secretary General Kofi
Annan on August 28.

A TRAGEDY REPEATED
--------------


5. (C/NF) When the Prime Minister stated the Lebanese
people wanted a lasting peace that would forever remove the
suffering of war from Lebanon, Rep. Lantos interjected that
that would only occur if Lebanon was able to secure its
borders. Lantos warned that if Iranian and Syrian weapons
began to cross the Syrian-Lebanese border once again, it
would be only a matter of time before the country was plunged
back into conflict, with all the human and material loss that
entailed.


6. (C/NF) PM Siniora agreed with Rep. Lantos' overall
premise, but argued that special circumstances existed in

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Lebanon that made the issue of secure borders particularly
problematic. Siniora said he understood the concern of the
international community with arms smuggling to Hizballah, but
as Prime Minister of a complex, unwieldy government, he had
to proceed within the confines of what was actually feasible.


7. (C/NF) When PM Siniora began his exposition (which he
has repeated in several other meetings) that if Shebaa Farms
could be resolved in a just manner, it would de-legitimatize
the arms of Hizballah, Rep. Lantos strongly objected and
flatly stated that if the Prime Minister was trying to frame
Shebaa as the primary cause of Lebanon's instability, he was
not being intellectually honest.

A CLASH OF VIEWS
--------------


8. (C/NF) PM Siniora pushed back, and declared that, of
course, he understood Shebaa was being used by the
Iranian/Syrian/Hizballah troika as a means to exert their
influence and promote a radical agenda in both Lebanon and
the immediate region. For that very reason, Siniora argued,
it was necessary to remove the issue from the political arena
once and for all. Addressing the Representative's
skepticism, Siniora confided that he could care less if the
United Nations, whose "temporary' custodianship he favors,
holds onto Shebaa for "100 years." Siniora emphatically
defended his notion that removal of Israeli troops from the
area was the undeniable key to disarming Iran's powerful
proxy in Lebanon -- and in the process initiating the decline
of Iranian and Syrian influence in the region.


9. (C/NF) Siniora, patiently asking for consideration of
his proposal, argued that his government was slowly, but
steadily, constricting Hizballah's room for maneuver. He
maintained that 15,000 troops of the LAF, even if lacking the
"desired level of discipline," along with the 10,000 to
15,000 international troops would essentially saturate the
former operating area of Hizballah in south Lebanon, leaving
the terrorist organization with less and less room to cause
mischief.


10. (C/NF) Once again, he asked for U.S. assistance in
addressing Shebaa, because with it, he argued, he could force
Hassan Nasrallah into a position from which he would find it
impossible to rationalize his militia and its weaponry. Rep.
Lantos reiterated his deep concern that Siniora was depending
on developments that experience indicated to him would be
foolhardy. The Congressman pressed hard that the only way to
constrain Hizballah -- and its Syrian and Iranian masters --
would be to establish a "watertight" secure land border that
would deny Hizballah and Presidents Assad and Ahmedijihad the
means to once again attack Israel, and in the process destroy
Lebanon.


11. (C/NF) Rep. Lantos urged PM Siniora to allow the
augmented UNIFIL force to fortify the LAF along the entire
Syrian-Lebanese land border until such time as an empowered
LAF could perform the difficult task on its own. Rep. Lantos
said it wasn't enough for "German technology" to be employed
along the border, for what good would it do if weapon
movements were detected, but the LAF did nothing to actually
stop them. Rep. Lantos asked for intellectual honesty with
this issue of paramount importance, because if the mission of
securing the border failed, warfare would surely break out
again -- and Lebanon and its people would suffer an even
greater tragedy.

OPPORTUNITY OR A DESERT MIRAGE
--------------


12. (C/NF) Turning from the issue of secure borders, PM
Siniora described his belief that the great losses suffered
by both sides in the war, and an apparent renewed
international commitment to pursue stability in the region,
could well lead to a new comprehensive peace initiative.
Siniora argued that Israel must now realize its security
depended on acceptance by its neighbors, and not
intermittent, but inconclusive, phases of warfare. The Prime
Minister asked for U.S. assistance in this endeavor to
finally redress long-standing grievances and initiate the
process for a comprehensive peace.


13. (C/NF) In response, Congressman Lantos explained his

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many disappointing dealings with despotic regimes, from
Syria, to Iran, to North Korea. Whether it was Hafez Assad
or his "completely untrustworthy" son Bashar, Rep. Lantos
said he was absolutely convinced they did not wish to engage
in true peace negotiations. He cautioned the Prime Minister
that "many difficult intermediate steps" were necessary
before anyone of good will could entertain notions of a
comprehensive peace in the Middle East. Lantos said he
deeply regretted the situation, but to proceed on the
assumption that either Assad or Ahmedijihad were actually
prepared to allow peace and stability to establish itself in
the region was merely wishful thinking.


14. (C/NF) He strongly advised PM Siniora to stand firm for
his democratic and pro-reform principles, and to make the
difficult decisions that would allow the international
community to effectively assist with the implementation of
UNSCR 1701. Rep. Lantos promised the Prime Minister that the
U.S. would stand behind it in each area of support --
security, humanitarian and reconstruction -- but it required
his government to likewise fulfill its considerable
responsibilities. Only in that manner, he emphasized, could
Lebanon find peace and prosperity.

SIMILAR MESSAGE TO THE ECONOMIC MINISTER
--------------


15. (C/NF) In a brief follow-on meeting with Minister of
Economy and Trade Sami Haddad, Rep. Lantos listened to the
Minister's urgent request for assistance to lift the
"incredibly damaging" blockade of Lebanon by IDF forces. As
in his discussion with PM Siniora, Rep. Lantos clearly
enunciated the responsibilities of the Lebanese government
under UNSCR 1701. Lantos unequivocally stated that, although
he wished to see the embargo "end tomorrow," the
international community was insistent that the country's
borders be sealed tight against weapons shipments to
Hizballah. Rep. Lantos agreed that Lebanon's army would be
the preferred execution agent, but until the LAF was
proficient and "so inclined," it was necessary for UNIFIL's
soldiers to perform the duties next to their LAF colleagues.


16. (C/NF) As in his earlier meeting, Rep. Lantos
maintained that Lebanon needed time to regain her balance
after decades of Syrian control, a period that had damaged
the initiative and capability of its armed forces. The
Representative urged Minister Haddad to use his influence not
only to reestablish the country's economy, but to convince
his political allies that Lebanon needed to address its
responsibilities squarely and in a timely manner. Rep.
Lantos ended the meeting after about 15 minutes.

PRESS CONFERENCE
--------------


17. (U) Rep. Lantos put the blame for the just-suspended
war squarely on Hizballah. In a straight, factual manner, he
reminded the press of the murder of 241 U.S. Marines who had
come only to help Lebanon. Rep. Lantos said the tragic loss
of life in the current war had to be laid directly at the
feet of Hassan Nasrallah's organization, and asked the
Lebanese people to ensure that such destruction would never
again take place.


18. (U) The Representative spoke about the painful lessons
the U.S. learned in the aftermath of September 11th, and
pointed out what he considers to be a parallel lesson for
Lebanon, that the country could ill-afford to lose control of
her borders to terrorists. He assured the Lebanese people of
America's full and generous support, but reminded them that
they too had to play a role and take up the responsibilities
of international citizenship.


19. (U) CODEL Lantos did not have the opportunity to clear
this cable.
FELTMAN