BERRI CRITICAL OF BASHAR'S SPEECH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 002697

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS SY IS
SUBJECT: BERRI CRITICAL OF BASHAR'S SPEECH

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4(d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In an August 18 meeting with Ambassador Feltman and
poloff, Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament Nabih Berri hailed
the deployment of the Lebanese armed forces (LAF) south of
the Litani River. The longtime leader of the Shi'a Amal
party and a reluctant political ally of Hizballah, Berri
cautioned that the Government of Lebanon (GOL) must launch a
serious and immediate reconstruction effort, preferably
through the vehicle of the Berri-controlled Council for the
South. Otherwise, no one can really blame Hizballah for
filling the vacuum left by government inaction (for example,
by offering cash handouts to those whose homes were destroyed
in the fighting). Deeply critical of Bashar al-Asad's August
15 speech, which he described as "stupid," Berri said that
the Syrian leadership should try and be more supportive of
the GOL and Lebanese unity. Seeming blithely unaware that
Syria may already be rearming Hizballah, Berri demanded of
the Ambassador that the ports and airports be reopened
immediately. Berri added that any monitoring mechanism to
block arms smuggling was something for the GOL to discuss
with the UN, and not with the U.S. or Israel. Berri's senior
foreign policy adviser Ali Hamdan also attended the meeting.
END SUMMARY.

HAPPY WITH LAF DEPLOYMENT
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2. (C) Berri described the LAF deployment to the South as
"very, very, very big," noting that the army had not been in
the region in any effective force since 1969. When the
Ambassador asked if Berri had ridden into the South on the
first LAF jeep, as he had promised he would do, Berri laughed
and said he had done much more than that just in working to
bring about a consensus for the deployment. Calling the
decision by some March 14 ministers to press for immediate
Hizballah disarmament a "big mistake," a clearly worn-out
Berri said he had worked "very hard" over the last few days
to mend the rift.

NEED TO REBUILD
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3. (C) When the Ambassador noted that Hassan Nasrallah is
making Hizballah out to be more powerful than the state,
offering $10-12,000 cash to every family that lost a home
destroyed in the war and sending in bulldozers flying
Hizballah flags, Berri exclaimed, "Tell that to Siniora, not
to me." He said he has been trying to get Siniora to discuss
the rebuilding effort, noting that the reconstruction
establishment -- including money sieves like the Council for
the South, suspected to have funded numerous shopping
excursions for Berri's wife Randa -- is already in place.
All that's required now is a plan and someone to communicate
it to the Lebanese people. "What we need is a declaration to
the nation from Siniora. If only Siniora could do what
Nasrallah did."


4. (C) Berri said that Siniora asked him for a cost
estimate for the reconstruction of southern villages, and
promised to give him a cheque to cover it (Comment. This
surprised us, as it would not be in keeping with the usually
tight-fisted Siniora, a former Minister of Finance. End
Comment). Noting that Amal MP Ali Hassan Khalil is meeting
with Siniora also on 8/18 to further discuss the rebuilding
effort, Berri said that there is still time to beat Hizballah
to the punch on rebuilding. Hizballah, Berri claimed, has
not actually begun handing out the promised cash, but has
initially set up a "committee to assess statistics" and
process claims. (Note. Though Lebanese television on 8/18
claimed that the handouts have begun. End Note.)


5. (C) Remarking that "people will remember who put the
roof over their heads," Berri wants to convince Siniora of
his scheme for rebuilding houses in the southern villages.
Berri said it is more important to rebuild in the South
first, rather than the Beirut suburbs, otherwise people from
the destroyed southern villages will migrate permanently to
the cities. Berri's plan is to give each family which lost

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its home in the war $9,000-$11,000 to pay for rent and
furniture for a year. The GOL, through the vehicle of the
Council for the South, would meanwhile begin building
hundreds of 200-square meter homes in the southern villages.
Essentially, these would be "starter homes," with the
families then responsible for later expansion. Future
tenants could then repay the government for the homes in
installments -- at $200 per square meter, Berri estimates the
cost of each home at $40,000. An alternative to this plan,
said Berri, would be to ship in pre-fabricated housing. Berri
cautioned that the GOL would need to get moving on his plan
immediately since, with the onset of winter in two months'
time, "it will turn into a bigger catastrophe."


6. (C) Touching briefly on the Beirut southern suburbs,
Berri said these pose another "big problem," estimating that
at least 100 large apartment blocks were completely destroyed
by the bombing. Berri told the Ambassador that the Kuwaiti
Khorrafi family (NFI) will establish a non-profit
organization to rebuild the suburbs, while noting that Saudi
Arabia has committed $500 million and Kuwait a further $300
million for reconstruction. Also, Berri said that the UAE
will soon announce that it intends to rebuild all of the
schools in the South, as well as the hospitals of Bint Jbeil
and Meiss al-Jebel and the port at Ouzai, and provide
assistance with humanitarian demining (which the UAE has
helped with previously in Lebanon, with success).

"BASHAR HAS DONE A MISTAKE"
--------------


7. (C) Describing Bashar al-Asad's belligerent 8/15 speech
as "stupid and unbelievable," Berri criticized conspicuous
Syrian attempts to interfere in Lebanon. Berri said he had
only just spoken with Syrian Vice President Farouq Al-Shara
on the evening of 8/14, and had in fact thanked Shara for his
"low-key" approach in saying that Syria supported the GOL
decision on UNSCR 1701. This made Bashar's bombastic speech
-- with its proclamations of treachery and civil war in
Lebanon -- all the more astonishing to Berri. "Bashar has
done a mistake," said Berri in his broken English, adding,
"It is stupid. Now people forgot all about the Israelis."

GETTING THE SIEGE LIFTED
--------------


8. (C) Claiming that it is "the job" of the USG to "tell
the Israelis to lift the siege on ports and airports," Berri
said that this is a clear obligation under UNSCR 1701. The
Ambassador replied that the GOL needs to do more to put
effective monitoring mechanisms in place first, since this is
also called for in the resolution. Letting down his guard a
bit, Berri commented that he has both a private and a
political opinion on the matter. His private opinion is that
"when the U.S. stops giving bombs to Israel, then you can
demand that we block the arms." Acknowledging though that
his private opinion is not GOL policy, he said that his
political opinion is that the GOL needs to be able to apply
UNSCR 1701, and in order to have the siege lifted needs to
put some measures in place at points of entry. However, he
stressed, it is not the GOL's obligation to tell the Israelis
or anyone else besides the UN about what exactly it is doing
on monitoring.


9. (C) Nevertheless, Berri did share with the Ambassador
some of the changes at Rafiq Hariri Beirut International
Airport (BIA). Noting with some annoyance that "I was not
consulted on these changes," Berri remarked that the LAF had
been replaced by the Hariri-affiliated Internal Security
Forces (ISF) in overseeing airport security. In addition,
with the blessing of the March 14 movement, a coordinating
committee has been established to manage all BIA security,
including both passenger and cargo flights, and is headed by
Yasser Mahmoud, a Druze. All of these changes, Berri noted,
have sidelined the current BIA chief and known
Hizballah-sympathizer Wafiq Shuqair. Berri asked if this was
not enough to get BIA reopened, complaining that the initial
8/17 Middle East Airlines and Royal Jordanian Airlines
flights from Amman to Beirut had been a mere "back-patting
exercise" and photo op.


10. (C) Berri was astonished at rumors that resupply of

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weapons to Hizballah from Syria may have already begun, even
via regular highways. Seeming genuinely puzzled, Berri
asked, "Why doesn't the government just send the LAF there or
set up roadblocks?" He also suggested that "Kofi needs to go
to Damascus and Tehran" to get at the source of the problem.
Ultimately, Berri believes that the border can be controlled
by deploying the LAF and ISF, but that if the GOL needs
further support, "we will go to UNIFIL."

COMMENT
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11. (C/NF) Though not all of what Berri said was entirely
clear to us, especially regarding his reconstruction plan,
his comments on the Bashar speech are enlightening and
refreshing coming from him. Though we didn't raise the issue
of President Lahoud with him, we would like to hope that he
is contemplating the removal of Lahoud, the most prominent
symbol of Syria's bullying interference in Lebanon (and
someone of whom Berri is quite disdainful). There would be
dividends for Berri too, since changing the President would
remove a key protector of Hizballah and would allow for
reform of the LAF now deployed in the strongly-Hizballah
South, which was once Amal territory.


12. (C/NF) A savvy political operator, Berri would not miss
a chance to take down his devout Shi'a colleagues -- if he
thought he would win. Until he knows he can beat Hizballah,
though, he is likely to maintain the Shia solidarity
alliance, even thought that very alliance marginalizes him in
comparison to the position of Hassan Nasrallah. During the
Israeli-Hizballah fighting, Berri's leading role was
restored, as Siniora and others turned to Berri for a sense
of what the Shia street (and Hizballah) would do. Berri
clearly craves using reconstruction funds to maintain his
revived position, but we doubt the green eye shade-wearing
Siniora would willing turn over donor funds to Berri to
manage.
FELTMAN