LEBANON: PEDERSEN SAYS NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002683

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2016
TAGS: MOPS PREL PTER LE SY IS
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PEDERSEN SAYS NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO
CONFRONT HIZBALLAH


Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4(d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C/NF) The Ambassador and poloff met with the UNSYG's
Personal Representative for Lebanon Geir Pedersen and UN
Senior Political Affairs Officer Salman Shaikh on Augest 16
for a frank discussion over lunch at the Ambassador's
residence. (Note: Pedersen asked that his comments be kept
very close hold. End Note.) Pedersen stressed that the
March 14 movement is making a mistake in openly confronting
Hizballah about its weapons now, and should instead be
concentrating on the important "Phase One" of deploying the
LAF to the South in conjunction with UNIFIL-plus. He agreed
with the Ambassador that GOL action on the monitoring of
ports, airports and border crossings to block arms smuggling
should not be delayed by PM Siniora, even if it means forcing
the issue with Hizballah now. Noting with concern the
threats against March 14 movement members, Pedersen said that
Marwan Hamadeh would be leaving Lebanon for a short stay in
Paris until things calm down. Pedersen added that Terje
Roed-Larsen would arrive in Lebanon on August 18, and that
SYG Annan may come on August 25. End Summary.

UNIFIL-PLUS DEPLOYMENT MOVING AHEAD
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2. (C) Pedersen said that the Lebanese Armed Forcs (LAF)
and Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) held a second meeting on
8/16 at UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura, and would have
another the following day. According to Pedersen, the lead
UNIFIL-plus contingent of French troops would arrive in the
southern Lebanon on August 21. Although Lebanese Defense
Minister Murr has been feeding UNIFIL some exaggerated
numbers, including that the LAF would be moving "400 tanks"
to the South, Pedersen sensed that the GOL is committed to
the deployment. (Note: The Cabinet approved the deployment
on the evening of 8/16. End Note.)

LEAVE THE ARMS UNTIL LATER
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3. (C/NF) Pedersen lamented that some March 14 Cabinet
ministers viewed the implementation of UNSCR 1701 as "a
sprint rather than a marathon," and that some ministers -- he
mentioned Nayla Mouawad by name -- had not even bothered to
read the resolution text carefully enough to realize "it's
not about disarmament in the immediate term." The March 14
group, instead of concentrating on the historically
significant step of a successful LAF deployment in the South
up to the border, where it has not been in control in over 30
years, were focused on fomenting a confrontation with
Hizballah over disarmament. Pedersen said he had spoken to
his Hizballah contact, Wafiq Safaa, just before the lunch and
had received his assurance that GOL authority would be
respected in the South even if the group keeps its arms.
Pedersen, perhaps overly-confident in Hizballahi assurances,
proclaimed this as "a huge step."


4. (C) Pedersen said the resolution focuses on getting the
LAF and UNIFIL-plus into the South, and the Israelis out, and
only deals with disarmament of militias secondarily. He
argued that a confrontation with Hizballah now over
disarmament threatened to cause a collapse of the government,
which would scuttle the whole deal. Pedersen said he has
been shuttling around Beirut advising March 14 members to
keep quiet about disarmament for now, urging them instead to,
"Get the army to deploy first. Don't lose this opportunity."


5. (C) Pedersen stressed that disarmament is not of primary
moment, and said that stopping arms smuggling is an
unambigous, central and immediate obligation in UNSCR 1701,
and that the Israelis will not be expected to fully lift the
blockade until the GOL has an effective monitoring mechanism
in place at ports, airports, and border points. Pedersen
assured the Ambassador that he is driving this point home in
all of his meetings with the Lebanese. In this context, PM
Siniora's decision to replace the army with the
Hariri-controlled Internal Security Forces at some parts of
the airport is an important first step, though the airport is
still under the nominal control of a known Hizballah
sympathizer. Aware that the issue of getting international

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support to monitor the Lebanese-Syrian border might well
provoke the early "confrontation" with Hizballah that he
seeks to avoid, Pedersen said that nevertheless the smuggling
issue has to be dealt with now.

HAMADEH SHOULD "GET OUT"
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6. (C/NF) Telling the Ambassador to "be careful," Pedersen
said he is worried about security conditions in Lebanon. He
met with Marwan Hamadeh on the morning of 8/16 and described
Hamadeh as "shaken" by the recent article -- tantamount to a
death threat -- claiming he had passed information via
Ambassador Feltman to the Israelis on the whereabouts of
Hassan Nasrallah. Pedersen thinks Hamadeh should "get out"
of Lebanon for a spell, and claimed that Hamadeh will be
leaving for Paris soon for a two-week respite. (Note:
Hamadeh, seeming far from "shaken," held an impassioned press
conference on the evening of 8/16 at which he responded to
Bashar al-Asad's threatening 8/15 speech, and said that the
Lebanese would fight Syrian influence through "writing and
speaking," and not through "car bombs and intelligence
networks." End Note.)

TERJE ON HIS WAY
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7. (C) Pedersen said that the UNSYG's Special
Representative for UNSCR 1559 implementation Terje
Roed-Larsen will arrive in Beirut on the evening of 8/18 and
will meet with PM Siniora, Speaker Berri, Defense Minister
Elias Murr, and LAF Commander General Michel Sleiman. (Note:
The Ambassador will dine with Larsen on 8/18. End note.)
Larsen also plans to travel to Israel, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
and Egypt to shore up regional support for Lebanon. Pedersen
added that the initial report on UNSCR 1701, due on 8/18,
will say simply that LAF/UNIFIL-plus deployment is moving
ahead and that the UNSYG is further studying the situation.
Pedersen said that SYG Annan plans to travel to Lebanon on
8/25 and, at this point, intends also to go to Damascus.
FELTMAN