Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BEIRUT2578
2006-08-09 08:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

LEBANON: AMIN GEMAYEL SEEKS COORDINATED STRATEGY

Tags:  MOPS PREL PTER LE SY IS 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002578

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2016
TAGS: MOPS PREL PTER LE SY IS
SUBJECT: LEBANON: AMIN GEMAYEL SEEKS COORDINATED STRATEGY
TO WEAKEN HIZBALLAH

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002578

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2016
TAGS: MOPS PREL PTER LE SY IS
SUBJECT: LEBANON: AMIN GEMAYEL SEEKS COORDINATED STRATEGY
TO WEAKEN HIZBALLAH

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In an August 8 meeting with the Ambassador and
poloff, Kata'eb Party leader and former President Amin
Gemayel discussed what should follow a cease=fire in the
current conflict with Israel. Gemayel is frustrated that the
Maronite Presidency has been sidelined during Emile Lahoud's
tenure, and he hopes to expose corruption within the Lahoud
family in order to force the President to leave office. He
also believes that there needs to be a coordinated strategy
among the Lebanese and international players to "hold
Hizballah accountable" for provoking the destruction of
Lebanon and to "reverse the perception" in the Arab-Muslim
street that Hizballah is the victor in this conflict.
Gemayel thinks that Hizballah can also be weakened through
strengthening the moderate Shi'a element, including Nabih
Berri's Amal party and third-way Shi'a. Gemayel said the
Kata'eb is looking to form alliances with these groups. End
Summary.

"WE HAVE TO BE PART OF THE KITCHEN"
--------------


2. (C/NF) Gemayel expressed his annoyance that President
Lahoud did not attend the Cabinet session on August 7 which
voted unanimously for the LAF deployment to the South.
Lahoud has been left out of the game entirely during this
conflict and, by his inaction, is reducing the Maronite
Presidency to irrelevance. "We have to be part of the
kitchen," exclaimed Gemayel, while urging that a means be
found to remove Lahoud from Baabda Palace following a
cease-fire. Gemayel urged that Lahoud's most vulnerable
point is his son, Emile Emile, who is implicated in
money-laundering and the Oil For Food scandal. If damning
evidence could be found on Emile Emile, argued Gemayel, the
father may be forced to step down.


3. (C) Gemayel claimed he does not envision a workable
constitutional process for replacing Lahoud before his term
ends in November 2007. While bringing Berri and his Amal
bloc into the anti-Lahoud camp - "I'm sure Berri doesn't like

Lahoud" - would in theory provide the two-thirds
parliamentary majority needed to remove a sitting President,
Gemayel thinks it will be difficult to liberate Berri from
Hizballah's - and, by extension, Syria's - influence in the
Parliament. "Berri will play the Hizballah game for some
months."

"MR. NASRALLAH, YOU DESTROYED YOUR COUNTRY"
--------------


4. (C) Regarding how to launch an effective challenge to
Hizballah's certain intention to claim victory after a
ceasefire, Gemayel argued for a two-pronged approach,
coordinated in advance between the Lebanese and the
international community, weakening Hizballah while
strengthening other parties and Lebanese government
institutions. Gemayel said that the Druze and the Christians
would be out front in holding Hizballah, and specifically
Nasrallah, publicly accountable for dragging Lebanon through
weeks of war. "That is where we can win the battle, to say:
'Mr. Nasrallah, you destroyed your country.'" Gemayel said
that PM Siniora is on board with this strategy but that he
could not be as outspoken in his criticism since he has to
maintain the Cabinet's integrity and also does not want to
exacerbate Sunni-Shi'a tensions. Gemayel also asked for
continued USG support in spreading this message through the
media and in helping to support the March 14 movement and to
develop GOL institutions.


5. (C) Gemayel said the "coordinated strategy of
communication," mostly using the media, would also combat the
Arab-Muslim perception, fostered by Hizballah propaganda,
that the group's ability to hold out so long against the IDF
was a "victory." Gemayel noted that Israel has so far
mobilized only 25,000 troops and that it has clearly held
back from a full-scale invasion, while he claimed Hizballah
has lost 70 percent of its physical strength. The principal
Hizballah strongholds - the South, Baalbek, and the southern
suburbs - have all suffered severe damage. "It hasn't a

BEIRUT 00002578 002 OF 002

victory. It was a disaster. We need to reverse the
perception."

BUILDING RELATIONS WITH MODERATE SHI'A
--------------


6. (C) If this strategy were to succeed in weakening
Hizballah, Gemayel said that moderate Shi'a parties,
including Berri's Amal, need to be able to step in to fill
the vacuum. Gemayel plans to work on splitting Berri away
from Hizballah, and will recruit other Shi'a moderates to
help him. Gemayel said he will meet later this week with
Shi'a leaders to discuss alternatives to Hizballah. In
addition, Kata'eb members met with Amal on August 7 to
coordinate assistance to refugees, a mechanism which Gemayel
hopes to continue and perhaps formalize into a political
concord. He suggested this might even be an avenue for
providing U.S. assistance to the South.

THE STATE OF MARONITE POLITICS
--------------


7. (C) Asked about the rumours that Free Patriotic Movement
leader Michel Aoun is losing many of his supporters due to
his pro-Hizballah stance, Gemayel lamented the fact that many
of General Aoun's supporters are former Kata'eb party
faithful who defected from the party during its days in the
wilderness from 1989 through 2005, when Gemayel finally took
back control of the party. Syria effectively controlled the
party during that time, putting a stooge in charge whose sole
task was to run the party into the ground, according to
Gemayel. Gemayel is having trouble attracting people back
into the Kata'eb fold. He admitted that the party's coffers
are empty, making it difficult to get out and win back
supporters. Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement and Samir Ja'ja's
Lebanese Forces, meanwhile, are both flush with cash,
according to Gemayel.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) A member of the Christian grouping in the March 14
movement, Gemayel's desire to reach out to moderate Shi'a is
a positive development and a creative bit of Lebanese
confessional alliance-building. Once again, another
influential figure, this time Amine Gemayel, is viewing Nabih
Berri as a pivotal personality in Lebanese politics for and
any post-ceasefire period. If Gemayel and the other March 14
members can indeed cultivate Berri's Amal party and moderate
Shi'a as an alternative to Hizballah, while also launching a
media blitz against Hizballah's irresponsible adventurism and
the destruction wrought by it, perhaps these parties can
entice Lebanese Shi'a popular support away from Hizballah.
No doubt Nabih Berri, who hates Hizballah perhaps more than
any other Lebanese politician but relies on their electoral
support in the South, would be happy to escape from the
Hizballah fold. End Comment.
FELTMAN