TFLE01: INCENSED BY ISRAELI TARGETING OF LAF,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002413

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING
LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2016
TAGS: PREL MOPS PTER ASEC CASC LE FR
SUBJECT: TFLE01: INCENSED BY ISRAELI TARGETING OF LAF,
FRENCH AMBASSADOR WORRIES THAT ENEMIES OF LEBANESE
SOVEREIGNTY WILL SPLIT FRANCE AND UNITED STATES

BEIRUT 00002413 001.2 OF 002

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S/NF) While acknowledging that there was something not
quite right abotu the activities at the Jamhour military
base, French Ambassador Emie described recent Israeli strikes
on Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) facilities as "unbelievable."
If the Israeli campaign was going to continue along these
lines, it was all the more reason to evacuate French
nationals from Lebanon, he said. While the "March 14"
coalition appears to have pinned its hopes on the Israelis
clipping Hizballah's wings, Emie doubted that this campaign
could do it. He expressed foreboding of Hizballah raising
its prestige further with more rocket attacks on Israel,
while the enemies of Lebanese sovereignty managed to split
the United States and France in the UN Security Council. He
predicted that, unless the UNSC could react to the growing
crisis soon, France would "take its own initiatives" in the
Council, which even Emie admitted would be a victory for
Hizballah and Syria. End summary.

DESTROY THE ARMY, DESTROY THE STATE
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2. (S/NF) In a brief call that the Ambassador made on French
Ambassador Bernard Emie on the afternoon of July 18, Emie
described that morning's Israeli attack on an LAF engineering
unit in Jamhour (near the Defense Ministry) as
"unbelievable." Israel needed to be told clearly that "if
you destroy the army, you destroy the state," he said. "Do
they want to give the country to Iran, Syria, Hizballah?"
Emie expressed deep concern that the LAF, which had for the
most part not responded to Israeli attacks, would be
encouraged to side with Hizballah.


3. (S/NF) Emie said he had spoken earlier that day with a
"shocked" LAF commander, General Michel Suleiman. Suleiman,
who was "shaken but very reasonable," had told Emie that the
LAF would not fire any shots in anger unless it was attacked
again. The Ambassador told Emie that there was some
information that the personnel or unit in question had
questionable activities and might have facilitated Hizballah
attacks. Emie agreed there was "something fishy" about
Jamhour, but he nevertheless thought that the risks to
Lebanon were too great for additional attacks against the
LAF.

EVACUATION CONCERNS
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4. (S/NF) If the Israeli air campaign continued along the
same lines as seen earlier today, Emie continued, there was
all the more reason to evacuate from Lebanon, and fast. He
was "very worried" about the security environment for
large-scale evacuations if more Israeli strikes on civilians,
infrastructure, and the LAF took place. "They will shoot at
us," he said.


5. (S/NF) Emie agreed with the Ambassador that an immediate
cease-fire would leave Hizballah as the winner. This would
be "a disaster," he said, but it would at least give the
Lebanese people a breathing space. While the "March 14"
coalition led by Saad Hariri appears to want Israel to "do
the dirty work" when it comes to disarming Hizballah, the
Israeli campaign, should it continue along the same lines,
would not succeed in doing so. At the same time, Hizballah's
ability to bombard Israel with its own rockets only raised
its prestige further. The future was frightening, Emie said.

DANGER OF U.S.-FRENCH SPLIT ON UNSC
--------------


6. (S/NF) Emie expected France, in the "days to come," to
take the initiative in the UN Security Council for a
resolution on the current situation. He was extremely
concerned about the low prospects that the United States and
France would be able to reach agreement on such a resolution.
It would be a "wonderful victory" for the enemies of
Lebanese sovereignty if they managed to divide the United

BEIRUT 00002413 002.2 OF 002

States and France over Lebanon, Emie said.
FELTMAN