MGLE01: INDEPENDENT SHIA POLITICIAN SAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 002272

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2016
TAGS: IR IS LE PGOV PTER SNAR SY
SUBJECT: MGLE01: INDEPENDENT SHIA POLITICIAN SAYS
HIZBALLAH RATCHETING DOWN TENSIONS IN BIQA VALLEY


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C/NF) In a late June meeting with econoff, independent
Shia politician Ali Sabra Hamadeh reported that Hizballah has
been cooling down its rhetoric in the Biqa Valley during the
past three months. It seems the very confessional tensions
that Hizballah has been working to inspire since the Hariri
assassination have grown to concern Hizballah officials.
Hamadeh viewed the June 1 riots as an example of anger in the
Shia community, which had reacted with some violence in
response to the LBCI television station airing a parody of
Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. Hamadeh also
reported that Shia hatred of the U.S. was high, and
speculated that a military strike on Iran's nuclear weapons
program would result in violence in Lebanon. In the Biqa
Valley, Hizballah was working to join and take over a grass
roots "pardon council" seeking to nullify some 33,000
outstanding arrest warrants. End summary.

HIZBALLAH COOLING THE
VERY FLAMES IT FANNED
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2. (C/NF) In late June, econoff met with Ali Sabra Hamadeh,
an independent Shia politician in the Biqa Valley and
unsuccessful parliamentary candidate in 2005. Hamadeh, an
opponent of Hizballah, said the party has been pulling back
from it rhetorical offensive for about three months.
Hizballah appeared to be concerned that the confessional
tensions it inspired among the Shia were getting too high.
Prior to the cooldown of the past three months, local
Hizballah officials had been holding "war meetings" in the
small villages of the Biqa Valley, according to Hamadeh. The
purpose was nominally to prepare Shia localities in the event
of confessional conflict, but the meetings degenerated into
several hours of hate. The Shia citizens stood up and
described Sunnis and Christians with strong curse words under
the patronage of local Hizballah officials. Some even
shouted: "We will kill them all!"


3. (C/NF) Hamadeh said that, in this context, he was not
surprised by the June 1 riots in Beirut. Most Shia reacted
to the riot by blaming LBCI for airing the parody of
Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in the first
place, according to Hamadeh. Most simply said that LBCI
should not have aired the program.


4. (C/NF) Hamadeh reported that hatred for the U.S. remains
high in the Shia community. Hizballah has persuaded most
Shia that the USG is responsible for the confessional
tensions in Lebanon and in Iraq. When econoff asked if the
USG got any credit in the Shia community for overthrowing the
Shia-hating Taliban in Afghanistan and the Shia-murdering
Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Hamadeh replied that for most it is
not a rational decision to hate the U.S. Lebanon is a
rhetorical society, so words speak louder than actions, he
explained. Hamadeh speculated that a U.S. or Israeli
military strike on Iran's nuclear weapons program would lead
to violence in Lebanon, possibly against the U.S. Embassy.

HIZBALLAH CO-OPTING
ALL IN THE BIQA VALLEY
--------------


5. (C/NF) According to Hamadeh, Hizballah's latest
initiative in the Biqa Valley is to co-opt a grass roots
"pardon council." This pardon council of Biqa Valley
citizens wants to erase some 33,000 outstanding arrest
warrants in the Biqa Valley, some pre-dating the Syrian
withdrawal. The warrants are for a range of offenses,
including hashish farming. Hizballah does not condone the
offenses or criminality, and is not involved in the drug
trade, according to Hamadeh. He explained Hizballah's
attempts to get involved and co-opt the pardon council as
making sure that there were no Shia political movements in
the Biqa Valley outside of Hizballah. Most of the arrest
warrants are for Shia Muslims. Hizballah currently holds a
near-monopoly on Shia politics in the Biqa Valley, even to
the exclusion of the Amal Movement.
FELTMAN