MGLE01: SUNNI MARCH 14 PARLIAMENTARIAN COMMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001994

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016
TAGS: KISL LE PGOV
SUBJECT: MGLE01: SUNNI MARCH 14 PARLIAMENTARIAN COMMENTS
ON HARIRI'S LEADERSHIP STYLE

REF: BEIRUT 1037

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Christopher W. Murray. Reason: Sectio
n 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a June 14 meeting with econoff and FSN political
specialist, MP Mosbah Ahdab, a moderate Sunni from Tripoli,
provided his insight into the personality and leadership
style of MP Sa'ad Hariri. Ahdab described Hariri as likable
and a "good guy." Ahdab blamed Hariri's inexperience and a
circle of bad advisers for Hariri's periodic slips. He named
Hani Hammoud as the worst adviser. Hariri is open to taking
appointments with MP's in the March 14 coalition, but uses
the meetings to promise good things without giving specifics.
According to Ahdab, the March 14 caucus is completely
disorganized. There is no "majority whip" to coordinate
actions. Ahdab, who is from Tripoli, was particularly
critical of what he saw as Hariri's neglect of Tripoli.
Hariri seems to have left the Tripoli file completely in the
hands of Minister of Public Works Mohammad Safadi -- who is
not even loyal to Hariri -- while ignoring his own Sunni
allies in Tripoli. End summary.

SA'AD A "GOOD GUY"
--------------


2. (C/NF) During an official visit to Akkar and Tripoli on
June 14 (septel),econoff and FSN political specialist met
with MP Mosbah Ahdab, a moderate Sunni and member of the
Hariri-led March 14 coalition. Over lunch, Ahdab shared his
perspective on March 14 leader MP Saad Hariri and his
leadership style. Regarding Hariri's personality, Ahdab
repeatedly said that he liked Hariri and described him as a
"good guy."


3. (C/NF) Ahdab continued, however, that Hariri has been
ineffective as a leader. Ahdab expressed doubts that the
March 14 majority in parliament could hold together until
President Emile Lahoud's term expires in November 2007. The
coalition is splintering and Hariri is either doing nothing
to stop it or taking the wrong actions. He blamed Hariri's
ineffectiveness not only on his inexperience, but also on the
bad advice he receives from his inner circle of advisers. In
particular, adviser Hani Hammoud is leading Hariri astray,
according to Ahdab. Asked if Hariri could develop as a
leader if he received better advice, Ahdab replied: "I hope
he can learn."


4. (C/NF) Ahdab conceded that Hariri is open to meeting
with any MP in the March 14 coalition. Ahdab has no trouble
getting an appointment with Hariri. However, the meetings
are pointless. Hariri tends to promise good things and is
very confident about his ability to achieve what he promises.
But Hariri never seems to get into specifics. Hariri, when
challenged on his strategy or chances of success, merely
looks at the ceiling and says, "Oh, what a country this is."
Ahdab commented that Hariri, underneath his overconfident
exterior, is actually very anxious and worried.

A DISORGANIZED CAUCUS
--------------


5. (C/NF) Although Hariri is open to accepting appointment
requests, he does not ask other MPs for meetings or solicit
their opinions, according to Ahdab. Other MPs always have to
take the initiative if a meeting is to take place. Hariri is
not close to any of the MPs in the march 14 majority. He
keeps his distance and relies almost entirely on his own
advisers. (See reftel for Ahdab's comments on Hariri's links
to Saudi Arabia.) In parliament, there is no caucus
leadership for the March 14 coalition. With no "majority
whip," there is total disorganization among the majority.
Ahdab cited the example of parliamentary exchanges with
European countries. Hariri does not have a strategy on who
to send where. Instead, he asks: "Who wants a free trip to
Paris?" The MPs who volunteer have more interest in shopping
than in building support in the international community.
They usually squander the opportunities afforded by the trip,
according to Ahdab.

CAVALIER ATTITUDE TOWARDS TRIPOLI
--------------

BEIRUT 00001994 002 OF 002




6. (C/NF) Ahdab sensed that Hariri did not seem to care
about Tripoli and his constituents there. Hariri had not
delivered any new development assistance to Lebanon's second
largest city, despite the city's role in ensuring a March 14
majority in parliament. Ahdab considered that Hariri
subverted all northern Sunni and their representatives to
Minister of Transport and Public Works Mohammad Safadi.
Hariri listens only to Safadi on Tripoli-related issues even
though Safadi is not loyal to Hariri. Safadi is more of an
independent (and possible aspirant for the position of Prim
Minister),who was lured into the Siniora cabinet with a
ministerial offer. Ahdab said that Safadi is openly
undermining Hariri by getting closer to Aoun. Safadi has
done nothing to quell rumors that he could be a prime
minister under an Aoun presidency, according to Ahdab. At
the same time, Hariri does not solicit or seem to care about
the viewpoints of his truest allies in Tripoli, such as
Ahdab. Hariri did not even call Ahdab when, in May, Ahdab's
security guard shot at his house while his family was inside
the residence.
MURRAY