MGLE01: POTENTIAL REQUEST TO UNIIIC TO EXAMINE

S E C R E T BEIRUT 001963

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/WERNER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2026
TAGS: PREL PTER KCRM PGOV LE SY IS
SUBJECT: MGLE01: POTENTIAL REQUEST TO UNIIIC TO EXAMINE
ALLEGATIONS OF ISRAELI INVOLVEMENT IN MAJZOUB KILLINGS

Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S/NF) Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense
Elias Murr claimed that the evidence is "very strong" that
Israel, using local agents, was behind the 5/26 car bombing
that killed the Majzoub brothers (PIJ activists and Lebanese
citizens) in Sidon. Murr described what he believes was a
sophisticated, widespread Israeli targetting effort using
high tech methods (that, frankly, struck us as a bit too
James Bond-like). He believes that the two witnesses now in
custody will lead to the discovery of more Israeli-hatched
plots, including regarding assassinations that took place
years ago. Lamenting that Israel seemed to be helping
Hizballah, Murr argued that the Majzoub killings reinforced
the arguments that Lebanon needs a "resistance." Murr
expressed particular worry that the GOL would be forced by
Hizballah and the pro-Syrians to ask the UNIIIC for technical
assistance in examining the Majzoub deaths. This risked
making some or all of the previous 15 attacks (including
Rafiq Hariri's murder) appear to be Israeli-directed.
Separately, UN Rep Geir Pedersen told us that he, too, was
worried on this point: both GOL officials and Hizballah
representatives were already asking him whether the UNIIIC
would dare reject a request for help in the Majzoub killings.
End summary.

AN ATTACK WORTHY OF JAMES BOND
--------------


2. (S) In a one-on-one meeting with the Ambassador on 6/14,
Murr said that, based on "very strong" evidence, he was
nearly convinced that Israel had, using sophisticated
techniques and local surveillance, killed the PIJ activist
"Abu Hamze" Majzoub and his brother in Sidon on 5/26. Two
Lebanese suspects in LAF G-2 (military intelligence) custody
had confessed to the crime, and the G-2 recovered much
evidence. The investigation is still on-going, and "who
knows?" where it will lead, Murr said.


3. (S) Perhaps demonstrating his knack for hyperbole, Murr
said that two vehicles had been prepared in Israel to carry
out the operation, with pieces smuggled across the Blue Line
via Ghajjar. One vehicle had a specially equipped door made
in Israel, complete with a transmitting device, an explosive
device, and a closed-circuit camera. Packed with explosives,
this car was parked outside the Majzoub residence in Sidon.
A van was parked about 1000 meters away, out of the line of
sight. This van was outfitted to receive the television
images and transmit signals to an overhead, circling Israeli
plane. When those in the van saw by the television footage
that the Majzoub brothers were approaching the booby-trapped
car, they transmitted verification to the plane. The
Israelis in the plane used signals to detonate the car bomb.
Murr could not explain to the Ambassador why such James
Bond-like techniques were required, when the operation could
have been accomplished via the van and without the plane.


4. (S) Murr said that a raid on the suspects' homes turned
up much more evidence, including side tables with encrypted
computers hidden in the framing that could be used to
transmit and receive messages from Israel. There were hidden
maps and documents that linked the plotters to Israel. Murr
shook his head when the Ambassador asked whether such
evidence could be planted or invented; "I doubt it," he said,
citing the amount of material recovered. Murr said that he
expected more arrests and the discovery of additional plots.
Most likely, he said, previously unsolved assassinations
"from years ago" would now be understood.

G-2, NOT HIZBALLAH, RESPONSIBLE
FOR PROGRESS IN SOLVING THE CASE
--------------


5. (S) The Ambassador said that it struck him as too
convenient that, within a couple of weeks of the Majzoub
brothers' deaths, suspects had been arrested and the plot
uncovered. How could the GOL be so good on this case and so
feckless on the previous 15 bombings, assassinations, and
assassination attempts? Murr said that he shared the same
feeling of disgust and had ordered G-2 chief Georges Khoury
to make a breakthrough on one of those 15 cases within 30
days. But, Murr said, "we have to face reality": On the
previous cases, Syria and Hizballah did not want the truth to
be known. When Hizballah and Syria combine forces to hide

the evidence, it is hard to solve the cases. In the case of
the Majzoubs, Hizballah and Syria did not provide any
interference. The Ambassador asked about the rumors that
Hizballah, in fact, had investigated the case and turned over
the suspects to the G-2. Murr insisted that the G-2 had been
responsible for the progress, with Hizballah's only
assistance confined to standing aside ("better than trying to
block us").


6. (S) Murr warned the Ambassador that he expected the
Majzoub case to have far-reaching, and very negative,
political ramifications. It will make the debate regarding
the disarmament of Hizballah that much harder, he said, with
Hizballah using the Majzoubs' deaths to reinforce its
arguments about the need for Lebanon to have an independent
"resistance." "I want to deal with Hizballah as a militia,
not as a resistance," Murr said, grumbling that the Israelis
seem to be in cahoots with Hizballah. "All those air
violations, now this -- no wonder Hizballah has popular
support for its weapons!"

WHAT WILL THE UNIIIC DO IF ASKED
TO INVESTIGATE THE MAJZOUB DEATHS?
--------------


7. (S) Murr also worried that the alleged Israeli
fingerprints on the Majzoub assassinations would start to
raise questions about whether Syria is really the culprit
behind the other 15 attacks, including the one Murr survived
on 7/12/05 and Rafiq Hariri's 2/14/05 murder. "Like it or
not, there's now a big question mark," he said. Already,
Murr claimed, there are people in Lebanon who are referring
to the UNSCRs passed since Gebran Tueni's murder on 12/12/05,
which opened up the possibility of the UNIIIC to look into
other attacks since October 2004. "What will Brammertz do if
he is asked officially by the GOL to look into this case?"
Murr indicated that the cabinet might not be able to resist
such pressure from the Shia, pro-Syrians, and "even Aoun."
The Ambassador said that, if he were Brammertz, he would
respond that it is clear that the GOL is making progress by
itself and that UNIIIC limited resources should go primarily
toward the Hariri investigation and secondarily to the other
attacks where the GOL has proven unable to make progress.
Murr said that Brammertz would have to look to see if there
are any connections between the Majzoub killings and any of
the other 15 attacks.


8. (S/NF) In a separate 6/14 meeting, Geir Pedersen, the UN
Secretary General's Personal Representative for Lebanon,

SIPDIS
echoed Murr's concerns about the possible implications on the
UNIIIC of the Majzoub brothers' deaths. He said that his
office has already been contacted by GOL officials, including
Foreign Minister Salloukh, and Hizballah contacts (likely
Wafiq Safa, Pedersen's usual interlocutor),to ask about
getting the UNIIIC involved in the Majzoub investigation.
Their questions, Pedersen said, were particularly pointed:
would the UNIIIC dare reject a request for help? The
Ambassador repeated his argument that, yes, the UNIIIC might
well be justified in rejecting a request for help, given the
forensics advances that the G-2 claims to have made on its
own. The Ambassador also reminded Pedersen that PIJ is a
terrorist organization, and there is no equivalence between
the Majzoub brothers and Rafiq Hariri.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (S/NF) If the Israelis did knock off the Majzoubs, they
probably seized a target of opportunity and of course did not
expect to be caught. Given the apparent closeness between
Abu Hamze Majzoub and Hassan Nasrallah, Israel would have
gotten a "two-fer" -- attack on PIJ and Hizballah
simultaneously. But, with suspects reportedly caught and now
singing, this operation, if it is Israeli-directed, could
easily damage our political agenda here. Certainly, as Murr
points out, the timing is abysmal from the perspective of
those trying to make the point that Hizballah is a militia
and that Lebanon has no need of "resistance."


10. (S/NF) Moreover, the UNIIIC, which under Brammertz'
leadership has tried to affect a professional and politically
neutral stance, will be in a bind if assistance is requested.
After repeated criticism about foreign interference in
Lebanon, the UNSC will be in an awkward position if the GOL
asks for some kind of statement condemning these attacks. As
the primary suspect is a Druse, this operation might further
increase the risk to Walid Jumblatt, if the suspect can be

shown to have relations with Jumblatt.


11. (S/NF) Worse, if any evidence turns up that links
(however tenuous the arguments) the suspects to any of the
other 15 recent attacks, then the popular perception that
Syria was the primary culprit behind them all -- from Marwan
Hamadeh (10/01/04) to Gebran Tueni (12/15/05) -- will start
to evaporate. We worry in particular that pro-Syrians or
Hizballah sympathizers within the Lebanese security or
judicial services will latch onto George Hawi's anti-Israeli
past or Samir Kassir's Palestinian heritage to build a case
that Israel killed them, too. We question whether Murr
should so confidently reject the notion that convenient
evidence can be planted.


12. (S/NF) But something about this whole case still
strikes us as a bit odd. Murr and others claim that the
evidence of Israeli fingerprints in the Majzoubs' deaths is
overwhelming. Maybe it is -- they certainly are trying to
make that case. But, at least so far, the public and
political reaction in Lebanon and beyond has been much more
muted than one would expect if the Lebanese truly had an
open-and-shut case of Israeli targetted killings in Lebanon.
Earlier this year, after the Israelis shot and killed someone
the Lebanese claimed was a shepherd boy who had inadvertantly
wandered across the unmarked Blue Line, the Foreign Minister
summoned the P-5 Ambassadors to pound on his coffee table,
and the Prime Minister ranted to one and all by phone.
Editorials and television commentators thundered
condemnations. Al-Jazeera had a field day. Maybe all of
this is to come, but its curious absence now -- when Lebanon
seems to have a stronger case of Israeli interference --
makes us wonder if there is less to the "Israelis-did-it"
argument than the Lebanese wish us to believe.
FELTMAN