MGLE01: SAUDI AMBASSADOR WORRIED ABOUT SINIORA'S

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001771

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/WERNER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2026
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV LE SY SA
SUBJECT: MGLE01: SAUDI AMBASSADOR WORRIED ABOUT SINIORA'S
SAFETY, DOWNBEAT ON SYRIA'S INTENTIONS


Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S) In a 5/5 meeting with the Ambassador, Saudi
Ambassador Abdulaziz Khoja insisted that there is no current
"Saudi initiative" to reduce Syrian-Lebanese tension. He
expressed deep worry about Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's
safety. He cited a recent article in al-Hayet by Syria's
Ambassador to Washington as particularly alarming, as Khoja
interpreted the article as an explicit threat to Siniora's
life akin to what faced Rafiq Hariri. Syria, Khoja insisted,
will work to undermine Lebanon's stability at least as long
as Siniora remains PM. The Syrians prefer one of two other
Sunnis as Lebanese PM: Saad Hariri, whom they want to lure
to Damascus with promises of concessions (perhaps even
including removal of President Emile Lahoud) to score PR
points offsetting the Brammertz investigation, or Najib
Mikati, whom they are convinced will be reliably pro-Syrian
despite recent wayward wanderings. Believing that Siniora
will remain in place for now unless killed, Khoja expressed
annoyance with Hariri for not supporting his PM more
vigorously and for not funding charitable projects in
Lebanon. Hariri, according to Khoja, has already lost the
north Lebanese Sunnis and is losing ground even in Beirut.
Uncharacteristically critical of Hizballah Secretary General
Hassan Nasrallah, Khoja described the 5/28 Blue Line
incidents and the 6/1 Hizballah demonstrations in Beirut as
"mistakes" that derived from Nasrallah's "arrogance." Still,
both incidents will, Khoja predicted, have a chilling impact
on the 6/8 National Dialogue session. End summary.

NO SAUDI INITIATIVE
--------------


2. (S) Responding to the Ambassador's questions about the
ever-active Lebanese rumor mill, Khoja insisted that Saudi
Arabia is not currently trying to mediate between Lebanon and
Syria. There is no "Saudi initiative" on the table, he said,
and he dismissed the Sudanese mediation as simply Arab League
nonsense. While Saudi Arabia believes that Syria and Lebanon
must strive to reduce the tensions between them, neither side
has asked the Kingdom to help. Given the ill will over the
January "Saudi initiative," Khoja expressed reluctance to get
involved without the parties' request. The Ambassador noted
that UNSCR 1559, UNSCR 1680, and the Lebanese National
Dialogue all place obligations on the Syrians to respond and
that Saudi Arabia would not seem to need a Syrian or Lebanese
request to encourage Syrian complicance. Khoja was
noncommittal.

IMAD MUSTAPHA REVEALS
THREAT TO SINIORA'S LIFE
--------------


3. (S) Khoja said that he was deeply worried about Fouad
Siniora's safety. In his view, the Syrians want him dead in
order to sow chaos in Lebanon. That message was made
explicitly clear in Syrian Ambassador to Washington Imad
Mustapha's barely veiled attack on Siniora in al-Hayet
newspaper recently. Urging the USG to take the article
seriously, Khoja said that he considered the article to be a
direct threat, linking Siniora to UNSCR 1680 in the same way
the Syrians tarred Rafiq Hariri prior to his murder with
UNSCR 1559. Khoja said that he has told Siniora that he must
take more precautions and stop appearing at so many public
events. (Note: The Ambassador saw Siniora at two
back-to-back open air events on Friday alone. End note.)
Pressed by the Ambassador, Khoja said that Saudi Arabia had
no specific information indicating a threat to Siniora's
life, but he was nevertheless convinced such a threat exists
and originates in Syria.

SYRIA PREFERS (FOR DIFFERENT REASONS)
EITHER HARIRI OR MIKATI AS PM
--------------


4. (S) Moreover, Khoja continued, Syria will never help
Lebanon or even support Lebanese stability and security for
at least as long as Siniora is PM. The Ambassador asked
whether Khoja truly believed that Syria would play a more
constructive role with any other PM freely selected by the
Lebanese. Siniora, after all, is a moderate, and some Sunnis
might be aggressively anti-Syrian. Khoja said that he
thought that Syria wanted one of two candidates to be PM and
would go quite far in offering concessions to support their

BEIRUT 00001771 002 OF 003


candidacies, at least at first. Syria, Khoja insisted, would
love for Saad Hariri to be PM, and the sooner the better.
The Syrians are starting to worry about the UNIIIC
investigation into Rafiq Hariri's death, and it would be a
great PR coup for them to host Hariri now. The Syrians would
probably go quite far in taking steps to encourage a Hariri
premiership, Khoja said, perhaps even to the point of a
solution to the problem of President Emile Lahoud. Syria's
price would be for Hariri to make an official visit to
Damascus, thus relieving the SARG of some of the
international odor clinging to them because of Rafiq Hariri's
assassination.


5. (S) Syria's other preferred PM candidate would be former
PM Najib Mikati, a longtime ally of Bashar al-Asad. Mikati,
Khoja said, has been slightly at odds since late last year
with the Asad family, and he is not a Syrian puppet. But the
Syrians believe that Mikati will pursue Syria-friendly,
pro-Arab policies. Khoja noted that he shared that analysis.
While Mikati is too smart to be involved with pro-Syrian
rallies in Lebanon such as the 6/1 Tripoli demonstrations
commemorating the anniversary of the 1987 assassination of
Rashid Karami, he is in general a safe choice for the
Syrians. Indeed, Mikati may intentionally be keeping the
Syrians a bit at arm's length for tactical reasons, perhaps
even with the SARG blessing, Khoja noted, in order to remain
a viable candidate as PM.

SAAD HARIRI NEEDS TO SUPPORT SINIORA
--------------


6. (S) Yet, whatever Syria prefers, Khoja speculated that
Siniora will remain the Lebanese PM for months to come,
"unless he is killed." Politically, it is "impossible" to
change the cabinet now, given the requirement that Lahoud
must sign a new cabinet decree. Given the probability of
Siniora's continued tenure, Khoja noted his annoyance with
Saad Hariri for not putting his full support behind the PM he
created. Siniora is fighting the Syrians and trying to
prevail against Hizballah and the Palestinian militants.
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is not helping him. March 14
"radicals" do not think Siniora's moderation is the right
approach. Michel Aoun is actively trying to undermine him.
Now more than ever, Siniora needs the full backing of Hariri,
yet Hariri is withholding his support and undermining him
with criticisms and under-the-table deals Siniora learns
about from others and only belatedly.


7. (S) Asked by the Ambassador why Hariri would be so
dismissive of Siniora at a time when Siniora's success or
failure will be attributed to the whole Hariri political
enterprise, Khoja mused that Hariri is getting bad advice
from a circle of jealous advisors who flatter Saad at
everyone else's expense. Look, Khoja said, at Hariri's inner
circle: Ghattas Khoury is not trusted by his own Maronite
community; Bassam Saba' is not trusted by his fellow Shia;
ditto for Farid Makkari with the Orthodox; the Sunnis don't
like fellow Sunnis Wissam Hassan and Hani Hamoud. "And no
one likes Salim Diab."

HARIRI NOT SPENDING MONEY,
THUS ERODING HIS POLITICAL SUPPORT
--------------


8. (S) Khoja (like many Embassy contacts) also claimed that
Hariri is not paying sufficient attention to his Lebanese
constituents. He has paid no money in the north since the
elections, Khoa said, with the various Hariri foundations
not oing any charitable work. As evidenced by the thosands
of people who turned out for the Rashid Kaami commemoration
that turned into a pro-Syrian ally, Hariri has already
"lost" Tripoli and the nrth. Hariri, Khoja insisted, is
even losing grond in Beirut, due to his frequent travels,
lack f charitable work, and general neglect of his
"plitical homework." Khoja said that he would have very
frank conversation with Hariri when he retuns this week for
the National Dialogue. He muse that Hariri still has one
foot in Saudi Arabia nd business, and one foot in Lebanon
and politic, which leads to neglect of the responsibilitiesof the latter. Whereas Rafiq Hariri could be both
politician and a businessman, and succeed at boh, Saad may
not have the experience or even desie to do so.

NASRALLAH'S "MISCALCULATIONS"
--------------


9. (S) The Ambassadr asked Khoja for his interpretation of

BEIRUT 00001771 003 OF 003


the 5/28 Blue Line violence started from the Lebanese side
and the 6/1 Hizballah riots responding to a television comedy
act paroding Nasrallah. Khoja (who has displayed a seeming
infatuation with Nasrallah in the past) was critical of
Nasrallah, calling both events "mistakes." With Iranian
backing and funding behind him and surrounded by fawning
supplicants, Nasrallah has become arrogant and miscalculated
the popular reaction against both incidents. Still, Khoja
thought, the power of Hizballah was clear in both events.
Whereas the March 14 leaders would have public opinion on
their side in approaching the June 8 National Dialogue
session, Khoja still believed that Hizballah's actions would
nevertheless have a chilling impact on the debate.
FELTMAN