Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BEIRUT1577
2006-05-19 15:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

MGLE01: NATIONAL ELECTORAL REFORM COMMISSION

Tags:  PGOV KDEM KMPI EAID SOCI LE 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1053
OO RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHLB #1577/01 1391533
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 191533Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3616
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHROV/AMEMBASSY VATICAN 0575
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001577 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH
DEPT FOR NEA/ELA AND NEA/PI - KIRBY
PARIS FOR ZEYA
LONDON FOR TSOU
TUNIS FOR MEPI - MULREAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KMPI EAID SOCI LE
SUBJECT: MGLE01: NATIONAL ELECTORAL REFORM COMMISSION
REPORTEDLY REACHES CONSENSUS

BEIRUT 00001577 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b
) and (d).

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001577

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH
DEPT FOR NEA/ELA AND NEA/PI - KIRBY
PARIS FOR ZEYA
LONDON FOR TSOU
TUNIS FOR MEPI - MULREAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KMPI EAID SOCI LE
SUBJECT: MGLE01: NATIONAL ELECTORAL REFORM COMMISSION
REPORTEDLY REACHES CONSENSUS

BEIRUT 00001577 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b
) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) According to a member of the national commission
charged with reforming the electoral law, the commission has
finally reached agreement on a draft law. The draft would
call for a mixed electoral system, one with both small
districts and large districts. According to this system, 79
Members of Parliament would be elected under a
first-past-the-post system at the "qada" (small district)
level, while the remaining 49 would be elected under a
proportional system at the "mohafaza" (large district) level.
The national commission member described this option as, "an
intermediate phase that guarantees minorities' rights pending
the abolition of sectarianism. " End summary.

A 60-40 SOLUTION
--------------


2. (C) On May 19, law professor Michel Tabet, a member of
the national commission appointed by Prime Minister Siniora
to rewrite the electoral law (and one of the commission's two
Maronite Christians),told us that he and his fellow
commission members had finally reached agreement on the
contentious issues of electoral systems and districts.
During a meeting on May 17, they unanimously agreed to adopt
a "mixed" electoral system. That is, 79 Members of
Parliament -- a little over 60 percent -- would be elected on
a majoritarian or first-past-the-post basis, running within
electoral districts the boundaries of which followed
Lebanon's small "qada" administrative districts. The
remaining 49 would be elected on a proportional basis within
electoral districts the boundaries of which followed the
larger "mohafazat" or governorates.

WHAT THE ELECTORAL MAP LOOKS LIKE
--------------


3. (C) Tabet told us that the proposed electoral district
map will consist of Lebanon's five historical "mohafazat," or

governorates: North Lebanon, South Lebanon, the Biqa', Mount
Lebanon, and Beirut. Parliamentary seats will be allocated
as follows:

-- North Lebanon: 17 MPs elected within the several small
districts that make up the governorate, plus 11 candidates
from the entire governorate.

-- South Lebanon: 14 MPs from the small districts, plus 9
from the entire governorate.

-- Biqa': 16 MPs from the small districts, plus 7 from the
entire governorate.

-- Mount Lebanon will consist of two units. The first --
made up of the districts of Jbeil, the Keserwan, and the Metn
-- will elect 22 MPs. The second -- made up of the districts
of Baabda, Aley, and the Chouf -- will also elect 22 MPs. In
addition, Mount Lebanon as a governorate will elect 13 MPs.

-- Beirut will consist of three units. Each unit will elect
10 MPs of its own. Beirut as a whole will elect 9 additional
MPs.

BACK TO DRAWING BOARD ON VOTING PROCESS,
CAMPAIGN FINANCE, AND WOMEN,S QUOTA
--------------


4. (C) Tabet noted that, according to the expected final
draft, elections will take place on a single day nationwide.
(Comment: Past elections have been a staggered process,
taking place in one governorate at a time over the course of
several consecutive Sundays -- a feature that made elections
susceptible to manipulation. End comment.) Voters will have
to cast ballots in two boxes, one for candidates running at
the governorate level, and another for candidates running in
the smaller district of the governorate in which the voter
resides.


BEIRUT 00001577 002.2 OF 002



5. (SBU) One consequence of this agreement will be that the
commission members must take another look at some of the
elements of the draft law on which they agreed some time ago.
These include regulations on campaign finance, which were
drafted on the assumption that MPs would be elected on a
uniform basis. Having now agreed on a mixed system of big
and small districts, commission members will have to come up
with two different ceilings for campaign financing: one for
candidates running at the "mohafaza" or governorate level,
and another, lower one for candidates running at the "qada"
or district level.


6. (C) Another part of the draft law now in need of revision
is the gender quota, which requires that 30 percent of any
group of candidates running together on a parliamentary
"list" be women. This quota will now apply only to those
candidates running at the "mohafaza" level, according to
Tabet.

GETTING TO "YES, MORE OR LESS"
--------------


7. (C) "Reaching a unanimous agreement over one single
electoral system was very difficult," Tabet told us. Several
members initially expressed reservations about this mixed
system. For example, Fayez Hajj Chahine, dean of the law
faculty of Beirut's University of Saint Joseph, advocated
bypassing the issue of drawing electoral district boundaries
altogether. (None of the commission members is a
topographer, Hajj Chahine had argued.)


8. (C) American University of Beirut professor Nawaf Salam,
a Sunni Muslim close to Siniora and the Hariri family, was
the main advocate on the commission of a mixed electoral
system. Salam, according to Tabet, originally proposed a
50-50 split between candidates elected at the "mohafazah" and
"qada" levels. Tabet claimed to have "strongly" opposed this
option, insisting instead on 60 percent of MPs elected at the
"qada" level. Lawyer Ziad Baroud -- the commission's other
Maronite member, who briefly resigned along with Tabet over
the districting issue -- at first opposed dividing Mount
Lebanon into two units. Baroud wanted to keep the Mount
Lebanon "mohafaza" united, in the interest of presumably more
effective Christian representation in Parliament.


9. (C) Tabet told us that the commission, with all the above
disagreements now in the rear-view mirror, will submit a
final draft law to the Prime Minister by the end of May.
Until then, commission members have agreed not to leak any
information to the media, but rather give the impression that
discussions are still ongoing and that no agreement has yet
been reached. Tabet expected the cabinet to endorse the
draft law without amendment, because "it is acceptable to all
parties." He expressed relief that all members were finally
able to reach agreement, because "discussions had been
extremely tough over the past couple of months, and none of
us could take it anymore."

COMMENT
--------------


10. (SBU) This apparent consensus on the commission -- in
which all of Lebanon's major confessional groups are
represented -- is a relief. The commission's work has seen
several extensions of an original deadline of early January
as well as the brief, show-stopping resignation of two of its
members (including Tabet). The mixed system they have
adopted will make for a challenging public awareness campaign
once the draft law is made public and submitted for approval
(first to Siniora's cabinet, then to Parliament). Without
pressure from grass-roots constituencies for electoral
reform, Parliament -- all of whose members were elected under
the current electoral law -- will have little incentive to
change the status quo. We are in touch with civil society
organizations to develop an aggressive public relations
strategy to accompany the roll-out of this draft. End
Comment.
FELTMAN