MGLE01: JUMBLATT BELIEVES HIZBALLAH INTENDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 001575

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/WERNER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2026
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV KDEM LE SY IR
SUBJECT: MGLE01: JUMBLATT BELIEVES HIZBALLAH INTENDS
PERMANENT STATE-WITHIN-A-STATE

REF: A. BEIRUT 1560


B. BEIRUT 1559

Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) On 5/19, Druse leader Walid Jumblatt hosted the P-3
Ambassadors, Argentine Ambassador, Norwegian Ambassador, and
UN representative Geir Pedersen for an open-air coffee in the
Chouf mountains. Jumblatt's read-out of Hassan Nasrallah's
hardline speech at the 5/16 National Dialogue session tracked
closely with earlier briefings (ref a),although Jumblatt
added details: Nasrallah claimed to have rockets that could
reach 125 kilometers into Israel, and he kept referring back
to the "people of the south" to give his presentation
populist credentials. Jumblatt agreed that the March 14
participants must coordinate their response to Nasrallah in
advance of the June 8 Dialogue session. He seemed open to
the suggestion that bridges be built to Michel Aoun, although
he guessed that Aoun would not be as receptive to the idea.
(See ref b for Aoun's comments.)


2. (C) Asked about Nasrallah's motivation, Jumblatt said
that the speech needed to be seen on the context of two other
developments: permanent Hizballah military installations and
communications lines currently being installed along the
Lebanese-Israeli border from Ghajjar to the Mediterranean,
and massive land purchases by the Shia of property in the
south that had been owned by Christians and Druse. It is
clear that Iranian money backs both the construction of
bunkers and the land purchases, Jumblatt insisted. "Where
else would they get the money?" In terms of the land sales,
the prices offered are so inflated that the Christian and
Druse who would normally keep the land are seduced into
selling. Usually, Hizballah-affiliated charities are the
purchasers.


3. (C) All of this "leads me to conclude," Jumblatt said,
that Hizballah intends to strengthen its state-within-a-state
status and make it permanent. The land purchases are
stretching in the direction of the Biqa'a Valley, suggesting
to Jumblatt that the Shia want to establish their own
"canton" that will stretch along the border with Israel and
the eastern bordern with Syria. While Hizballah will promote
cooperation with the rest of Lebanon, the rest of Lebanon
will not exercise control over this canton. And, because of
the confessional veto Hizballah brandishes due to its
near-monopoly on Shia political life, this canton will be
able to stop initiatives proposed by the GOL, whereas the
reverse is not true. This is surely by Iranian design,
Jumblatt said, "at least I think so."


4. (C) Jumblatt then shepherded his diplomatic guests to
the main event, a mutton-filled lunch with 150 Druse sheikhs,
all in traditional dress. Jumblatt gave an impromptu speech
praising the virtues of UNSCR 1680 and extolling the strong
support the international community has provided Lebanon
since the passage of UNSCR 1559. Waving his arms at the
ambassadors, Jumblatt told his sheikhs that the countries and
institutions represented had played key roles in restoring
Lebanon's sovereignty, and he explained to his sheikhs that
the most important question facing Lebanon today was not
whether but how to put the arms of Hizballah under the
control of the state. He also gave a blistering attack on
Syria, accusingthe Syrians of killing Lebanese political
leaders "from Kamal Jumblatt through Rafiq Hariri and up
Gebran Tueni." (Comment: Jumblatt clearly used the
ambassadors as a political message to his own followers.
Distant-second Druse leader Talal Arslan would have trouble
persuading even one ambassador to visit him. But, given the
content of Jumblatt's comments, it is political message that
we don't mind lending our presumed prestige to support. End
comment.)
FELTMAN