Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BEIRUT1507
2006-05-12 14:12:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

MGLE01: TWO "MARCH 14" MINISTERS AND ONE AOUN MP

Tags:  PREL PTER ELAB KISL ASEC LE 
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VZCZCXRO2845
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHLB #1507/01 1321412
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 121412Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3507
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHROV/AMEMBASSY VATICAN 0566
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001507 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH
LONDON FOR TSOU
PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER ELAB KISL ASEC LE
SUBJECT: MGLE01: TWO "MARCH 14" MINISTERS AND ONE AOUN MP
ON BEIRUT'S MAY 10 ANTI-GOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATION


BEIRUT 00001507 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001507

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH
LONDON FOR TSOU
PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER ELAB KISL ASEC LE
SUBJECT: MGLE01: TWO "MARCH 14" MINISTERS AND ONE AOUN MP
ON BEIRUT'S MAY 10 ANTI-GOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATION


BEIRUT 00001507 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Two of Prime Minister Siniora's "March 14" cabinet
ministers criticized Hizballah's support for a
anti-government demonstration on May 10, pointing at the
incongruity of Hizballah supporting an effort to bring down a
cabinet in which it participates. They were considerably
more forgiving of Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, saying
Berri and his Amal Movement had little choice but to go along
with the demonstration. One suggested that a low pro-Aoun,
Christian turnout in the demonstration might lead Aoun to
reconsider his strategy of trying to unseat the pro-Siniora
majority through early parliamentary elections. Saying that
Amal and Hizballah participated for "political" reasons, even
a pro-Aoun MP asked, "why would they demonstrate against
their own government?" The pro-Aoun MP said that Aoun
supporters demonstrated out of genuine grievances with the
Siniora government's economic policy, and -- as part of the
opposition -- were justified in doing so. End summary.

HIZBALLAH HAS ITS CAKE AND EATS IT
--------------


2. (C) In a May 11 conversation with Ambassador, USAID
mission director, and emboff, Tourism Minister Joe Sarkis
said it was "disturbing" that that fellow ministers in Prime
Minister Siniora's cabinet had participated in the
anti-government demonstration of May 10. It was particularly
ironic that the Minister of Energy and Water, Mohamad Fneish,
and the Minister of Labor, Trad Hamadeh -- a card-carrying
member of Hizballah and non-card-carrying supporter of
Hizballah, respectively -- were both active participants in
the demonstration, said Sarkis, who represents Samir Ja'ja's
Lebanese Forces in the cabinet.


3. (C) "They did nothing" to improve government services in
their areas of responsibility since taking office, Sarkis

said of Fneish and Hamadeh. Even so, they still had the gall
to help orchestrate public demonstrations against their
cabinet colleagues. "We are going to talk about this" in the
cabinet, he warned. Prime Minister Siniora had already
publicly referred to this problem in a "diplomatic way."
Sarkis doubted Siniora would be confrontational with Fneish
and Hamadeh, however.


4. (C) In a separate May 11 meeting, the Ambassador asked
acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat about the incongruity
of cabinet members at the forefront of protests aimed at
bringing down that cabinet. "It's difficult for us to
explain, too," said Fatfat, who like Sarkis is a "March 14"
minister, albeit one belonging to Sa'ad Hariri's Future
Current. He noted that Fneish, just a few weeks earlier, had
gone on record in support of hiring public sector employees
on a contract basis. Opposition to that initiative was the
ostensible reason for the May 10 demonstration.


5. (C) In any event, this was not the first time that
sitting cabinet ministers had maneuvered against their own
cabinet, Fatfat said. Even his fellow "March 14" allies,
such as Walid Jumblatt and Marwan Hamadeh, had played
quasi-opposition roles as members of previous cabinets. Of
course, "Walid is a special case," he laughed.

GIVING BERRI A PASS
--------------


6. (C) Sarkis was much more charitable towards Hizballah's
current partner and traditional rival in the Shi'a community,
Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and his Amal Movement.
Berri, like Hizballah, has representatives in Siniora's
cabinet and likewise endorsed (at the last minute) the May 10
demonstration. However, Berri was "not convinced" by the
rationale for the demonstration, Sarkis claimed. With all of
his parliamentary bloc members dependent on Hizballah votes,
Berri ultimately had no choice but to participate, in
Sarkis's view.


7. (C) Fatfat likewise explained away Berri's support for
the demonstration, saying Berri was in a "very difficult"
position politically. Had Berri not cast his lot with

BEIRUT 00001507 002.2 OF 003


Hizballah, he would have been "out of the game." Fatfat gave
Berri credit for playing a weak hand strongly, given that "90
percent" of Shi'as support Hizballah, not Amal.

LAF-ISF COOPERATION KEPT
DEMONSTRATION PEACEFUL
--------------


8. (C) Fatfat credited good coordination between the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the civilian Internal
Security Forces (ISF) for the fact that the May 10
demonstration took place without any violence. He said he
had been meeting more frequently with Defense Minister and
Deputy Prime Minister Elias al-Murr, as was ISF
director-general Ashraf Rifi with LAF commander Michel
Suleiman. There had also been good coordination with
Hizballah, according to Fatfat. Specifically, the government
had made it clear to Hizballah that it would hold Hizballah
responsible for any disruptions.

HOW EXTENSIVE WAS PRO-AOUN PARTICIPATION?
--------------


9. (C) Sarkis claimed that, despite a mobilization effort by
Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and its allies,
Christian participation in the May 10 demonstration was
negligible. What had appeared on the surface as a
significant pro-Aoun turnout was not what it had seemed.
Sarkis said he had heard from Lebanese security officials
that many of the demonstrators clad in ORANGE (the FPM's
official color) were in fact Shi'as from the southern suburbs
of Beirut, a stronghold of Hizballah.


10. (C) Sarkis suggested that this meant support for Aoun
among Christians was falling. "Yesterday was an important
day for Christians," he said, in that it led many of them to
conclude that Aoun's agenda -- linked as it was to the
agendas of Syria and Iran -- was not necessarily their own.
Sarkis expected Aoun to try to explain a disappointing
showing by claiming that only a segment of his support base,
mainly teachers and some other public employees, were
involved in the demonstration, and that the demonstration was
not a "political" issue.


11. (C) Fatfat went even further, claiming that there had
been no pro-Aoun Christians in the demonstration. Rather,
virtually all of the demonstrators were Shi'as. He noted
that (Hariri-owned) Future Television had even shown footage
of Hizballah supporters donning ORANGE clothing before
marching in the demonstration. Perhaps, Fatfat suggested,
Aoun had hesitated to mobilize his presumably strong support
in the Christian community. Alternatively, perhaps Hizballah
did not want to implicate Aoun directly in the demonstration,
fearing that it might provoke sectarian clashes.

OTHER GROUPS OPTED OUT, TOO
--------------


12. (C) As for other demographic and regional groups, Fatfat
said that the turnout from Tripoli, for example, had been as
low as 200-300 participants despite the best efforts made by
local pro-Syrian politicians, such as former Prime Minister
Omar Karami. Confessional calculations had probably been at
work here (after all, "it's Lebanon," Fatfat shrugged).
Specifically, many would-be participants from predominantly
Sunni Tripoli, figuring that the demonstration would be
dominated by another confessional group, the Shi'as, appeared
to have thought better of it and opted out.

WILL AOUN RECONSIDER HIS
"ELECTIONS NOW" STRATEGY?
--------------


13. (C) Fatfat did not think that the way Hizballah eclipsed
all other participants in the demonstration would have much
impact on Omar Karami, for example, who was on his way out of
Lebanese political life anyway. As for Aoun, Fatfat said,
"I'm asking myself: what will Aoun do now?" The experience
of May 10 might lead Aoun to reconsider his call for holding
parliamentary elections immediately. This seemed more
likely, given reports that the confrontational rhetoric of
the demonstration had not gone down well in Christian areas,
according to Fatfat.


BEIRUT 00001507 003.2 OF 003


AOUN BLOC MP: "WE'RE NOT IN GOVERNMENT,
AND WE HAVE A RIGHT TO DEMONSTRATE"
--------------


14. (C) In another May 11 meeting, MP Farid El Khazen, a
member of Aoun's parliamentary bloc, told emboff that
Hizballah's and Amal's participation in the May 10
demonstration was "political," and had nothing to do with the
Siniora government's economic reform plan. El Khazen said
that Aoun supporters participated in the demonstration
because they genuinely were unhappy with the government's
incomplete economic reform agenda. El Khazen criticized
Siniora's plan as consisting only of half measures, developed
without consulting anyone else in government or society.


15. (C) Asked if the FPM had an economic reform agenda of
its own, El Khazen replied that they were developing a
proposal that would take into account necessary
administrative reforms, especially plans to limit government
spending and corruption. "We support a small government and
small military. We have to start by cutting government
spending," El Khazen said.


16. (C) Asked about pro-Lahoud and pro-Syrian chants heard
during the May 10 demonstration, El Khazen again pointed to
Hizballah and Amal. "This is political," he said, "it had
nothing to do with economics or reform. They are in the
cabinet, why would they demonstrate against their own
government? We (the FMP) are out of government, though.
We're the opposition. We have a right to demonstrate."
FELTMAN