MGLE01: DEFEATED LEBANESE CLOSE TO SYRIA ORGANIZE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001337

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2016
TAGS: KDEM PINS PHUM PREL SY LE
SUBJECT: MGLE01: DEFEATED LEBANESE CLOSE TO SYRIA ORGANIZE
FOR A COMEBACK


Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: Section 1.4(b)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Elie Ferzli, former Minister of Information and
apologist for Syrian influence in Lebanon, is working to
form a political "movement" with other like-minded
politicians such as Former Interior Minister Suleiman
Franjieh, and Former PM Omar Karame. PolChief met with
Ferzli, former Minister of Defense Abdul-Rahim Murad, and,
separately, Franjieh to discuss their plans and the timing
of their announcement. The plan appeared to be to
constitute a group of elder statesmen who would launch
press attacks on the Hariri-led march 14 group, and if need
be, from the street. The new group will be an
extra-parliamentary opposition and lobbying group
combined. All of the new partisans of Ferzli's group share
with him an intimate relationship with Syria and electoral
failures in the 2005 elections. The appearance of this new
group is being pointed to by some as more confirmation of
continued Syrian influence in Lebanese affairs.


FRANJIEH--EVERYONE IS LOOKING OUT FOR THEMSELVES;
ONLY I AM LOOKING OUT FOR ME
--------------


2. (C) Suleiman Franjieh, the unashamed pro-Syrian of the
north, was statesmanlike as he spoke to Poloff about his
plans for the future. Faced with the failure of the
national dialogue, he said, and President Lahoud's
continued presence, it was his patriotic duty to act. He
plans to join others in forming a kind of
extra-parliamentary opposition to the present government
that will offer alternatives to the plans of Saad Hariri.
Franjieh did not speak of PM Siniora and the government,
but of Hariri and his clan. The people who are running
Lebanon today have failed, Franjieh said. He, and others,
intend to point out these failings so the Lebanese people
can see the truth. Among the egregious failings of the
government was the new election law proposal, that Franjieh
had not seen, which divided Lebanon into inequitable
districts leaving the Christians powerless to influence the
selection of their deputies. He labeled the economic
reform a collection of discredited ideas left over from
Rafiq Hariri. Franjieh said that the Siniora plan will
result in more taxes for the poor and profits for the rich
as they exploit the privatization of public utilities such
as the cell phone companies. He questioned the need for
privatization of any companies that remained profitable.
All these plans were little more than profit-making scams
run by Walid Jumblatt and his deputy Marwan Hamade,
Franjieh said.


3. (C) Franjieh intends to carry the fight to the
government. He plans to form his own political party,
separate of the other opposition formations, to represent
the interests of Christians in the north. When asked if
FPM leader Michel Aoun no longer represented his interests,
Franjieh rushed to say he would support Aoun with his own
new party. But he felt the specific interests of his own
people would be better represented through him. Franjieh
explained that he received a significant portion of the
popular vote in the 2005 elections. That result is
evidence of his leadership. The only reason he is not in
parliament, he insisted, is because of an unfair election
law. For Franjieh, one of the most alarming developments
recently is the election law proposal from the national
electoral law commission. Franjieh is convinced that any
law that is passed by the present parliament would be
engineered to support Hariri and his forces to the
detriment of all other voices in the country.


4. (C) At the same time, Franjieh was adamant that the
only solution for Lebanon's present political malaise was a
new election law followed by new parliamentary elections.
He predicted that new elections would bring a new
president. Short of new elections, Franjieh said the only
solution to the present stalemate would be agreement that
Aoun become president and replace Emile Lahoud at once.
With neither a new law, nor a new president, Franjieh said
the country would be frozen for the next year, awaiting the
end of extended Lahoud's term. In the meantime, Hariri
would have his way with the state and its resources.



BEIRUT 00001337 002 OF 002


FERZLI--HARIRI HAS BEEN MAKING A MESS OF
THINGS LONG ENOUGH--NOW IT IS OUR TURN
--------------


5. (C) Elie Ferzli and Abdul-Rahim Murad, both based in
Lebanon's Biqa'a valley, said they were prepared to take to
the street in protest of what they described as the Siniora
government's terrible record. Like Franjieh, they see the
government as a tool of Saad Hariri's, used to reinforce
his control of Lebanon's institutions. The only way out of
the coming disaster is the new political formation that
Ferzli is planning along with other like-minded political
outsiders. "Other voices must be heard." When asked about
the timing of his initiative, Ferzli said he and the others
had given the new government a grace period after the
elections. Now, they all agreed that the time was right
for them to step in. "Stepping in" means being openly
critical of the government when it makes a mistake. The
former Minister said the only solution for Lebanon would be
to nullify all laws passed under what Ferzli called the old
regime, including the election law, the results of the 2005
elections, and the extension of President Lahoud. Then,
parliament and the government would be dissolved and a new
election held. Although he was not clear on how such a
solution could be arrived at, Ferzli insisted that all was
possible. He said that he and his new movement would
support the Aoun parliamentary-opposition and make it
stronger through their support. However, he could not
contemplate joining the Free Patriotic Movement led by
Aoun. "We all have our own special interests," Ferzli
said.


6. (C) Ferzli also wants to counter what he sees as the
outrageous media campaigns that some in Lebanon have aimed
at Syria and at those who oppose Hariri's power play in
Lebanon. "I will wager the others are already calling us
pro-Syrians," Ferzli said. He listed incidents in the
Lebanese press, in which Lebanese officials verbally
attacked Syrian President Asad, saying that these attacks
strengthen Asad. But Syria is neither the inspiration nor
the support for Ferzli's new movement, he insisted. he and
his cohorts had taken a decision not to go to Syria before
his group launched its manifesto, Ferzli said proudly .
Murad added that he normally traveled once a month to Syria
where he has business interests. But after local reporters
labeled him pro-Syrian, he doubled his visits. Those
visits, according to Murad, have included interviews with
the Syrian press in which he challenges the Asad regime and
criticizes their doings in Lebanon. They know me and they
publish my criticisms," he pronounced.


7. (C) Ferzli said he and his partners intended to be
constructive in their criticism of the government. His
colleague Murad launched into a long list of grievances
against the Hariri-led March 14th movement, citing
everything from minor graft and influence-peddling to
complicity in the looting of public monies. Murad said
that Hariri and his fellow March 14 partisans had polarized
the country, weakened its institutions, and made Lebanon
fertile ground for Sunni extremism. After listing the woes
of Lebanon, Murad told Poloff that he and his fellow
travelers welcomed any initiative designed to help Lebanon,
be it Saudi, Egyptian or American. Because, Murad said,
the Lebanese cannot be expected to reach a solution
themselves. The former Minister of Defense blamed Hariri
for this Lebanese helplessness; "he has the power to
corrupt any Lebanese process."
FELTMAN