MGLE01: HARIRI SAYS HE IS READY TO CONFRONT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001277

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2026
TAGS: EG IR KISL LE PGOV PREL PTER SA SY
SUBJECT: MGLE01: HARIRI SAYS HE IS READY TO CONFRONT
HIZBALLAH AT NATIONAL DIALOGUE

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) During an April 25 meeting with MP Saad Hariri, the
Ambassador and econoff briefed him on Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora's visit to Washington last week. Hariri agreed the
visit was a success, and was also heartened by what he
described as revitalized Saudi and Egyptian support for
Lebanon. He explained that Saudi Arabia and Egypt are losing
patience with Syria and are fearful of Iran's nuclear
program. Hariri said that Iran is pumping USD 300-400
million into Lebanon annually to support Hizballah and other
extremists. He claimed that Hizballah Secretary General
Hassan Nasrallah has no strategic independence from Iran.
Dismissing others' apparent infatuation with Nasrallah,
Hariri said he will meet with Nasrallah on April 26 and
deliver a firm and clear message. Hariri said he would not
let Hizballah backtrack on the issue of its arms when the
national dialogue resumes April 28. Conceding that no
progress on the presidency is likely at the April 28
dialogue, Hariri urged the Ambassador to scare Aoun adviser
Gibran Bassil to deter Aoun from protecting Hizballah. End
summary.

SINIORA VISIT HERALDS
INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT
--------------


2. (C) On April 25, the Ambassador and econoff met with MP
Saad Hariri, the head of the Future Movement, at his home in
Quraytem. The Ambassador began by briefing Hariri on Prime
Minister Fouad Siniora's visit to Washington last week.
Siniora was impressive and he represented Lebanon well, the
Ambassador said. Hariri, who was planning to meet Siniora in
the afternoon, agreed. Hariri continued that he was
optimistic not only because of the successful visit to the
US, but also because Egypt and Saudi Arabia were losing
patience with Syria. He explained that Prince Saud al-Faisal
had been personally offended when the US and Hariri rejected
the Saudi Initiative in January. The US and Lebanon should
have responded with a counter-proposal, and not an outright
rejection, Hariri asserted. But now, Saudi Arabia and Egypt
have returned back to the side of Lebanon along with public
opinion throughout the Arab World, according to Hariri.
Hariri said he talked to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak
yesterday, and Mubarak advised him that there is no benefit
in a Mubarak trip to Syria. Mubarak said that nothing would
be accomplished, according to Hariri.


3. (C) Hariri said that Saudi Arabia and Egypt on are the
same side as the USG with regards to Iran. They are
concerned about Iran's nuclear program. Saudi Arabia and
Egypt are atypically asking for more US involvement in the
region, not less, because of Iran. They are scared of all
the cards Iran holds: Syria, Hizballah, and Hamas. Hariri
asserted that the key to helping Lebanon would be to pressure
Syria through Iran. And the Arab states are on Lebanon's
side on this issue, he said.

READY TO CONFRONT THE
IRAN-HIZBALLAH AXIS
--------------


4. (C) Turning to the Iranian-Hizballah nexus, Hariri
reported that Iran is pouring money into Lebanon "like
crazy." He estimated that Iran sends USD 300-400 million to
Lebanon annually to support Hizballah, Palestinian militant
groups, and Sunni extremists. The Ambassador asked Hariri
how much independence Hizballah Secretary General Hassan
Nasrallah had from Iran. "Zero," replied Hariri, "On
domestic issues he is okay, but not on strategic issues . . .
not on Shebaa Farms." Hariri explained that Nasrallah does
not appear to think that the Iranian regime is capable of
making a mistake that could cost Hizballah or Lebanon. Of
course, Nasrallah also appears bound religiously to Iran
because it is the Wilayet al-Faqi.


5. (C) Hariri added that he will meet with Nasrallah
tomorrow and intends to deliver a firm message. "He is a
liar. He will try to go back on the dialogue, but I will not
let him." With the national dialogue set to resume on April
28, Hariri said he was ready to stand up to Hizballah on the
arms issue. "Hizballah thinks (Nasrallah) is coming to charm
us with his lies. But we won't be charmed. They will try to
backtrack on Palestinian arms, but we won't let them. I

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won't let them."


6. (C) The Ambassador asked Hariri about his meetings with
Nasrallah and why they last so long. Hariri replied with a
smirk that while the meetings last six hours, the first two
hours are "bullshit." Hariri claimed that once they began
discussing business he spoke frankly to Nasrallah. Hariri
said he was not awe struck at Nasrallah's gravitas. "Not
like you Americans . . . why do all Americans who meet him
get infatuated with him?," Hariri asked rhetorically,
referring to US reporters who interview the Hizballah leader.
(Comment: As the Ambassador and econoff arrived at Hariri's
office, a prominent Washington Post reporter was leaving,
commenting in passing how impressed she was with Nasrallah,
whom she had met the previous day. End comment.) Hariri
said he had challenged Nasrallah on why he was so critical of
Siniora and his attempts at reform. He also criticized
Nasrallah for allowing Iran to intervene so deeply in
Lebanon. Then, without irony, Hariri seemed to acknowledge
Nasrallah's charisma. He recalled how last time he met with
Nasrallah, he intended a 30-minute meeting to deliver a clear
message. Hariri gave the message but was then invited to
dinner, turning the 30-minute encounter into several hours.


YOU MUST SCARE AOUN
--------------


7. (C) When the national dialogue resumes, Hariri expected
no progress on the presidency. Hariri planned to announce
after the meeting that MP Michel Aoun and Hizballah are
against change and, because of them, the country shall stay
as is. Nonetheless, Hariri said that he was optimistic that
a March 14 candidate could still replace President Emile
Lahoud. He said that March 14 will back either former MP
Nassib Lahoud, MP Boutros Harb, or Minister of Social Affairs
Nayla Mouawad. Hariri said that he and his allies will be
very tough on Aoun at the national dialogue, especially on
the issue of Hizballah's arms. He clarified that March 14
will use Aoun's closeness to Hizballah to embarrass him.
Hariri predicted that Aoun would not defend Hizballah's arms.


8. (C) Hariri then asked the Ambassador to deliver a strong
message to Aoun. Stridently, Hariri said that the Embassy
must scare the Aounists. Don't meet with Aoun. Rather,
invite Aoun's senior adviser Gibran Bassil to the Embassy and
"chew him out," Hariri said. "Tell them we know what you are
doing and we are watching you; we know you are pushing Aoun
to Hizballah," Hariri advised. "You need to scare Bassil."
Hariri also advised that the Embassy deliver similar messages
to Aounist MPs. Hariri continued that he wants to find the
killers of his father, but Aoun does not seem to.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) While some March 14 participants had cautioned us
that Hariri was uncomfortable with the reception Fouad
Siniora received in Washington, Saad seemed genuinely to
welcome the positive reviews of Siniora's performance. But
we are struck by the lack of good or new ideas from Saad
about the way forward in face of the ongoing political
deadlock in Lebanon. Saad criticizes Aoun publicly and
privately (with Aoun more than returning the favor),and he
criticizes -- to us, at any rate -- Nasrallah and Hizballah.
Yet he does not play up his March 14 Christian partners in
ways that might reduce support for Aoun. And, despite the
apparent futility of the exercise, he continues to meet for
hours with Nasrallah, on a regular basis. With the March 14
bloc and the Aoun bloc thwarting each other's ambitions,
Hizballah thus continues to be courted by both. Hariri tells
us he hates Hizballah but must deal with the organization,
and Aoun tells us he can control Hizballah. But both, in our
view, are being used by Hizballah in order to maintain the
status quo.
FELTMAN